Very low if the Lakers had it their way. They wanna be players, movers and shakers, bring "Laker" basketball back to LA, whatever "Laker" basketball means. They are open for business, but the media will have you believe nobody is interested.
Ya i just the think the options are limited and the timing is very tricky. the valuable of a pick goes down once u select the player; and it'd effect our cap.
Ingram shot 68.2% from the line at Duke, which is almost exactly his NBA average: 66.2%. Lonzo shot 67.3% from the line at UCLA and has been even worse in the NBA: 43.7%. Hunter shot 77.3% in two years at Virginia (75.5% frosh/78.3% soph) which bodes well for his NBA future. As of February 10th, Synergy logged Hunter at 13/24 (54.2%) from NBA 3PT range. Obviously a tiny sample size, but it's another positive data point for him. The NBA 3PT numbers for Coby White 31/73 (42.1%) and Jarrett Culver 11/37 (29.7%) are also worth paying attention to as both are players in our drafting range. From the line, White finished the year at 80% while Culver shot 70.7%.
I wonder how rare Zo's steep dropoff at the line is historically. Seems completely out of the ordinary.
Everything about Lonzo's shot is weird. They should've gotten him a shooting coach as a rookie and decided if his shot needed to be changed right from the beginning. The Lakers F'd that up from the start. Stupid Luke.
another thing about Garland... even if he comes into next season 100% recovered, he basically missed his entire college freshman season which would have been essential development. So he likely is not ready to contribute much to a NBA contender for a good 1-2 seasons.
The Lakers cant afford that luxury.
You're right about Hunter being more "ready", but should the Lakers draft a guy at four because one guy has more weight while the other guy is skinny?
I love Hunter's game, but he only has role-player potential. Garland has, at minimum to me, best player on a playoff team potential.
It's clear as day to me who is the better player. When you mix in that Garland has the better shooting stroke -- the Laker's biggest need -- the answer becomes even clearer.
Hunter is more ready, you're right, but I'm cool with Garland being a role-playing backup shooter in the mode of Steve Kerr for a couple of years until he figures out how to be more than that and puts on weight.
Point is: The Lakers have time to nurture talent, especially for a talented shooter.
Also of note, when constructing lineups with Hunter on this team, I found it difficult to get all of Kuzma, Hunter, Ingram, and James their minutes. There was a bit of a logjam there. Whereas Garland, as a shooter from the backcourt, I was able to cleanly etch out a minutes role for him as a foil to Ball and scoring spark off the bench. Something to consider, IMO.
I asked this in the other draft forum. But I'll ask it here too, because I'm generally curious what the hive mind can come up with.
Over the last 10 years can anyone think of a prospect like Garland, a top 10 draft pick guard with handles, shooting range and passing, that turned out to be a bust? Dante Exum comes to mind (not a complete bust, but certainly didn't live up to expectations) and the jury is still out on Fultz. Maybe Napier (not top 10)? Tyreke Evans? Johnny Flynn?
Edit: I know the players listed have flaws, I'm just trying to think of top 10 guards that were highly rated that turned out to be flops. Maybe Mudiay?
For the past few years, Nylon Calculus has put forward a prediction formula for how college 3PT shooting translates to the NBA. With a few minor exceptions, they've been completely on the money within 1-3% on most every prospect. It turns out FT% is more correlated to NBA 3PT success than NCAA 3PT%.
I went and ran the numbers for some of the top draft prospects this year with the two models that Nylon Calculus listed for predicting NBA 3pt% using a combination of College 3P%, FT%, 3PA/40 and 3PM/40.
Nylon Calculus model #1 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .175 + .128 * Free Throw Percentage + .00449 * 3PTA per 40 + .163 * Three Point Percentage
Nylon Calculus model #2 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .22 + .01571 * 3pt Made per 40 + .1389 * Free Throw Pct
For the variance in the last column, I just averaged the two models and compared it against their NBA percentage. I also used each player's full college stats and not their last year only.
