ESPN Forecast predictions: Lakers with 51 wins
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diando
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:41 am    Post subject:

I think we're only winning 47 mostly due to load management. Playoff time is where it's at though.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:44 am    Post subject:

diando wrote:
I think we're only winning 47 mostly due to load management. Playoff time is where it's at though.


I agree with the playoff part.

I find it strange that the prognosticators see the Clips winning that many games, fully knowing that KL will load manage the hell out of the season and PG13 is starting the season injured. Plus, they have a lot of adjustments to make with two all stars joining the team.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:51 am    Post subject:

I predicted 51 cuz it'd be 5th looking at last years standings. it was a modest prediction ..i could see a yuge leap to 52 wins
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diando
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:10 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
diando wrote:
I think we're only winning 47 mostly due to load management. Playoff time is where it's at though.


I agree with the playoff part.

I find it strange that the prognosticators see the Clips winning that many games, fully knowing that KL will load manage the hell out of the season and PG13 is starting the season injured. Plus, they have a lot of adjustments to make with two all stars joining the team.

I think they feel the continuity would overcome the load management. The Lakers don't have that.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:23 am    Post subject:

I think we will be active in the trade market this year. We have such an imbalance with so many guard-only players and have two distinct weak spots (center and big wing) that need to be addressed.

If we can ameliorate this via trade, or say buyout markets (i.e. Iggy) that would help a lot. But on paper, 51 games seems more than fair at this time given our somewhat flawed roster.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:25 am    Post subject:

diando wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
diando wrote:
I think we're only winning 47 mostly due to load management. Playoff time is where it's at though.


I agree with the playoff part.

I find it strange that the prognosticators see the Clips winning that many games, fully knowing that KL will load manage the hell out of the season and PG13 is starting the season injured. Plus, they have a lot of adjustments to make with two all stars joining the team.

I think they feel the continuity would overcome the load management. The Lakers don't have that.


The problem is they have to incorporate two high usage players who were used to being big time mid 20ppg scorers. As we've seen with teams that pair stars together for the first time (and neither KL/PG were on the Clips last year) it takes an adjustment process. Heck, the HEATLES started out of the gate rocky.

But if PG is certainly out for the first few weeks recovering from shoulder surgeries, and KL needs to miss 15-18 games, that may affect them in the W/L column. I think Clips will be a formidable playoff opponent, but I don't see them being a 1 or 2 seed for the reasons above.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:00 am    Post subject:

Bard207 wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
ocho wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
manlisten wrote:
The thing with these statistical projections is that I suppose they don't expect much from guys like Bradley, Caruso, KCP and even Kuzma. So to still have us at around 50 wins is encouraging and if those guys can step up we should be able to overachieve.


These are not statistical projections. This is the vote of the panel of pundits.

The stat guy has us at 46.6 wins. That sounds bad, but his model has only three teams winning 50 -- Rockets, Nuggets, and Bucks. He originally had us at about 48 wins or so, but his model lowered our projected win total after the Cousins injury.


46-47 is about what I'm expecting.


So we are worse then last year?



2018-19

Golden State........57-25
Denver................54-28
Portland...............53-29
Houston...............53-29
Utah....................50-32
OKC....................49-33
San Antonio.........48-34
Clippers...............48-34
Sacramento.........39-43
Lakers.................37-45
Minnesota............36-46
Memphis..............33-49
New Orleans........33-49
Dallas.................33-49
Phoenix...............19-63


It looks to be in the area of 9 - 10 games better than last season.


I don’t think you guys understood what I meant. Lakers were on there way to winning more then 46-47 last year before LeBron went down.
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Bard207
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:33 am    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
Bard207 wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
ocho wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
manlisten wrote:
The thing with these statistical projections is that I suppose they don't expect much from guys like Bradley, Caruso, KCP and even Kuzma. So to still have us at around 50 wins is encouraging and if those guys can step up we should be able to overachieve.


These are not statistical projections. This is the vote of the panel of pundits.

The stat guy has us at 46.6 wins. That sounds bad, but his model has only three teams winning 50 -- Rockets, Nuggets, and Bucks. He originally had us at about 48 wins or so, but his model lowered our projected win total after the Cousins injury.


46-47 is about what I'm expecting.


So we are worse then last year?



2018-19

Golden State........57-25
Denver................54-28
Portland...............53-29
Houston...............53-29
Utah....................50-32
OKC....................49-33
San Antonio.........48-34
Clippers...............48-34
Sacramento.........39-43
Lakers.................37-45
Minnesota............36-46
Memphis..............33-49
New Orleans........33-49
Dallas.................33-49
Phoenix...............19-63


It looks to be in the area of 9 - 10 games better than last season.


I don’t think you guys understood what I meant. Lakers were on there way to winning more then 46-47 last year before LeBron went down.



We can only go by what a person posts and you made no mention of LeBron and his injury in your earlier post:

Quote:

So we are worse then last year?
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LandsbergerRules
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:57 am    Post subject:

Prediction seems reasonable. I went with 53 wins in an earlier thread.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:27 am    Post subject:

Even if we manage our loads
We should still get to 50 wins
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Goldenwest
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:55 am    Post subject:

This is easy, 50-55 wins

Better coach, two top 5 superstars, better supporting cast, assuming no major injury issues of course.
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Kobesystem
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:57 am    Post subject:

Kind of surprising the Bucks are rated that high.....
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2019
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:17 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
I think we will be active in the trade market this year. We have such an imbalance with so many guard-only players and have two distinct weak spots (center and big wing) that need to be addressed.

If we can ameliorate this via trade, or say buyout markets (i.e. Iggy) that would help a lot. But on paper, 51 games seems more than fair at this time given our somewhat flawed roster.


