Garland = smaller d angelo russell without the passing and the swag. So no thanks. He can be good but will take time to develop.
For me, it's Culver or Hunter or bust.
Culver passes the eye test of a pro player who can play both ends.
Hunter is a work in progress but has the tools to be a solid NBA player. Specially on defense.
Comparing Garland to Russell is flat-out lazy. Hell, all you did was sat to yourself, "They both can shoot and don't play defense, so that's enough to merit a comparison."
No sir; it's not.
Garland has speed. Russell sell does not.
Garland can break down defenses. Russell cannot.
Garland's speed and ability to break down defenses makes him different than Russell.
A much better comparison is Damon Lillard without the jumping ability. Irving, Terrell Brandon, Mark Price, or even Terry Porter.
Also, Garland's shooting form is beautiful. His footwork in preparation for shooting with knees bent and ass out is textbook. You can tell he has pedigree. I don't know if he was raised and taught by his father, former Warriors PG Winston Garland (a solid pro ), but whoever taught him, taught him well. My guess is that it was his pops.
At worst, with Garland, you'll get a pure shooter who can contribute on the level of Dana Barros or Patty Mills (with Spurs).
At best, you'll get a guy who will get a high percentage shot against anyone. I love how he doesn't seem to force his offense.
Speed? I don't see it. He just seems really slow to me. And his shot, while it has good form, looks very slow. It looks like a set shot looks like it could get blocked a lot by NBA players.
His shot is too mechanical right now.
And again, I don't see the speed. At his size, he really should be a speedster. But he isn't based on footages I've seen him on.
I don’t see spreed but I see quickness and a rest use of changing speeds. That might be more important.
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Sun May 19, 2019 11:12 am Post subject:
LAL1947 wrote:
Staccatos wrote:
Jack's Room wrote:
For the past few years, Nylon Calculus has put forward a prediction formula for how college 3PT shooting translates to the NBA. With a few minor exceptions, they've been completely on the money within 1-3% on most every prospect. It turns out FT% is more correlated to NBA 3PT success than NCAA 3PT%.
I went and ran the numbers for some of the top draft prospects this year with the two models that Nylon Calculus listed for predicting NBA 3pt% using a combination of College 3P%, FT%, 3PA/40 and 3PM/40.
Nylon Calculus model #1 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .175 + .128 * Free Throw Percentage + .00449 * 3PTA per 40 + .163 * Three Point Percentage
Nylon Calculus model #2 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .22 + .01571 * 3pt Made per 40 + .1389 * Free Throw Pct
For the variance in the last column, I just averaged the two models and compared it against their NBA percentage. I also used each player's full college stats and not their last year only.
This is what I came up with and added the young Lakers for comparison:
Code:
3P% FT% 3PM/40 3PA/40 Model 1 Model 2 NBA 3P% VAR (Model1/2)
Zion Williamson 33.80% 64.00% 1.0 2.9 32.50% 32.46%
Ja Morant 34.30% 81.00% 1.9 5.2 35.79% 36.24%
RJ Barrett 30.80% 66.50% 2.2 7.1 34.22% 34.69%
Darius Garland 47.80% 75.00% 3.2 6.6 37.85% 37.44%
De'Andre Hunter 41.90% 77.30% 1.4 3.4 35.75% 34.94%
Coby White 35.30% 80.00% 3.3 9.3 37.67% 38.30%
Jarrett Culver 34.10% 70.70% 1.9 5.5 34.58% 34.81%
Cameron Reddish 33.30% 77.20% 3.3 10.0 37.30% 37.91%
Rui Hachimura 31.60% 74.60% 0.5 1.5 32.87% 33.15%
Nassir Little 26.90% 77.00% 0.9 3.2 33.18% 34.11%
Fletcher Magee 43.50% 90.80% 5.8 13.7 42.36% 43.72%
Carsen Edwards 36.80% 81.70% 4.2 11.9 39.30% 39.95%
Ty Jerome 39.20% 78.80% 2.1 5.4 36.40% 36.24%
Kevin Porter Jr 41.20% 52.20% 2.4 5.9 33.55% 33.02%
So what this data is saying is... there is a possibility (however slight it may be) that Garland only shoots threes in the NBA at a rate that is 2-6% better than Lonzo... while measuring 6'0" to 6'2" without his shoes (does anyone know?)... and appearing a non-factor in defense? Yet some are 1000% sure he should be a lock for the #4 pick and has "best player on a playoff team potential at a minimum"? My, oh my.