This is what I came up with and added the young Lakers for comparison:
Code:
3P% FT% 3PM/40 3PA/40 Model 1 Model 2 NBA 3P% VAR (Model1/2)
Zion Williamson 33.80% 64.00% 1.0 2.9 32.50% 32.46%
Ja Morant 34.30% 81.00% 1.9 5.2 35.79% 36.24%
RJ Barrett 30.80% 66.50% 2.2 7.1 34.22% 34.69%
Darius Garland 47.80% 75.00% 3.2 6.6 37.85% 37.44%
De'Andre Hunter 41.90% 77.30% 1.4 3.4 35.75% 34.94%
Coby White 35.30% 80.00% 3.3 9.3 37.67% 38.30%
Jarrett Culver 34.10% 70.70% 1.9 5.5 34.58% 34.81%
Cameron Reddish 33.30% 77.20% 3.3 10.0 37.30% 37.91%
Rui Hachimura 31.60% 74.60% 0.5 1.5 32.87% 33.15%
Nassir Little 26.90% 77.00% 0.9 3.2 33.18% 34.11%
Fletcher Magee 43.50% 90.80% 5.8 13.7 42.36% 43.72%
Carsen Edwards 36.80% 81.70% 4.2 11.9 39.30% 39.95%
Ty Jerome 39.20% 78.80% 2.1 5.4 36.40% 36.24%
Kevin Porter Jr 41.20% 52.20% 2.4 5.9 33.55% 33.02%
Joined: 06 Oct 2018 Posts: 5181 Location: Sin City
Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 11:27 pm Post subject:
Staccatos wrote:
Jack's Room wrote:
For the past few years, Nylon Calculus has put forward a prediction formula for how college 3PT shooting translates to the NBA. With a few minor exceptions, they've been completely on the money within 1-3% on most every prospect. It turns out FT% is more correlated to NBA 3PT success than NCAA 3PT%.
I went and ran the numbers for some of the top draft prospects this year with the two models that Nylon Calculus listed for predicting NBA 3pt% using a combination of College 3P%, FT%, 3PA/40 and 3PM/40.
Nylon Calculus model #1 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .175 + .128 * Free Throw Percentage + .00449 * 3PTA per 40 + .163 * Three Point Percentage
Nylon Calculus model #2 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .22 + .01571 * 3pt Made per 40 + .1389 * Free Throw Pct
For the variance in the last column, I just averaged the two models and compared it against their NBA percentage. I also used each player's full college stats and not their last year only.
This is what I came up with and added the young Lakers for comparison:
Code:
3P% FT% 3PM/40 3PA/40 Model 1 Model 2 NBA 3P% VAR (Model1/2)
Zion Williamson 33.80% 64.00% 1.0 2.9 32.50% 32.46%
Ja Morant 34.30% 81.00% 1.9 5.2 35.79% 36.24%
RJ Barrett 30.80% 66.50% 2.2 7.1 34.22% 34.69%
Darius Garland 47.80% 75.00% 3.2 6.6 37.85% 37.44%
De'Andre Hunter 41.90% 77.30% 1.4 3.4 35.75% 34.94%
Coby White 35.30% 80.00% 3.3 9.3 37.67% 38.30%
Jarrett Culver 34.10% 70.70% 1.9 5.5 34.58% 34.81%
Cameron Reddish 33.30% 77.20% 3.3 10.0 37.30% 37.91%
Rui Hachimura 31.60% 74.60% 0.5 1.5 32.87% 33.15%
Nassir Little 26.90% 77.00% 0.9 3.2 33.18% 34.11%
Fletcher Magee 43.50% 90.80% 5.8 13.7 42.36% 43.72%
Carsen Edwards 36.80% 81.70% 4.2 11.9 39.30% 39.95%
Ty Jerome 39.20% 78.80% 2.1 5.4 36.40% 36.24%
Kevin Porter Jr 41.20% 52.20% 2.4 5.9 33.55% 33.02%
Tyler Herro has a shorter wingspan than his height.
Okay so scratch the long part. Watching him play this year he looked like Kentucky's best perimeter defender. But yeah short wingspan.
Interestingly enough, Herro measured a quarter inch taller than Redick (6'4.25" vs. 6'4") with the exact same wingspan (6'3.25"). Redick must've worn flip flops though because he measured 6'4.75" in shoes while Herro measured 6'6" in shoes. In terms of body, Herro weighed in 2.5 pounds heavier than Redick, with the same amount of body fat (7%). Keep in mind that Herro is 19 while Redick was 22 at the time.
Redick was drafted 11th overall in 2007, but you could argue he's top 5 or just outside it in a redraft. Aldridge, Millsap, Lowry, Rondo, and Brandon Roy (pre-injury) are the only ones I'd consider taking before him.
