WCF Seeding and Load Management ( 17-2 start )
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parsons777
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 1:59 pm    Post subject: WCF Seeding and Load Management ( 17-2 start )

Right now ( 11/30 ) we are 1st at 17-2 with games coming up against teams with winning records.

Since we made it to 17-2 we still need to go 38-25 ( 60% ) to get to the 55 victories it took GSW for the top seed in the West last year. It took 48 wins to get into the playoffs and so we would need to go approximately 31-32 to just get in.

We have 9 back-to-backs the rest of the way, although 1 is the last two games of the season and seeding may be locked up by then. We have 2 Denver-Utah back-to-backs, which will be brutal.

Of course, we will likely aim for the top seed at least until the All-Star Break, but I hope we start managing both Lebron's and AD's loads. I would prefer a lower seed and a greater chance at being healthy in April over a higher seed.


Last edited by parsons777 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:00 pm; edited 3 times in total
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audioaxes
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 2:30 pm    Post subject:

the biggest key is securing a top 3 seed or we will be facing a tough 1st round matchup... assuming the top 5 seeds will be:
Lakers
Clippers
Jazz
Rockets
Nuggets

... 2 of those teams will face each other in the first round. You dont want to be one of those teams if you can help it

After that maintaining the #1 seed would be good because I think that will most likely mean we wont face the Clippers until WCF as I dont see them seeding less than top 3 in that scenario.
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LakerMindLA
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 2:38 pm    Post subject:

audioaxes wrote:
the biggest key is securing a top 3 seed or we will be facing a tough 1st round matchup... assuming the top 5 seeds will be:
Lakers
Clippers
Jazz
Rockets
Nuggets

... 2 of those teams will face each other in the first round. You dont want to be one of those teams if you can help it

After that maintaining the #1 seed would be good because I think that will most likely mean we wont face the Clippers until WCF as I dont see them seeding less than top 3 in that scenario.


I’d say top 2 seed. Mavs will be a tough out.
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PHILosophize
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 2:51 pm    Post subject:

I think top 3 sounds right but it of course depends on how the top 2 seeds are

e.g. if it goes

HOU
LAC
LAL

I'm 100% fine with that. But switch out HOU for Utah or Denver and I'd be more worried (not that I don't think we could beat either of those teams without HCA, tbh).
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manlisten
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:06 pm    Post subject:

Screw it, let's beat the Warriors' record.
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CandyCanes
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:09 pm    Post subject:

I would prefer to avoid being #2 or #3 so we don’t have to face the Clippers or the Rockets in the second round and then have to face the other in the WCF.
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Four Decade Bandwagon
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:13 pm    Post subject:

IMO they need to “plan” on winning every game until the very end of the season. Go by how the players feel and are performing.

Too many variables over a long season to “plan” load management days off. Easy to project wins until unexpected injuries and losses happen. Right about the time that James returns from some mental health days where the Lakers go .500 is when Murphy’s Law bites the team in the butt with an injury or a poor shooting streak.

Last season the Warriors had the best record with 57 wins. The 8th seed had 48 wins. That 9 game span may even be tighter this year. And that 6th, 7th or 8th seed even more dangerous.

Win them when they get the chance. There is an old adage about counting chickens before they hatch that applies here.
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PHILosophize
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:14 pm    Post subject:

CandyCanes wrote:
I would prefer to avoid being #2 or #3 so we don’t have to face the Clippers or the Rockets in the second round and then have to face the other in the WCF.


personally I'm not worried about HOU - I think we match up really well with them and they have essentially no HCA unlike Utah or Denver

to me, ideally we'd play someone like Portland or Dallas in the first round, Houston in the second round and the Clips in the WCF
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defense
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:18 pm    Post subject:

Go for 80-2

Let the weak load manage
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SuperboyReformed
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:55 pm    Post subject:

defense wrote:
Go for 80-2

Let the weak load manage

i agree. but if theres a major injury along the way, the fans will be up in arms.
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lounger
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 7:43 pm    Post subject:

SuperboyReformed wrote:
defense wrote:
Go for 80-2

Let the weak load manage

i agree. but if theres a major injury along the way, the fans will be up in arms.


nothing new, we win, we lose, fans are up in arms anyway.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:18 pm    Post subject:

I don't see them taking games off,but I do think its necessary that we don't play them too many minutes over the course of a game.
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:29 pm    Post subject:

I think this team is old school. They will play all out, and only IF they have secured the #1 seed will they then take games off or do load management. Sort of like you would see with Kobe, Shaq, or Kobe, Pau.

Maybe that's the wrong way to go about it, but it also sends a message to the entire team. We're here to play and win every game, every possession.