He seems talented and could very well be BPA at #4, only one way to find out... but since he has only played 5 games at the college level, skipped the combine, and I don't really have a good sense of his size/speed/agility/strength/mental intangibles/etc... I'm certainly not going to make similar such bold predictions. Instead I'm simply going to hope the FO brings him in for a work-out and that he'll impress them enough there with his skills/shooting. If he's as good as some here are thinking, that could be nice pick.
Nice work using the model btw!!
The stat sheet reflects only NCAA numbers on /sss
But it wouldn't reflect on how Garland shot in HS, basically 87%FT, 51% behind the arc. Also /sss through 11 games. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
For the past few years, Nylon Calculus has put forward a prediction formula for how college 3PT shooting translates to the NBA. With a few minor exceptions, they've been completely on the money within 1-3% on most every prospect. It turns out FT% is more correlated to NBA 3PT success than NCAA 3PT%.
I went and ran the numbers for some of the top draft prospects this year with the two models that Nylon Calculus listed for predicting NBA 3pt% using a combination of College 3P%, FT%, 3PA/40 and 3PM/40.
Nylon Calculus model #1 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .175 + .128 * Free Throw Percentage + .00449 * 3PTA per 40 + .163 * Three Point Percentage
Nylon Calculus model #2 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .22 + .01571 * 3pt Made per 40 + .1389 * Free Throw Pct
For the variance in the last column, I just averaged the two models and compared it against their NBA percentage. I also used each player's full college stats and not their last year only.
This is what I came up with and added the young Lakers for comparison:
Code:
3P% FT% 3PM/40 3PA/40 Model 1 Model 2 NBA 3P% VAR (Model1/2)
Zion Williamson 33.80% 64.00% 1.0 2.9 32.50% 32.46%
Ja Morant 34.30% 81.00% 1.9 5.2 35.79% 36.24%
RJ Barrett 30.80% 66.50% 2.2 7.1 34.22% 34.69%
Darius Garland 47.80% 75.00% 3.2 6.6 37.85% 37.44%
De'Andre Hunter 41.90% 77.30% 1.4 3.4 35.75% 34.94%
Coby White 35.30% 80.00% 3.3 9.3 37.67% 38.30%
Jarrett Culver 34.10% 70.70% 1.9 5.5 34.58% 34.81%
Cameron Reddish 33.30% 77.20% 3.3 10.0 37.30% 37.91%
Rui Hachimura 31.60% 74.60% 0.5 1.5 32.87% 33.15%
Nassir Little 26.90% 77.00% 0.9 3.2 33.18% 34.11%
Fletcher Magee 43.50% 90.80% 5.8 13.7 42.36% 43.72%
Carsen Edwards 36.80% 81.70% 4.2 11.9 39.30% 39.95%
Ty Jerome 39.20% 78.80% 2.1 5.4 36.40% 36.24%
Kevin Porter Jr 41.20% 52.20% 2.4 5.9 33.55% 33.02%
If we cant bring in Fletcher in here...How about Carson Edwards..check out his vids.
His size, stature, and pull-up at the top of the key reminds me of D-Fish. He'd probably make a great backup PG. His FT% is better than Fisher's (.817) career. He might be worth the purchase of a second round pick.
For the past few years, Nylon Calculus has put forward a prediction formula for how college 3PT shooting translates to the NBA. With a few minor exceptions, they've been completely on the money within 1-3% on most every prospect. It turns out FT% is more correlated to NBA 3PT success than NCAA 3PT%.
I went and ran the numbers for some of the top draft prospects this year with the two models that Nylon Calculus listed for predicting NBA 3pt% using a combination of College 3P%, FT%, 3PA/40 and 3PM/40.
Nylon Calculus model #1 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .175 + .128 * Free Throw Percentage + .00449 * 3PTA per 40 + .163 * Three Point Percentage
Nylon Calculus model #2 is:
NBA 3 Point % = .22 + .01571 * 3pt Made per 40 + .1389 * Free Throw Pct
For the variance in the last column, I just averaged the two models and compared it against their NBA percentage. I also used each player's full college stats and not their last year only.