Joined: 15 Sep 2012 Posts: 29353 Location: La La Land
Posted: Sun May 19, 2019 12:15 am Post subject:
PHILosopher wrote:
Over the last 10 years can anyone think of a prospect like Garland, a top 10 draft pick guard with handles, shooting range and passing, that turned out to be a bust? ]
Trey Burke comes to mind. He isn't a bust. But he was a small guard taken top 10. And he hasn't set the league on fire. _________________ "Every hurt is a lesson, and every lesson makes you better”
For the past few years, Nylon Calculus has put forward a prediction formula for how college 3PT shooting translates to the NBA. With a few minor exceptions, they've been completely on the money within 1-3% on most every prospect. It turns out FT% is more correlated to NBA 3PT success than NCAA 3PT%.
I went and ran the numbers for some of the top draft prospects this year with the two models that Nylon Calculus listed for predicting NBA 3pt% using a combination of College 3P%, FT%, 3PA/40 and 3PM/40.
Nylon Calculus model #1 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .175 + .128 * Free Throw Percentage + .00449 * 3PTA per 40 + .163 * Three Point Percentage
Nylon Calculus model #2 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .22 + .01571 * 3pt Made per 40 + .1389 * Free Throw Pct
For the variance in the last column, I just averaged the two models and compared it against their NBA percentage. I also used each player's full college stats and not their last year only.
This is what I came up with and added the young Lakers for comparison:
Code:
3P% FT% 3PM/40 3PA/40 Model 1 Model 2 NBA 3P% VAR (Model1/2)
Zion Williamson 33.80% 64.00% 1.0 2.9 32.50% 32.46%
Ja Morant 34.30% 81.00% 1.9 5.2 35.79% 36.24%
RJ Barrett 30.80% 66.50% 2.2 7.1 34.22% 34.69%
Darius Garland 47.80% 75.00% 3.2 6.6 37.85% 37.44%
De'Andre Hunter 41.90% 77.30% 1.4 3.4 35.75% 34.94%
Coby White 35.30% 80.00% 3.3 9.3 37.67% 38.30%
Jarrett Culver 34.10% 70.70% 1.9 5.5 34.58% 34.81%
Cameron Reddish 33.30% 77.20% 3.3 10.0 37.30% 37.91%
Rui Hachimura 31.60% 74.60% 0.5 1.5 32.87% 33.15%
Nassir Little 26.90% 77.00% 0.9 3.2 33.18% 34.11%
Fletcher Magee 43.50% 90.80% 5.8 13.7 42.36% 43.72%
Carsen Edwards 36.80% 81.70% 4.2 11.9 39.30% 39.95%
Ty Jerome 39.20% 78.80% 2.1 5.4 36.40% 36.24%
Kevin Porter Jr 41.20% 52.20% 2.4 5.9 33.55% 33.02%
So what this data is saying is... there is a possibility (however slight it may be) that Garland only shoots threes in the NBA at a rate that is 2-6% better than Lonzo... while measuring 6'0" to 6'2" without his shoes (does anyone know?)... and appearing a non-factor in defense? Yet some are 1000% sure he should be a lock for the #4 pick and has "best player on a playoff team potential at a minimum"? My, oh my.
He seems talented and could very well be BPA at #4, only one way to find out... but since he has only played 5 games at the college level, skipped the combine, and I don't really have a good sense of his size/speed/agility/strength/mental intangibles/etc... I'm certainly not going to make similar such bold predictions. Instead I'm simply going to hope the FO brings him in for a work-out and that he'll impress them enough there with his skills/shooting. If he's as good as some here are thinking, that could be nice pick.
Nice work using the model btw!!
Last edited by LAL1947 on Sun May 19, 2019 6:17 am; edited 5 times in total
Over the last 10 years can anyone think of a prospect like Garland, a top 10 draft pick guard with handles, shooting range and passing, that turned out to be a bust? ]
Trey Burke comes to mind. He isn't a bust. But he was a small guard taken top 10. And he hasn't set the league on fire.
Dont watch all of his games but hes has some huge games in his rookie season.wait are we talking burke or young? _________________ Coach Vogel, Kidd, Hollins
Max slot : Kawhi
Best case scenario we trade down. Hawks seem to be very high on Reddish. Grab him at 4 ask for ATL's picks at 8 and 10. This is how I see it shaking out
Pels - Zion
Grizz - Morant
Knicks - Barrett
Lakers - Reddish
Cavs - Hunter or Culver
Suns - Garland
Bulls - White
Grab the leftover of Hunter/Culver and draft Hayes or Clarke at 10. I have a feeling the Wiz will reach for Bol or Doumbouya at 9.
