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jonnybravo
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:47 pm    Post subject:

loslakersss wrote:
A reinvigorated Kershaw, Buehler, and Bauer top 3 would be insane.

I have a feeling that Kershaw is gonna be even better in 2021. The monkey off his back plus another trip to driveline are gonna do wonders.


Bauer, Joe Kelly and (hopefully) Kike on the same rosters. That'd be fun af.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:38 pm    Post subject:

Maeda and Ryu are both AL Cy Young finalists. And we won the championship anyway LOL. Gonsolin isn't a finalist for NL Rookie Of The Year.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:39 pm    Post subject:

Betts is an NL MVP finalist, along with Freeman and Machado. I expect Freeman to win. Also, Kevin Cash is an AL MOY finalist, and it's going to be hilarious when he wins.
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loslakersss
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:49 pm    Post subject:

jonnybravo wrote:
loslakersss wrote:
A reinvigorated Kershaw, Buehler, and Bauer top 3 would be insane.

I have a feeling that Kershaw is gonna be even better in 2021. The monkey off his back plus another trip to driveline are gonna do wonders.


Bauer, Joe Kelly and (hopefully) Kike on the same rosters. That'd be fun af.


Don’t forget Max “get it out of the ocean!” Muncy lol
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loslakersss
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:13 pm    Post subject:

The team is gonna live stream a championship celebration tomorrow at 6pm. It’ll be on sportsnet but i think it’ll also be steaming on social media.
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MookieBetts50
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:11 pm    Post subject:

Bauer just won NL Cy Young Award...appears to be out of our price range and NY Met bound.

Beuhler
Kershaw
Urias
Price
May
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 11, 2020 5:47 pm    Post subject:

MookieBetts50 wrote:
Bauer just won NL Cy Young Award...appears to be out of our price range and NY Met bound.

Beuhler
Kershaw
Urias
Price
May


He was the clear favorite to win it. What changed other than the fact that he actually won it today?

Doesn’t seem like new info.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:02 pm    Post subject:

OK, so here's a question I have about Nolan Arenado. He's been mentioned as a possible trade target by Jon Heyman and others. It absolutely seems like Colorado will trade him because he has an opt-out after the '21 season, as well as an opt-out after the '22 season. So let's say you're the Dodgers, and you know that Arenado wants to play here, and you also know that, since Arenado has a no-trade clause, he can essentially force his way here. If you're the Dodgers, would you prefer that he opts out after '21 or '22, or would you want his long-term contract on the books? If he doesn't opt out, he'd be locked in through 2026 with salaries as follows going forward: $35MM, $35MM, $35MM, $35MM, $32MM, $27MM.

I think you can argue that you'd rather have him for just 2 years, instead of for 6 more years, given his price tag and road OPS. Thoughts?
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:49 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
OK, so here's a question I have about Nolan Arenado. He's been mentioned as a possible trade target by Jon Heyman and others. It absolutely seems like Colorado will trade him because he has an opt-out after the '21 season, as well as an opt-out after the '22 season. So let's say you're the Dodgers, and you know that Arenado wants to play here, and you also know that, since Arenado has a no-trade clause, he can essentially force his way here. If you're the Dodgers, would you prefer that he opts out after '21 or '22, or would you want his long-term contract on the books? If he doesn't opt out, he'd be locked in through 2026 with salaries as follows going forward: $35MM, $35MM, $35MM, $35MM, $32MM, $27MM.

I think you can argue that you'd rather have him for just 2 years, instead of for 6 more years, given his price tag and road OPS. Thoughts?


I've had the pleasure of watching Arenado up close for a few years now in CO. The guy is every bit as good as the numbers suggest. I'd love to see him on the Dodgers long-term, but I'd also be really sad to not be able to watch him daily here.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 5:28 am    Post subject:

Much as I’d welcome Nolan on this team, the cost is high.

Not only would we have to pay a premium to get him, his salary probs makes it difficult or even impossible to keep both Bellinger and Seager long term.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:39 am    Post subject:

No to ex-Rockies. The splits are too great home and away to take the chance. I lean towards Nolan being more like our own Eric Young, Matt Holliday and Larry Walker (a noticeable drop in production but still very valuable) than like Vinny Castilla (complete drop off) but I would not expect him to maintain his Colorado like production like Andres Galarraga and Ellis Burks
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:41 pm    Post subject:

Freeman picks up NL MVP. Can't really hate on that - he balled out this year.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:43 pm    Post subject:

1995Lakers wrote:
No to ex-Rockies. The splits are too great home and away to take the chance. I lean towards Nolan being more like our own Eric Young, Matt Holliday and Larry Walker (a noticeable drop in production but still very valuable) than like Vinny Castilla (complete drop off) but I would not expect him to maintain his Colorado like production like Andres Galarraga and Ellis Burks


I agree with this.

