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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:36 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:

Desmond Bane
Devon Dotson
Grant Riller
Killian Tillie


Riller
Tillman
Bane
Dotson
Tillie

I'd put Tillie right up there with Riller if he was actually healthy.

I can't justify putting Tillman over Bane. Bane has a clear pathway to being a useful 5th starter, but Tillman's lack of jumper and smaller size for a C make him more of a situational backup, imo.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:59 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:

Desmond Bane
Devon Dotson
Grant Riller
Killian Tillie


Riller
Tillman
Bane
Dotson
Tillie

I'd put Tillie right up there with Riller if he was actually healthy.

I can't justify putting Tillman over Bane. Bane has a clear pathway to being a useful 5th starter, but Tillman's lack of jumper and smaller size for a C make him more of a situational backup, imo.


I have a tough time with the 6'4" wingspan shooting over modern NBA contests with the drop crane after the release.

Maybe he'll outquick every contest. But I can trust Tillman's physique at the NBA level.

Just because Tillman lacks a jumper, doesn't mean he can't develop one. But, I don't see him necessarily as a situational backup. He just has the best old man game in a modern NBA body.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 04, 2020 10:16 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Tillman in.


Tillman or Zeke Nnaji?

Nnaji is the one I really would like to see fall to the Lakers but I have my doubts he will.

I don't understand the appeal of Nnaji. Big men need to defend at the rim otherwise they're useless.

I'm not as high on Tillman as some others, but he's obviously a pro who should stick as a useful third big. If you think his jumper comes around, then he's a lot more interesting and would have a narrow pathway towards starting.

Nnaji will score more and look cool doing it, but I'd trust Tillman to have a positive impact as a defender and passer. The good news is that NBA scouts seem irrationally high on bigs like Nnaji and Oturu, so Tillman should be available to the Lakers at 29 and into the 2nd round if they try to buy a pick.


High end rim protectors/defenders e.g Clint Capela, JaVale McGee, Dwight Howard seem to have less value as teams rely more on spacing and 3pt scoring.

I see Nnaji as a center version of John Collins. Skilled with good size, length, willing defender with potential to be a +scorer. That's just the profile I believe will have more impact on the game.

Lastly I just don't feel Tillman's offense will develop where he could fit as a starter on a championship contending team.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:56 am    Post subject:

Really hate Oturu.

Tillman's offense isn't about how he produces points, but rather how he makes good decisions in a timely manner, and actually gets teammates open with actual screens and interior passing.

I'm not really thinking in terms of who is going to be a starter or anything. I just want a guy that'll actually make the league.


Finding a two-way big that is equally good on offense and defense just by knowing where to be, goes far.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:41 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Tillman in.


Tillman or Zeke Nnaji?

Nnaji is the one I really would like to see fall to the Lakers but I have my doubts he will.

I don't understand the appeal of Nnaji. Big men need to defend at the rim otherwise they're useless.

I'm not as high on Tillman as some others, but he's obviously a pro who should stick as a useful third big. If you think his jumper comes around, then he's a lot more interesting and would have a narrow pathway towards starting.

Nnaji will score more and look cool doing it, but I'd trust Tillman to have a positive impact as a defender and passer. The good news is that NBA scouts seem irrationally high on bigs like Nnaji and Oturu, so Tillman should be available to the Lakers at 29 and into the 2nd round if they try to buy a pick.


High end rim protectors/defenders e.g Clint Capela, JaVale McGee, Dwight Howard seem to have less value as teams rely more on spacing and 3pt scoring.

I see Nnaji as a center version of John Collins. Skilled with good size, length, willing defender with potential to be a +scorer. That's just the profile I believe will have more impact on the game.

Lastly I just don't feel Tillman's offense will develop where he could fit as a starter on a championship contending team.

But I can hide Collins defensively at PF next to an elite rim protector like Capela whereas Nnaji was a worse college rim protector than Jahlil Okafor and Julius Randle who doesn't look like he can ever be trusted to be the backline of a defense.

Rim protecting/rim running bigs are fairly fungible, true, which lowers their cost on the market, but that doesn't mean that what they do is less valuable than a face-up big. And it's often the face up bigs who provide less rim protection who end up getting overpaid relative to their impact (going by PIPM). And I think teaching a guy like Tillman to shoot has a higher probability than teaching Nnaji how to protect the rim.