I would agree but LeBron, AD are untouchable. Green is way ton valuable and the perfect fit. Kuzma is a good trade asset but I think Jeanie/FO is very attached to him as our young piece (Kuzma has probably convinced her he's in Kobe's mold). KCP and McGee essentially have NTC.

Who does that leave? Boogie's expiring (bad look for a team that will try and bring him back next year at the min). The rest of the deals aren't substantial enough for to make a deal.

Me thinks the buyout market will be interesting...
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:39 am    Post subject:

Yea we really don't have any tradeable assets. We just have to pray that KCP is amenable to being traded maybe to a team in a no tax state or somewhere he can get heavy minutes and play for his next contract.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 12:19 pm    Post subject:

ReaListik wrote:
55-57 wins is more accurate.


And every year I have to say “thats not realistik”.
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slavavov
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 12:55 pm    Post subject:

If we stay relatively healthy I think 55 wins is a good over/under. I have a feeling we'll be a better than expected defensive team.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:48 pm    Post subject:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2019_start.html

As shown in the above link, in a limited sample of 18 games last season, a line up of Ball, Ingram, LeBron, Kuzma and McGee won 13 of 18 games (insane 0.722 winning percentage). They beat some pretty good teams in the 18 games and won 4 of 7 road games. LeBron was mainly the ball handler in this line up with Ball and Ingram’s defense being critical. Not saying this line up would have maintained a 72% win % if they played more games but if that line up had played 60 games instead of 18, they probably win 40 games easily and with 22 remaining games, we probably win another 10 games for a total of at least 50 games if we had been healthy.

Now fast forward to 2019/2020 and replace Ball and Ingram with Danny Green and AD, I believe arguably that translates into a better team both offensively and defensively. That is why I strongly believe, health permitting, the team easily wins at least 51 games (as predicted by ESPN) and most probably in the low to mid 50s, considering how tough the West is and potential load management.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:21 pm    Post subject:

Samoji wrote:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2019_start.html

As shown in the above link, in a limited sample of 18 games last season, a line up of Ball, Ingram, LeBron, Kuzma and McGee won 13 of 18 games (insane 0.722 winning percentage). They beat some pretty good teams in the 18 games and won 4 of 7 road games. LeBron was mainly the ball handler in this line up with Ball and Ingram’s defense being critical. Not saying this line up would have maintained a 72% win % if they played more games but if that line up had played 60 games instead of 18, they probably win 40 games easily and with 22 remaining games, we probably win another 10 games for a total of at least 50 games if we had been healthy.

Now fast forward to 2019/2020 and replace Ball and Ingram with Danny Green and AD, I believe arguably that translates into a better team both offensively and defensively. That is why I strongly believe, health permitting, the team easily wins at least 51 games (as predicted by ESPN) and most probably in the low to mid 50s, considering how tough the West is and potential load management.

i bet that was all mcgee. go back look at those games with those lineups, and mcgee was doing fantastic.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:39 pm    Post subject:

Gotta stay healthy if we want 50 wins. Far from a given. But fingers crossed.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:44 pm    Post subject:

I'll take it
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:28 am    Post subject:

70-12
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:36 am    Post subject:

We gotta get over that in the past, 51 wins was a fringe playoff record and you wanted to be in the late 50s+ to have a "good record".

The west was more spread out historically. We had lots of bad teams for the playoff bound west teams to feast on. And the east was way more competitive.

The west is so tough now, the spread between the 4th and 8th seed was 2 fricken wins last year.

The NBA really needs to make the playoffs just the top 16 teams, conference be damned.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:11 am    Post subject:

Samoji wrote:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2019_start.html

As shown in the above link, in a limited sample of 18 games last season, a line up of Ball, Ingram, LeBron, Kuzma and McGee won 13 of 18 games (insane 0.722 winning percentage). They beat some pretty good teams in the 18 games and won 4 of 7 road games. LeBron was mainly the ball handler in this line up with Ball and Ingram’s defense being critical. Not saying this line up would have maintained a 72% win % if they played more games but if that line up had played 60 games instead of 18, they probably win 40 games easily and with 22 remaining games, we probably win another 10 games for a total of at least 50 games if we had been healthy.

Now fast forward to 2019/2020 and replace Ball and Ingram with Danny Green and AD, I believe arguably that translates into a better team both offensively and defensively. That is why I strongly believe, health permitting, the team easily wins at least 51 games (as predicted by ESPN) and most probably in the low to mid 50s, considering how tough the West is and potential load management.


That sounds good but the West actually got even better. All of the fringe playoff teams improved. A lot of our roster is either in their 30's or injury prone. We already lost a key piece in Cousins before the season even began.

I'm mentally preparing myself for another year of injuries or load management for rotational players. And once you dip into that fringe playoff status it can quickly become a bloodbath. The 8-seed had 48 wins last season.

I'll be pretty satisfied with 51 wins. As long as we're healthy for the playoffs I'll take our chances against any team in the league.
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LaLaLakeShow
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:11 am    Post subject:

oaktown_dimond wrote:
We gotta get over that in the past, 51 wins was a fringe playoff record and you wanted to be in the late 50s+ to have a "good record".

The west was more spread out historically. We had lots of bad teams for the playoff bound west teams to feast on. And the east was way more competitive.

The west is so tough now, the spread between the 4th and 8th seed was 2 fricken wins last year.

The NBA really needs to make the playoffs just the top 16 teams, conference be damned.


So do away with conferences altogether then?
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:13 am    Post subject:

Here is how I see it...

If Howard doesn’t add anything to the team then we win 50-55 games just based on the dynamic duo of AD + LeBron but if Howard brings back some of his level of play from his ORL days then we can win 60+
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