Just a question if Knicks decide to draft Garland and RJ Barrett falls to #4 do you still make the trade with the Hawks or do we become happy that a game changer fell to us?
Interesting. I don't see the Knicks passing on Barrett but if they do I would just grab him at 4 and be done with it. This draft is basically Zion/Ja/Barrett.
No it's not.
The year Tatum Lonzo and Fultz (consensus top 3)were drafted Mitchell, Fox, Markanen, and our own Kuzma all outperformed the top 3 at times and on redraft would go ahead of those three.
Devin Booker was drafted after Porzingis, Kat, Russell Mudiay...
We need to draft this year's Booker/Mitchell
Barrett us overrated tbh
For the past few years, Nylon Calculus has put forward a prediction formula for how college 3PT shooting translates to the NBA. With a few minor exceptions, they've been completely on the money within 1-3% on most every prospect. It turns out FT% is more correlated to NBA 3PT success than NCAA 3PT%.
I went and ran the numbers for some of the top draft prospects this year with the two models that Nylon Calculus listed for predicting NBA 3pt% using a combination of College 3P%, FT%, 3PA/40 and 3PM/40.
Nylon Calculus model #1 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .175 + .128 * Free Throw Percentage + .00449 * 3PTA per 40 + .163 * Three Point Percentage
Nylon Calculus model #2 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .22 + .01571 * 3pt Made per 40 + .1389 * Free Throw Pct
For the variance in the last column, I just averaged the two models and compared it against their NBA percentage. I also used each player's full college stats and not their last year only.
This is what I came up with and added the young Lakers for comparison:
Code:
3P% FT% 3PM/40 3PA/40 Model 1 Model 2 NBA 3P% VAR (Model1/2)
Zion Williamson 33.80% 64.00% 1.0 2.9 32.50% 32.46%
Ja Morant 34.30% 81.00% 1.9 5.2 35.79% 36.24%
RJ Barrett 30.80% 66.50% 2.2 7.1 34.22% 34.69%
Darius Garland 47.80% 75.00% 3.2 6.6 37.85% 37.44%
De'Andre Hunter 41.90% 77.30% 1.4 3.4 35.75% 34.94%
Coby White 35.30% 80.00% 3.3 9.3 37.67% 38.30%
Jarrett Culver 34.10% 70.70% 1.9 5.5 34.58% 34.81%
Cameron Reddish 33.30% 77.20% 3.3 10.0 37.30% 37.91%
Rui Hachimura 31.60% 74.60% 0.5 1.5 32.87% 33.15%
Nassir Little 26.90% 77.00% 0.9 3.2 33.18% 34.11%
Fletcher Magee 43.50% 90.80% 5.8 13.7 42.36% 43.72%
Carsen Edwards 36.80% 81.70% 4.2 11.9 39.30% 39.95%
Ty Jerome 39.20% 78.80% 2.1 5.4 36.40% 36.24%
Kevin Porter Jr 41.20% 52.20% 2.4 5.9 33.55% 33.02%
Garland = smaller d angelo russell without the passing and the swag. So no thanks. He can be good but will take time to develop.
For me, it's Culver or Hunter or bust.
Culver passes the eye test of a pro player who can play both ends.
Hunter is a work in progress but has the tools to be a solid NBA player. Specially on defense.
Comparing Garland to Russell is flat-out lazy. Hell, all you did was sat to yourself, "They both can shoot and don't play defense, so that's enough to merit a comparison."
No sir; it's not.
Garland has speed. Russell sell does not.
Garland can break down defenses. Russell cannot.
Garland's speed and ability to break down defenses makes him different than Russell.
A much better comparison is Damon Lillard without the jumping ability. Irving, Terrell Brandon, Mark Price, or even Terry Porter.
Also, Garland's shooting form is beautiful. His footwork in preparation for shooting with knees bent and ass out is textbook. You can tell he has pedigree. I don't know if he was raised and taught by his father, former Warriors PG Winston Garland (a solid pro ), but whoever taught him, taught him well. My guess is that it was his pops.