This is what I came up with and added the young Lakers for comparison:
Code:
3P% FT% 3PM/40 3PA/40 Model 1 Model 2 NBA 3P% VAR (Model1/2)
Zion Williamson 33.80% 64.00% 1.0 2.9 32.50% 32.46%
Ja Morant 34.30% 81.00% 1.9 5.2 35.79% 36.24%
RJ Barrett 30.80% 66.50% 2.2 7.1 34.22% 34.69%
Darius Garland 47.80% 75.00% 3.2 6.6 37.85% 37.44%
De'Andre Hunter 41.90% 77.30% 1.4 3.4 35.75% 34.94%
Coby White 35.30% 80.00% 3.3 9.3 37.67% 38.30%
Jarrett Culver 34.10% 70.70% 1.9 5.5 34.58% 34.81%
Cameron Reddish 33.30% 77.20% 3.3 10.0 37.30% 37.91%
Rui Hachimura 31.60% 74.60% 0.5 1.5 32.87% 33.15%
Nassir Little 26.90% 77.00% 0.9 3.2 33.18% 34.11%
Fletcher Magee 43.50% 90.80% 5.8 13.7 42.36% 43.72%
Carsen Edwards 36.80% 81.70% 4.2 11.9 39.30% 39.95%
Ty Jerome 39.20% 78.80% 2.1 5.4 36.40% 36.24%
Kevin Porter Jr 41.20% 52.20% 2.4 5.9 33.55% 33.02%
So what this data is saying is... there is a possibility (however slight it may be) that Garland only shoots threes in the NBA at a rate that is 2-6% better than Lonzo... while measuring 6'0" to 6'2" without his shoes (does anyone know?)... and appearing a non-factor in defense? Yet some are 1000% sure he should be a lock for the #4 pick and has "best player on a playoff team potential at a minimum"? My, oh my.
He seems talented and could very well be BPA at #4, only one way to find out... but since he has only played 5 games at the college level, skipped the combine, and I don't really have a good sense of his size/speed/agility/strength/mental intangibles/etc... I'm certainly not going to make similar such bold predictions. Instead I'm simply going to hope the FO brings him in for a work-out and that he'll impress them enough there with his skills/shooting. If he's as good as some here are thinking, that could be nice pick.
Nice work using the model btw!!
The stat sheet reflects only NCAA numbers on /sss
But it wouldn't reflect on how Garland shot in HS, basically 87%FT, 51% behind the arc. Also /sss through 11 games.
Tyler Herro has a shorter wingspan than his height.
Okay so scratch the long part. Watching him play this year he looked like Kentucky's best perimeter defender. But yeah short wingspan.
Interestingly enough, Herro measured a quarter inch taller than Redick (6'4.25" vs. 6'4") with the exact same wingspan (6'3.25"). Redick must've worn flip flops though because he measured 6'4.75" in shoes while Herro measured 6'6" in shoes. In terms of body, Herro weighed in 2.5 pounds heavier than Redick, with the same amount of body fat (7%). Keep in mind that Herro is 19 while Redick was 22 at the time.
Redick was drafted 11th overall in 2007, but you could argue he's top 5 or just outside it in a redraft. Aldridge, Millsap, Lowry, Rondo, and Brandon Roy (pre-injury) are the only ones I'd consider taking before him.
Reddick was the most hot-or-cold college player I’ve ever seen. I didn’t think he was a lottery talent. No way should he influence the player picked at No. 4.
You sign players like Reddick in free agency. You don’t draft players like Reddick in the lottery.
No one is suggesting taking Herro at #4. I'm merely pointing out the amazing similarities between Herro and Redick, who was undervalued at #11 relative to his NBA production.
The Lakers are going to take Reddish. Nothing else even makes sense unless they are trading the pick. _________________ “There are no limits. There are plateaus, but you must not stay there, you must go beyond them. If it kills you, it kills you. A man must constantly exceed his level.” ―Bruce Lee
Tyler Herro has a shorter wingspan than his height.
Okay so scratch the long part. Watching him play this year he looked like Kentucky's best perimeter defender. But yeah short wingspan.
Interestingly enough, Herro measured a quarter inch taller than Redick (6'4.25" vs. 6'4") with the exact same wingspan (6'3.25"). Redick must've worn flip flops though because he measured 6'4.75" in shoes while Herro measured 6'6" in shoes. In terms of body, Herro weighed in 2.5 pounds heavier than Redick, with the same amount of body fat (7%). Keep in mind that Herro is 19 while Redick was 22 at the time.
Redick was drafted 11th overall in 2007, but you could argue he's top 5 or just outside it in a redraft. Aldridge, Millsap, Lowry, Rondo, and Brandon Roy (pre-injury) are the only ones I'd consider taking before him.