I don't hate Nnaji, but Jordan Hill was never my kind of player even if he was productive for several seasons.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 05, 2020 4:50 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Tillman in.


Tillman or Zeke Nnaji?

Nnaji is the one I really would like to see fall to the Lakers but I have my doubts he will.

I don't understand the appeal of Nnaji. Big men need to defend at the rim otherwise they're useless.

I'm not as high on Tillman as some others, but he's obviously a pro who should stick as a useful third big. If you think his jumper comes around, then he's a lot more interesting and would have a narrow pathway towards starting.

Nnaji will score more and look cool doing it, but I'd trust Tillman to have a positive impact as a defender and passer. The good news is that NBA scouts seem irrationally high on bigs like Nnaji and Oturu, so Tillman should be available to the Lakers at 29 and into the 2nd round if they try to buy a pick.


High end rim protectors/defenders e.g Clint Capela, JaVale McGee, Dwight Howard seem to have less value as teams rely more on spacing and 3pt scoring.

I see Nnaji as a center version of John Collins. Skilled with good size, length, willing defender with potential to be a +scorer. That's just the profile I believe will have more impact on the game.

Lastly I just don't feel Tillman's offense will develop where he could fit as a starter on a championship contending team.

But I can hide Collins defensively at PF next to an elite rim protector like Capela whereas Nnaji was a worse college rim protector than Jahlil Okafor and Julius Randle who doesn't look like he can ever be trusted to be the backline of a defense.

Rim protecting/rim running bigs are fairly fungible, true, which lowers their cost on the market, but that doesn't mean that what they do is less valuable than a face-up big. And it's often the face up bigs who provide less rim protection who end up getting overpaid relative to their impact (going by PIPM). And I think teaching a guy like Tillman to shoot has a higher probability than teaching Nnaji how to protect the rim.

I don't hate Nnaji, but Jordan Hill was never my kind of player even if he was productive for several seasons.


I understand your POV. This is a grey area and just a matter of personal preference. I do get enamored with offensively skilled bigs and Nnaji fits that bill.

Nnaji puts in the defensive effort and is pretty agile giving hope he will be able to switch on the perimeter. He just does not have the instincts/timing of natural rim protectors although he will contest.

I do watch a number of Pac12 games as I have the Pac12 sports channels so my opinion may get skewed one way or the other. Watched a couple of Tyrell Terry's game 2-3 weeks ago and he has grown on me.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2020 11:56 am    Post subject:

Leandro Bolmaro - Ball-handler, near wing size. Reliant on defensive instincts than technique. Flashes movement shooting and basic PnR play with timing.

Killian Tillie - Modern 4 with health issues. Money from 5 corners at 3pt range, floater touch, short roll passing, verticality at the rim, switchability/feet at top of the key vs POA. It's always been a health issue.

Nico Mannion - Think Arizona doesn't clarify his talents. Best talent is pull up jumper and verticality with steam. Capable of PnR play. Sub average wingspan. Scoring guard.

Xavier Tillman - Like watching Bo Outlaw in Tarik Black's size/athleticism combination. Immense IQ. Lacks verticality and all perimeter touch. Shot needs work from bottom to top.

Mason Jones - Once 300lbs and slimmed down to 225 to play SG. Basic guard Iso guard skill set in Iso shot creation with step back, 1 change of direction before straight line dirve. EXCELLENT FTr at this part of the draft; physical player, strong. Gives appearance of an average guard athlete with strength (Wes Matthews caliber?) but with more dexterity with the handle.

Tre Jones - He'll hate the term backup PG, but at least he's a 2-way player that makes good decisions. Needs strength. Needs purer jumper.

Cassius Winston - Not the best finisher, but a HELL of a pull up jumper and NBA body. His upside is probably most aligned with Devonte Graham in terms of game. That'd be a steal.

Jaden McDaniels - Will need time to build strength, but has the motor to play physical.. That's the one similarity both him and BI have. Skipped steps in offensive skill development and can make incredibly difficult jump shots under contests. That's the upside. Decision making is a big issue outside of strength. Plays a bit high strung/wild.

Tyler Bey - Andre Roberson's archetype. Switchable 1-4 even if he's light. Limited range to 10' but not as atrocious of a shot form as Roberson. Signs of light with a 75%FT. Confused role as a wing playing as a big. Would be an amazing future 4 with dev time.