At worst, with Garland, you'll get a pure shooter who can contribute on the level of Dana Barros or Patty Mills (with Spurs).
At best, you'll get a guy who will get a high percentage shot against anyone. I love how he doesn't seem to force his offense.
Last edited by Joe Pesci on Sun May 19, 2019 6:58 am; edited 1 time in total
For the past few years, Nylon Calculus has put forward a prediction formula for how college 3PT shooting translates to the NBA. With a few minor exceptions, they've been completely on the money within 1-3% on most every prospect. It turns out FT% is more correlated to NBA 3PT success than NCAA 3PT%.
I went and ran the numbers for some of the top draft prospects this year with the two models that Nylon Calculus listed for predicting NBA 3pt% using a combination of College 3P%, FT%, 3PA/40 and 3PM/40.
Nylon Calculus model #1 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .175 + .128 * Free Throw Percentage + .00449 * 3PTA per 40 + .163 * Three Point Percentage
Nylon Calculus model #2 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .22 + .01571 * 3pt Made per 40 + .1389 * Free Throw Pct
For the variance in the last column, I just averaged the two models and compared it against their NBA percentage. I also used each player's full college stats and not their last year only.
This is what I came up with and added the young Lakers for comparison:
Code:
3P% FT% 3PM/40 3PA/40 Model 1 Model 2 NBA 3P% VAR (Model1/2)
Zion Williamson 33.80% 64.00% 1.0 2.9 32.50% 32.46%
Ja Morant 34.30% 81.00% 1.9 5.2 35.79% 36.24%
RJ Barrett 30.80% 66.50% 2.2 7.1 34.22% 34.69%
Darius Garland 47.80% 75.00% 3.2 6.6 37.85% 37.44%
De'Andre Hunter 41.90% 77.30% 1.4 3.4 35.75% 34.94%
Coby White 35.30% 80.00% 3.3 9.3 37.67% 38.30%
Jarrett Culver 34.10% 70.70% 1.9 5.5 34.58% 34.81%
Cameron Reddish 33.30% 77.20% 3.3 10.0 37.30% 37.91%
Rui Hachimura 31.60% 74.60% 0.5 1.5 32.87% 33.15%
Nassir Little 26.90% 77.00% 0.9 3.2 33.18% 34.11%
Fletcher Magee 43.50% 90.80% 5.8 13.7 42.36% 43.72%
Carsen Edwards 36.80% 81.70% 4.2 11.9 39.30% 39.95%
Ty Jerome 39.20% 78.80% 2.1 5.4 36.40% 36.24%
Kevin Porter Jr 41.20% 52.20% 2.4 5.9 33.55% 33.02%
For the past few years, Nylon Calculus has put forward a prediction formula for how college 3PT shooting translates to the NBA. With a few minor exceptions, they've been completely on the money within 1-3% on most every prospect. It turns out FT% is more correlated to NBA 3PT success than NCAA 3PT%.
I went and ran the numbers for some of the top draft prospects this year with the two models that Nylon Calculus listed for predicting NBA 3pt% using a combination of College 3P%, FT%, 3PA/40 and 3PM/40.
Nylon Calculus model #1 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .175 + .128 * Free Throw Percentage + .00449 * 3PTA per 40 + .163 * Three Point Percentage
Nylon Calculus model #2 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .22 + .01571 * 3pt Made per 40 + .1389 * Free Throw Pct
For the variance in the last column, I just averaged the two models and compared it against their NBA percentage. I also used each player's full college stats and not their last year only.