Those similarities are striking. I watched a lot of Kentucky games this year and I really didn't think of Reddick watching Herro. He drives to the basket more and gets above the rim. Herro looks longer but apparently isn't by much. I'm curious to see how it all translates as a pro. If we had our original projected pick at 10 or 11 I'd take a chance on him.
Tyler Herro has a shorter wingspan than his height.
Okay so scratch the long part. Watching him play this year he looked like Kentucky's best perimeter defender. But yeah short wingspan.
Interestingly enough, Herro measured a quarter inch taller than Redick (6'4.25" vs. 6'4") with the exact same wingspan (6'3.25"). Redick must've worn flip flops though because he measured 6'4.75" in shoes while Herro measured 6'6" in shoes. In terms of body, Herro weighed in 2.5 pounds heavier than Redick, with the same amount of body fat (7%). Keep in mind that Herro is 19 while Redick was 22 at the time.
Redick was drafted 11th overall in 2007, but you could argue he's top 5 or just outside it in a redraft. Aldridge, Millsap, Lowry, Rondo, and Brandon Roy (pre-injury) are the only ones I'd consider taking before him.
Reddick was the most hot-or-cold college player I’ve ever seen. I didn’t think he was a lottery talent. No way should he influence the player picked at No. 4.
You sign players like Reddick in free agency. You don’t draft players like Reddick in the lottery.
No one is suggesting taking Herro at #4. I'm merely pointing out the amazing similarities between Herro and Redick, who was undervalued at #11 relative to his NBA production.
Numbers aren't similar. Reddick was 40% on 3 pointers at 7 attempts as a freshman. Hero was 35% on 4 attempts _________________ Previously LBJ23
Tyler Herro has a shorter wingspan than his height.
Okay so scratch the long part. Watching him play this year he looked like Kentucky's best perimeter defender. But yeah short wingspan.
Interestingly enough, Herro measured a quarter inch taller than Redick (6'4.25" vs. 6'4") with the exact same wingspan (6'3.25"). Redick must've worn flip flops though because he measured 6'4.75" in shoes while Herro measured 6'6" in shoes. In terms of body, Herro weighed in 2.5 pounds heavier than Redick, with the same amount of body fat (7%). Keep in mind that Herro is 19 while Redick was 22 at the time.
Redick was drafted 11th overall in 2007, but you could argue he's top 5 or just outside it in a redraft. Aldridge, Millsap, Lowry, Rondo, and Brandon Roy (pre-injury) are the only ones I'd consider taking before him.
Reddick was the most hot-or-cold college player I’ve ever seen. I didn’t think he was a lottery talent. No way should he influence the player picked at No. 4.
You sign players like Reddick in free agency. You don’t draft players like Reddick in the lottery.
No one is suggesting taking Herro at #4. I'm merely pointing out the amazing similarities between Herro and Redick, who was undervalued at #11 relative to his NBA production.
Numbers aren't similar. Reddick was 40% on 3 pointers at 7 attempts as a freshman. Hero was 35% on 4 attempts
Herro slashed 46.2%/35.5%/93.5% with 58% TS.
Redick slashed 41.3%/39.9%/91.9% with 59.8% TS.
Outside of shooting, let's take a look at their other Per40 stats:
The Lakers are going to take Reddish. Nothing else even makes sense unless they are trading the pick.
I'm good with that though I can see Memphis taking RJ and NYK taking Garland. I could make a good argument for both of those moves.
If that happens and Ja Morant is available (I know, pipe dream), would you take Ja over Cam? _________________ Build around team players, not ISO players.
Replace Markkanen with Carter....if they like Carter too then no deal.
they want to add without losing anything just like Laker fans...
Quote:
Ball intrigues the Bulls as a pass-first, defensive-minded point guard with positional size who can best maximize the talents of Lauri Markkanen, Zach LaVine and Wendell Carter Jr.
trading Lonzo for someone who is currently not better than him makes no sense. We are trying to push our championship window up, not back.
If Bulls want him that bad they need to make an offer we cant refuse.
Otherwise the only trade I'd like to see is a trade down to #6-7 for a 2020 1st rounder _________________ (bleep) Kawhi
Replace Markkanen with Carter....if they like Carter too then no deal.
they want to add without losing anything just like Laker fans...
Quote:
Ball intrigues the Bulls as a pass-first, defensive-minded point guard with positional size who can best maximize the talents of Lauri Markkanen, Zach LaVine and Wendell Carter Jr.
Lonzo to Chicago bulls for Dunn, 7th and their 38th pick
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