Malachi Flynn - Stud PnR PG with change of pace, direction, some floater touch,and all of the PnR passes.

Paul Reed - Defensive big 3-5 but offense of a 5. Bey has more versatility here. Both guys are standout defenders. REALLY STIFF jumpshot/mechanical.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:19 am    Post subject:

Isaiah Joe is back.

Assuming the list above is in order, I'd slot him around where Mannion is.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 6:52 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Leandro Bolmaro - Ball-handler, near wing size. Reliant on defensive instincts than technique. Flashes movement shooting and basic PnR play with timing.

Killian Tillie - Modern 4 with health issues. Money from 5 corners at 3pt range, floater touch, short roll passing, verticality at the rim, switchability/feet at top of the key vs POA. It's always been a health issue.

Nico Mannion - Think Arizona doesn't clarify his talents. Best talent is pull up jumper and verticality with steam. Capable of PnR play. Sub average wingspan. Scoring guard.

Xavier Tillman - Like watching Bo Outlaw in Tarik Black's size/athleticism combination. Immense IQ. Lacks verticality and all perimeter touch. Shot needs work from bottom to top.

Mason Jones - Once 300lbs and slimmed down to 225 to play SG. Basic guard Iso guard skill set in Iso shot creation with step back, 1 change of direction before straight line dirve. EXCELLENT FTr at this part of the draft; physical player, strong. Gives appearance of an average guard athlete with strength (Wes Matthews caliber?) but with more dexterity with the handle.

Tre Jones - He'll hate the term backup PG, but at least he's a 2-way player that makes good decisions. Needs strength. Needs purer jumper.

Cassius Winston - Not the best finisher, but a HELL of a pull up jumper and NBA body. His upside is probably most aligned with Devonte Graham in terms of game. That'd be a steal.

Jaden McDaniels - Will need time to build strength, but has the motor to play physical.. That's the one similarity both him and BI have. Skipped steps in offensive skill development and can make incredibly difficult jump shots under contests. That's the upside. Decision making is a big issue outside of strength. Plays a bit high strung/wild.

Tyler Bey - Andre Roberson's archetype. Switchable 1-4 even if he's light. Limited range to 10' but not as atrocious of a shot form as Roberson. Signs of light with a 75%FT. Confused role as a wing playing as a big. Would be an amazing future 4 with dev time.

Malachi Flynn - Stud PnR PG with change of pace, direction, some floater touch,and all of the PnR passes.

Paul Reed - Defensive big 3-5 but offense of a 5. Bey has more versatility here. Both guys are standout defenders. REALLY STIFF jumpshot/mechanical.
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Great observations and all guys I like outside of McDaniels and Mannion and at least they're young.

Reed's fascinating me because he's such a nutcase on offense and was too often left to his own devices creating for himself off the dribble (which meant a lot of tovs). I'd be curious if those flashes are something to build on as he matures and (hopefully) becomes less manic with age or if they're signs of a guy asked to do more than he'll ever be capable of.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:13 pm    Post subject:

I think I've settled on a top five:

1) Ball
2) Hayes
3) Edwards - there's too much natural talent not to have him top three; I hope he somehow ends up with Golden State
4) Poku
5) Okongwu

Then I have the next seven, but still figuring out the ranking:

Avdija
Lewis
Okoro
Terry
Vassell
P. Williams
Wiseman

Then the late lottery through #20:

Anthony
Bane
Bolmaro
Haliburton
Hampton
Maxey
Riller
Toppin

Guys in the #20-30 range:

Achiuwa
T. Bey
Dotson
Flynn
J. Green
Joe
M. Jones
Reed
Tillie
Tillman

Tie: Madar/Maledon/Mannion/Nesmith/T. Jones/Winston
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:28 am    Post subject:

^Mostly agreed with the list. I think for Toppin, he'd be awesome on a bad team. Said he was working on his lateral months ago while in quarantine. But I generally think he should be mid lottery at least.

Did a PG watch last night with Maledon, Flynn, Mannion, Tre, Riller. Even after the watch, I'm still unclear how to rank them since I think they're basically the same tier or just a half tier in talent apart.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:31 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Leandro Bolmaro - Ball-handler, near wing size. Reliant on defensive instincts than technique. Flashes movement shooting and basic PnR play with timing.
Like his defensive effort and innate passing ability.