Kawhi would have no title with load management had he faced a healthy Golden State team. Yeah it worked for Kawhi, but even then it required immense luck in that Durant AND Klay were hurt in the same playoffs.
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manlisten
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:38 am    Post subject:

Four Decade Bandwagon wrote:
IMO they need to “plan” on winning every game until the very end of the season. Go by how the players feel and are performing.

Too many variables over a long season to “plan” load management days off. Easy to project wins until unexpected injuries and losses happen. Right about the time that James returns from some mental health days where the Lakers go .500 is when Murphy’s Law bites the team in the butt with an injury or a poor shooting streak.

Last season the Warriors had the best record with 57 wins. The 8th seed had 48 wins. That 9 game span may even be tighter this year. And that 6th, 7th or 8th seed even more dangerous.

Win them when they get the chance. There is an old adage about counting chickens before they hatch that applies here.


Yup. LeBron echoed this in his interview last night and spoke about nothing being promised and living in the moment.
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lakerboy
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:09 pm    Post subject:

our record is great, but it's a little bit concerning that we are not blowing teams out.

i don't want them to sit games, but it would be nice if lebron and ad wouldn't need to play 35+ min against non playoff teams like memphis
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SPO200
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 24, 2019 1:44 pm    Post subject:

I'm more concerned about the Mavericks than about the Rockets.
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cirehawk
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:02 pm    Post subject:

lakerboy wrote:
our record is great, but it's a little bit concerning that we are not blowing teams out.

i don't want them to sit games, but it would be nice if lebron and ad wouldn't need to play 35+ min against non playoff teams like memphis


The way I look at it, we have basically an all new team. It usually takes newly formed teams time to gel, regardless of how talented the individual pieces are. Players have to learn their teammates tendencies, and the coaches have to figure out rotations. The fact that this team is 14-2 while still figuring out how to play together is very encouraging. Added to that is the fact we've been without AB, who is one of our toughest perimeter defenders, for a bit. All in all, I'm not really concerned at this point that we don't have many blowouts.
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parsons777
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:02 pm    Post subject:

I would sit AD and Lebron on 12/4 in Utah, and not just because I am going to the game on 12/6 in PDX, but because it just seems to make more sense then going for every back-to-back.
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parsons777
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:03 pm    Post subject:

SPO200 wrote:
I'm more concerned about the Mavericks than about the Rockets.
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Brawn13
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:37 pm    Post subject:

parsons777 wrote:
I would sit AD and Lebron on 12/4 in Utah, and not just because I am going to the game on 12/6 in PDX, but because it just seems to make more sense then going for every back-to-back.


They better not sit. I’m going to the game lol
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:26 am    Post subject:

SPO200 wrote:
I'm more concerned about the Mavericks than about the Rockets.


I dunno. Playing the Rockets plus Harden's three lackeys (aka the refs) is always a daunting task.
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defense
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:37 am    Post subject:

Proper load management
Beat down opponent
Play guys less than 30 minutes

Everyone wins
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Lucky_Shot
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:48 am    Post subject:

LBJ is playing almost the exact amount of minutes he did last year before he got hurt. I think people forget injuries actually happen.

We need to start load managing now before we have a repeat of last year. Has everyone forgot last year? Hell has everyone forgot that Kobe had a injury at the same age as LBJ that ended his career (pretty much)

32 minutes a game
No back 2 back
and few games off here and there for LBJ and AD
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:51 am    Post subject:

defense wrote:
Proper load management
Beat down opponent
Play guys less than 30 minutes

Everyone wins


That isn’t load management. And it isn’t happening, we are keeping almost every team in the game.
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:22 am    Post subject:

Lucky_Shot wrote:
LBJ is playing almost the exact amount of minutes he did last year before he got hurt. I think people forget injuries actually happen.

We need to start load managing now before we have a repeat of last year. Has everyone forgot last year? Hell has everyone forgot that Kobe had a injury at the same age as LBJ that ended his career (pretty much)

32 minutes a game
No back 2 back
and few games off here and there for LBJ and AD


Therein lies the issue. To win they need their players and especially their stars to have impact every game.

Lakers have needed James and Davis to play the mins and with the intensity they have to be 17-2. How happy would you be if they followed your formula and were currently at 12-7 and battling for the 5th /6th seed?

Currently almost a quarter of the season has been played. Lakers have been fortunate with schedule and minimal missed games. Lakers are having a historic start and only a few games separate them from losing home court. West is tough and going to be a battle. Most likely there will be some injuries and losing streaks coming. That is when we will see just how good the overall team and role players really are. James is playing incredible as the focal point. But the test will be if (when) they need wins with him on the bench for any stretch of games. We will see.
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