This is what I came up with and added the young Lakers for comparison:
Code:
3P% FT% 3PM/40 3PA/40 Model 1 Model 2 NBA 3P% VAR (Model1/2)
Zion Williamson 33.80% 64.00% 1.0 2.9 32.50% 32.46%
Ja Morant 34.30% 81.00% 1.9 5.2 35.79% 36.24%
RJ Barrett 30.80% 66.50% 2.2 7.1 34.22% 34.69%
Darius Garland 47.80% 75.00% 3.2 6.6 37.85% 37.44%
De'Andre Hunter 41.90% 77.30% 1.4 3.4 35.75% 34.94%
Coby White 35.30% 80.00% 3.3 9.3 37.67% 38.30%
Jarrett Culver 34.10% 70.70% 1.9 5.5 34.58% 34.81%
Cameron Reddish 33.30% 77.20% 3.3 10.0 37.30% 37.91%
Rui Hachimura 31.60% 74.60% 0.5 1.5 32.87% 33.15%
Nassir Little 26.90% 77.00% 0.9 3.2 33.18% 34.11%
Fletcher Magee 43.50% 90.80% 5.8 13.7 42.36% 43.72%
Carsen Edwards 36.80% 81.70% 4.2 11.9 39.30% 39.95%
Ty Jerome 39.20% 78.80% 2.1 5.4 36.40% 36.24%
Kevin Porter Jr 41.20% 52.20% 2.4 5.9 33.55% 33.02%
So what this data is saying is... there is a possibility (however slight it may be) that Garland only shoots threes in the NBA at a rate that is 2-6% better than Lonzo... while measuring 6'0" to 6'2" without his shoes (does anyone know?)... and appearing a non-factor in defense? Yet some are 1000% sure he should be a lock for the #4 pick and has "best player on a playoff team potential at a minimum"? My, oh my.
He seems talented and could very well be BPA at #4, only one way to find out... but since he has only played 5 games at the college level, skipped the combine, and I don't really have a good sense of his size/speed/agility/strength/mental intangibles/etc... I'm certainly not going to make similar such bold predictions. Instead I'm simply going to hope the FO brings him in for a work-out and that he'll impress them enough there with his skills/shooting. If he's as good as some here are thinking, that could be nice pick.
Nice work using the model btw!!
Yes, great stat sheet.
The only problem is that if you only look at the stat sheet, you'd think that Ball is a "real" shooter. However, when you watch the games, you would've seen that his shot was severely flawed and lacked variety -- no pull-ups, no going left, no in-between game.
Garland, on the other hand, has a textbook jumper and shoot in a multitude of ways. Stats won't show that, only context, eyes, and numbers will give the proper perspective.
I think Garland is the pick here, if we keep the pick. He’s the one guy I see who has a solid floor but also a really high ceiling, whereas with hunter, culver, reddish, that’s not quite the case.
I’d have no problem rolling the dice on reddish if we feel we will be bringing in a star FA and he can develop behind the scenes. Probably not a realistic view but more of an ideal situation if the front office wanted to go down that route.
I think Garland is the pick here, if we keep the pick. He’s the one guy I see who has a solid floor but also a really high ceiling, whereas with hunter, culver, reddish, that’s not quite the case.
I’d have no problem rolling the dice on reddish if we feel we will be bringing in a star FA and he can develop behind the scenes. Probably not a realistic view but more of an ideal situation if the front office wanted to go down that route.
The Lakers will decide when they have their workouts. I’ll tell you right now if Garland can’t step up when scrimmaging against Hunter, culver, white etc...they’re not drafting him. They’re not in the business of waiting for someone’s potential.
I think Garland is the pick here, if we keep the pick. He’s the one guy I see who has a solid floor but also a really high ceiling, whereas with hunter, culver, reddish, that’s not quite the case.
I’d have no problem rolling the dice on reddish if we feel we will be bringing in a star FA and he can develop behind the scenes. Probably not a realistic view but more of an ideal situation if the front office wanted to go down that route.
The Lakers will decide when they have their workouts. I’ll tell you right now if Garland can’t step up when scrimmaging against Hunter, culver, white etc...they’re not drafting him. They’re not in the business of waiting for someone’s potential.
Tyler Herro has a shorter wingspan than his height.
Okay so scratch the long part. Watching him play this year he looked like Kentucky's best perimeter defender. But yeah short wingspan.
Interestingly enough, Herro measured a quarter inch taller than Redick (6'4.25" vs. 6'4") with the exact same wingspan (6'3.25"). Redick must've worn flip flops though because he measured 6'4.75" in shoes while Herro measured 6'6" in shoes. In terms of body, Herro weighed in 2.5 pounds heavier than Redick, with the same amount of body fat (7%). Keep in mind that Herro is 19 while Redick was 22 at the time.
Redick was drafted 11th overall in 2007, but you could argue he's top 5 or just outside it in a redraft. Aldridge, Millsap, Lowry, Rondo, and Brandon Roy (pre-injury) are the only ones I'd consider taking before him.
Reddick was the most hot-or-cold college player I’ve ever seen. I didn’t think he was a lottery talent. No way should he influence the player picked at No. 4.
You sign players like Reddick in free agency. You don’t draft players like Reddick in the lottery.