Killian Tillie - Modern 4 with health issues. Money from 5 corners at 3pt range, floater touch, short roll passing, verticality at the rim, switchability/feet at top of the key vs POA. It's always been a health issue.
Multiple foot/leg injuries too risky to draft in 1st.

Nico Mannion - Think Arizona doesn't clarify his talents. Best talent is pull up jumper and verticality with steam. Capable of PnR play. Sub average wingspan. Scoring guard.
Would like to see him develop the ability to get in the lane and create easy offensive opportunities for others or himself. Be a complete PG

Xavier Tillman - Like watching Bo Outlaw in Tarik Black's size/athleticism combination. Immense IQ. Lacks verticality and all perimeter touch. Shot needs work from bottom to top.
Not a big fan. Would like him better if he was taller or had more quickness. Don't believe his shot will develop. Looks slow to me.

Mason Jones - Once 300lbs and slimmed down to 225 to play SG. Basic guard Iso guard skill set in Iso shot creation with step back, 1 change of direction before straight line dirve. EXCELLENT FTr at this part of the draft; physical player, strong. Gives appearance of an average guard athlete with strength (Wes Matthews caliber?) but with more dexterity with the handle.
Did not know about 300lbs WOW. Has been one of my preferred picks for the Lakers due to his iso skills.

Tre Jones - He'll hate the term backup PG, but at least he's a 2-way player that makes good decisions. Needs strength. Needs purer jumper.
I like him but with current skill set agree with backup PG. Needs to tweak form to improve jumper.

Cassius Winston - Not the best finisher, but a HELL of a pull up jumper and NBA body. His upside is probably most aligned with Devonte Graham in terms of game. That'd be a steal.
It's like he is close to his ceiling already. Can he become similar to Fred VanVleet?

Jaden McDaniels - Will need time to build strength, but has the motor to play physical.. That's the one similarity both him and BI have. Skipped steps in offensive skill development and can make incredibly difficult jump shots under contests. That's the upside. Decision making is a big issue outside of strength. Plays a bit high strung/wild.
I have faith he will develop as he plays hard on both ends. Better frame to add weight vs. BI.

Tyler Bey - Andre Roberson's archetype. Switchable 1-4 even if he's light. Limited range to 10' but not as atrocious of a shot form as Roberson. Signs of light with a 75%FT. Confused role as a wing playing as a big. Would be an amazing future 4 with dev time.
Always looked at him as a wing. Will need to watch again to see if he can be a PF. Concern with no touch in this shot.

Malachi Flynn - Stud PnR PG with change of pace, direction, some floater touch,and all of the PnR passes.
Appears mentally tough. Like TJ McConnell in this respect.

Paul Reed - Defensive big 3-5 but offense of a 5. Bey has more versatility here. Both guys are standout defenders. REALLY STIFF jumpshot/mechanical.
Have not watched him at all
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Nice. Your analysis is pretty spot on.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 3:09 pm    Post subject:

fwiw, I'd still consider Mason Jones late 1st.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:41 pm    Post subject:

So Tyler Hagedorn popped up on my YT feed awhile back and am impressed with his offensive game. Nice handles, body control, can get to the rim and shoot from deep.

If the Lakers buy a mid 2nd he could be a sleeper pick or at least signed to a UDFA. He is the type of player the Heat seem to pick up and turn into solid rotation players if not starters.
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:04 am    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
So Tyler Hagedorn popped up on my YT feed awhile back and am impressed with his offensive game. Nice handles, body control, can get to the rim and shoot from deep.

If the Lakers buy a mid 2nd he could be a sleeper pick or at least signed to a UDFA. He is the type of player the Heat seem to pick up and turn into solid rotation players if not starters.


Worth a look just for advanced numbers alone.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 12:06 pm    Post subject:

1 DT YouTube livestream mock had Maledon at 28.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:09 pm    Post subject:

Hey Mike, any thoughts on Jay Scrubb? I've seen very little tape, but the profile sounds good. As a rule I don't like JUCO players, but he does sound intriguing.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:13 pm    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:
Hey Mike, any thoughts on Jay Scrubb? I've seen very little tape, but the profile sounds good. As a rule I don't like JUCO players, but he does sound intriguing.


The Iso skills are good, because the jumper looks surprisingly refined. Can't see the other half of the court. Moderate handle. Might go UDFA and hang onto him for awhile with player dev.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:03 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
^Mostly agreed with the list. I think for Toppin, he'd be awesome on a bad team. Said he was working on his lateral months ago while in quarantine. But I generally think he should be mid lottery at least.

Did a PG watch last night with Maledon, Flynn, Mannion, Tre, Riller. Even after the watch, I'm still unclear how to rank them since I think they're basically the same tier or just a half tier in talent apart.

I'm watching Donovan Mitchell target Porter, Jr. every time he's on the floor in the DEN/UTA series and there's no way Toppin can play more than a handful of minutes in a playoff series. Maybe as a backup center in drop coverage, but then you'd be giving up the advantage of size without adding switchability.

I've gotten locked into the mindset of drafting guys who I think can contribute to a championship team whether as a first option or twelfth man, and Toppin being a mostly dependent scorer who needs to be hidden on defense doesn't seem like a guy I'd like to expend too much draft capital on. Especially for a 23-year-old whose issues are physical more than of technique. Someone on draft twitter said it perfectly: "Toppin's center of gravity starts somewhere in his neck."
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:27 pm    Post subject:

Seriously thinking of moving Reed up. It blows me away that he's only a few months older than Achiuwa and it seems like Precious is going to go late lottery while Reed is projected as second round pick.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:37 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
1 DT YouTube livestream mock had Maledon at 28.

I have a hard time getting a good feel for him. I may have under valued his talent in my previous comments. I felt similarly with SGA and that was a mistake.

Do the Lakers pick a player who could potentially contribute next season or one who needs 2-3 years of development?
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:57 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Seriously thinking of moving Reed up. It blows me away that he's only a few months older than Achiuwa and it seems like Precious is going to go late lottery while Reed is projected as second round pick.


Achiuwa is one of my favorites in this draft due to the effort he gives on the court. His bbiq seems really high and I believe he has low bust potential and would be able to adjust his play with any team.

Finally viewed Reed and he is great athletically and explosive. How do you feel about his bbiq and overall game?
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:31 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Seriously thinking of moving Reed up. It blows me away that he's only a few months older than Achiuwa and it seems like Precious is going to go late lottery while Reed is projected as second round pick.


Achiuwa is one of my favorites in this draft due to the effort he gives on the court. His bbiq seems really high and I believe he has low bust potential and would be able to adjust his play with any team.

Finally viewed Reed and he is great athletically and explosive. How do you feel about his bbiq and overall game?

I think Achiuwa and Reed have the same main issue on offense: both of them try to do too much and get sped up leading to poor decisionmaking. But I like Reed's handle a little more and I buy into his shot a little more than Achiuwa's.

I question both of their bbiqs, but Reed's moreso than Achiuwa's. Reed seems to function on pure instinct most of the time, which makes me interested to see what a good developmental staff could do to harness his chaotic energy.

Without a jumper both guys are career backups and Achiuwa has the bulk to play minutes as a small ball C, so I'd say his floor is higher sans jumpshot. If both do develop jumpers then I'm impressed with Reed's athleticism and think he could develop into a really useful 3-4 defender - Jerami Grant optimistically - which is more valuable in the NBA than an undersized C defender.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:05 pm    Post subject:

Beyond Achiuwa and Reed, some other second round value picks in lieu of projected first rounders:

Malachi Flynn instead of Cole Anthony
Reggie Perry instead of Obi Toppin
Jordan Nwora instead of Saddiq Bey
Isaiah Joe instead of Aaron Nesmith (obviously Bane over Nesmith, as well)

Not saying that all the second round picks will be better than their first round counterparts, but I think teams'll get comparable production/impact while having their 1st(s) to address other needs.
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PlantedTanks
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:13 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Beyond Achiuwa and Reed, some other second round value picks in lieu of projected first rounders:

Malachi Flynn instead of Cole Anthony
Reggie Perry instead of Obi Toppin
Jordan Nwora instead of Saddiq Bey
Isaiah Joe instead of Aaron Nesmith (obviously Bane over Nesmith, as well)

Not saying that all the second round picks will be better than their first round counterparts, but I think teams'll get comparable production/impact while having their 1st(s) to address other needs.


Agree with all. I will add

Robert Woodard instead of Isaac Okoro
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