Tyler Herro has a shorter wingspan than his height.
Okay so scratch the long part. Watching him play this year he looked like Kentucky's best perimeter defender. But yeah short wingspan.
Interestingly enough, Herro measured a quarter inch taller than Redick (6'4.25" vs. 6'4") with the exact same wingspan (6'3.25"). Redick must've worn flip flops though because he measured 6'4.75" in shoes while Herro measured 6'6" in shoes. In terms of body, Herro weighed in 2.5 pounds heavier than Redick, with the same amount of body fat (7%). Keep in mind that Herro is 19 while Redick was 22 at the time.
Redick was drafted 11th overall in 2007, but you could argue he's top 5 or just outside it in a redraft. Aldridge, Millsap, Lowry, Rondo, and Brandon Roy (pre-injury) are the only ones I'd consider taking before him.
Reddick was the most hot-or-cold college player I’ve ever seen. I didn’t think he was a lottery talent. No way should he influence the player picked at No. 4.
You sign players like Reddick in free agency. You don’t draft players like Reddick in the lottery.
My thinking as well. You don't draft just a shooting specialist in the Lottery _________________ Previously LBJ23
For the past few years, Nylon Calculus has put forward a prediction formula for how college 3PT shooting translates to the NBA. With a few minor exceptions, they've been completely on the money within 1-3% on most every prospect. It turns out FT% is more correlated to NBA 3PT success than NCAA 3PT%.
I went and ran the numbers for some of the top draft prospects this year with the two models that Nylon Calculus listed for predicting NBA 3pt% using a combination of College 3P%, FT%, 3PA/40 and 3PM/40.
Nylon Calculus model #1 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .175 + .128 * Free Throw Percentage + .00449 * 3PTA per 40 + .163 * Three Point Percentage
Nylon Calculus model #2 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .22 + .01571 * 3pt Made per 40 + .1389 * Free Throw Pct
For the variance in the last column, I just averaged the two models and compared it against their NBA percentage. I also used each player's full college stats and not their last year only.
This is what I came up with and added the young Lakers for comparison:
Code:
3P% FT% 3PM/40 3PA/40 Model 1 Model 2 NBA 3P% VAR (Model1/2)
Zion Williamson 33.80% 64.00% 1.0 2.9 32.50% 32.46%
Ja Morant 34.30% 81.00% 1.9 5.2 35.79% 36.24%
RJ Barrett 30.80% 66.50% 2.2 7.1 34.22% 34.69%
Darius Garland 47.80% 75.00% 3.2 6.6 37.85% 37.44%
De'Andre Hunter 41.90% 77.30% 1.4 3.4 35.75% 34.94%
Coby White 35.30% 80.00% 3.3 9.3 37.67% 38.30%
Jarrett Culver 34.10% 70.70% 1.9 5.5 34.58% 34.81%
Cameron Reddish 33.30% 77.20% 3.3 10.0 37.30% 37.91%
Rui Hachimura 31.60% 74.60% 0.5 1.5 32.87% 33.15%
Nassir Little 26.90% 77.00% 0.9 3.2 33.18% 34.11%
Fletcher Magee 43.50% 90.80% 5.8 13.7 42.36% 43.72%
Carsen Edwards 36.80% 81.70% 4.2 11.9 39.30% 39.95%
Ty Jerome 39.20% 78.80% 2.1 5.4 36.40% 36.24%
Kevin Porter Jr 41.20% 52.20% 2.4 5.9 33.55% 33.02%
Coby White looks like the best shooter available at 4.
Ja and White are the only 80% FT shooters from the lottery players. When you couple in how well White performed as a freshman under Roy Williams it makes it even more impressive. He looks like a potential good fit next to Zo. I'm guessing it all comes down to the workouts though.
I'm at a loss what this FO will do. Draft for potential? Draft the kid most ready to help? Draft the kid who has the most trade value in a potential trade? Is it too soon to draft another kid named Coby/Kobe? (sorry couldn't help myself).
Who knows...
Garland = smaller d angelo russell without the passing and the swag. So no thanks. He can be good but will take time to develop.
For me, it's Culver or Hunter or bust.
Culver passes the eye test of a pro player who can play both ends.
Hunter is a work in progress but has the tools to be a solid NBA player. Specially on defense.
Comparing Garland to Russell is flat-out lazy. Hell, all you did was sat to yourself, "They both can shoot and don't play defense, so that's enough to merit a comparison."
No sir; it's not.
Garland has speed. Russell sell does not.
Garland can break down defenses. Russell cannot.
Garland's speed and ability to break down defenses makes him different than Russell.
A much better comparison is Damon Lillard without the jumping ability. Irving, Terrell Brandon, Mark Price, or even Terry Porter.
Also, Garland's shooting form is beautiful. His footwork in preparation for shooting with knees bent and ass out is textbook. You can tell he has pedigree. I don't know if he was raised and taught by his father, former Warriors PG Winston Garland (a solid pro ), but whoever taught him, taught him well. My guess is that it was his pops.
At worst, with Garland, you'll get a pure shooter who can contribute on the level of Dana Barros or Patty Mills (with Spurs).
At best, you'll get a guy who will get a high percentage shot against anyone. I love how he doesn't seem to force his offense.
Speed? I don't see it. He just seems really slow to me. And his shot, while it has good form, looks very slow. It looks like a set shot that could get blocked a lot by NBA players.
His shot is too mechanical right now.
And again, I don't see the speed. At his size, he really should be a speedster. But he isn't based on footages I've seen him on.
Last edited by 3peat_pete on Sun May 19, 2019 10:56 am; edited 1 time in total
For the past few years, Nylon Calculus has put forward a prediction formula for how college 3PT shooting translates to the NBA. With a few minor exceptions, they've been completely on the money within 1-3% on most every prospect. It turns out FT% is more correlated to NBA 3PT success than NCAA 3PT%.
I went and ran the numbers for some of the top draft prospects this year with the two models that Nylon Calculus listed for predicting NBA 3pt% using a combination of College 3P%, FT%, 3PA/40 and 3PM/40.
Nylon Calculus model #1 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .175 + .128 * Free Throw Percentage + .00449 * 3PTA per 40 + .163 * Three Point Percentage
Nylon Calculus model #2 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .22 + .01571 * 3pt Made per 40 + .1389 * Free Throw Pct
For the variance in the last column, I just averaged the two models and compared it against their NBA percentage. I also used each player's full college stats and not their last year only.
This is what I came up with and added the young Lakers for comparison:
Code:
3P% FT% 3PM/40 3PA/40 Model 1 Model 2 NBA 3P% VAR (Model1/2)
Zion Williamson 33.80% 64.00% 1.0 2.9 32.50% 32.46%
Ja Morant 34.30% 81.00% 1.9 5.2 35.79% 36.24%
RJ Barrett 30.80% 66.50% 2.2 7.1 34.22% 34.69%
Darius Garland 47.80% 75.00% 3.2 6.6 37.85% 37.44%
De'Andre Hunter 41.90% 77.30% 1.4 3.4 35.75% 34.94%
Coby White 35.30% 80.00% 3.3 9.3 37.67% 38.30%
Jarrett Culver 34.10% 70.70% 1.9 5.5 34.58% 34.81%
Cameron Reddish 33.30% 77.20% 3.3 10.0 37.30% 37.91%
Rui Hachimura 31.60% 74.60% 0.5 1.5 32.87% 33.15%
Nassir Little 26.90% 77.00% 0.9 3.2 33.18% 34.11%
Fletcher Magee 43.50% 90.80% 5.8 13.7 42.36% 43.72%
Carsen Edwards 36.80% 81.70% 4.2 11.9 39.30% 39.95%
Ty Jerome 39.20% 78.80% 2.1 5.4 36.40% 36.24%
Kevin Porter Jr 41.20% 52.20% 2.4 5.9 33.55% 33.02%
Coby White looks like the best shooter available at 4.
Ja and White are the only 80% FT shooters from the lottery players. When you couple in how well White performed as a freshman under Roy Williams it makes it even more impressive. He looks like a potential good fit next to Zo. I'm guessing it all comes down to the workouts though.
I'm at a loss what this FO will do. Draft for potential? Draft the kid most ready to help? Draft the kid who has the most trade value in a potential trade? Is it too soon to draft another kid named Coby/Kobe? (sorry couldn't help myself).
Who knows...
I want White or Hunter but the scouting department has done a really good job recently so if they take Garland, I’ll trust he thoroughly impressed in workouts. I’m losing interest in Culver and would assume they’re trading it if the pick is Reddish.
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