You have to be very careful about Rockies players and expecting them to product the same way in a real ballpark.

I am not a big Nolan A guy at all and certainly not on an overpay.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:19 pm    Post subject:

LakerLanny wrote:
1995Lakers wrote:
No to ex-Rockies. The splits are too great home and away to take the chance. I lean towards Nolan being more like our own Eric Young, Matt Holliday and Larry Walker (a noticeable drop in production but still very valuable) than like Vinny Castilla (complete drop off) but I would not expect him to maintain his Colorado like production like Andres Galarraga and Ellis Burks


I agree with this.

You have to be very careful about Rockies players and expecting them to product the same way in a real ballpark.

I am not a big Nolan A guy at all and certainly not on an overpay.


I don't think I'd want him for 6 years, just because having him on the books at that # makes it far less likely that you could keep one or both or all 3 of Buehler/Seager/Bellinger long term.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:16 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
LakerLanny wrote:
1995Lakers wrote:
No to ex-Rockies. The splits are too great home and away to take the chance. I lean towards Nolan being more like our own Eric Young, Matt Holliday and Larry Walker (a noticeable drop in production but still very valuable) than like Vinny Castilla (complete drop off) but I would not expect him to maintain his Colorado like production like Andres Galarraga and Ellis Burks


I agree with this.

You have to be very careful about Rockies players and expecting them to product the same way in a real ballpark.

I am not a big Nolan A guy at all and certainly not on an overpay.


I don't think I'd want him for 6 years, just because having him on the books at that # makes it far less likely that you could keep one or both or all 3 of Buehler/Seager/Bellinger long term.


Yeah, wonder how many $30M+ players can we accommodate at the same time.

Right now we have 2 in Kershaw and Betts.

Somewhere down the line, we might be looking at 4: Betts, Buehler, Bellinger, Seager. If our limit is 4, then signing Bauer and/or acquiring Arenado would cost us 1 or 2 of Seager/Bellinger/Buehler. It all depends on how many $30M+ players can we accommodate at one time.

For example, 4 players will cost around $120M - $140M.

5 would be around $150M - $175M.

6 would be around $180M - $210M. Yeah, 5 and 6 looks like it’s out of the question. I’d say 4 max.

Luckily Bellinger and Buehler are still a few years away.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:17 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
LakerLanny wrote:
1995Lakers wrote:
No to ex-Rockies. The splits are too great home and away to take the chance. I lean towards Nolan being more like our own Eric Young, Matt Holliday and Larry Walker (a noticeable drop in production but still very valuable) than like Vinny Castilla (complete drop off) but I would not expect him to maintain his Colorado like production like Andres Galarraga and Ellis Burks


I agree with this.

You have to be very careful about Rockies players and expecting them to product the same way in a real ballpark.

I am not a big Nolan A guy at all and certainly not on an overpay.


I don't think I'd want him for 6 years, just because having him on the books at that # makes it far less likely that you could keep one or both or all 3 of Buehler/Seager/Bellinger long term.


Yeah, wonder how many $30M+ players can we accommodate at the same time.

Right now we have 2 in Kershaw and Betts.

Somewhere down the line, we might be looking at 4: Betts, Buehler, Bellinger, Seager. If our limit is 4, then signing Bauer and/or acquiring Arenado would cost us 1 or 2 of Seager/Bellinger/Buehler. It all depends on how many $30M+ players can we accommodate at one time.

For example, 4 players will cost around $120M - $140M.

5 would be around $150M - $175M.

6 would be around $180M - $210M. Yeah, 5 and 6 looks like it’s out of the question. I’d say 4 max.

Luckily Bellinger and Buehler are still a few years away.


I probably value Bellinger the least, which is saying something considering that I wasn't a Seager guy up until this year. Both of them are Scott Boras clients, remember. I don't think we're going to be able to keep both.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:59 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
LakerLanny wrote:
1995Lakers wrote:
No to ex-Rockies. The splits are too great home and away to take the chance. I lean towards Nolan being more like our own Eric Young, Matt Holliday and Larry Walker (a noticeable drop in production but still very valuable) than like Vinny Castilla (complete drop off) but I would not expect him to maintain his Colorado like production like Andres Galarraga and Ellis Burks


I agree with this.

You have to be very careful about Rockies players and expecting them to product the same way in a real ballpark.

I am not a big Nolan A guy at all and certainly not on an overpay.


I don't think I'd want him for 6 years, just because having him on the books at that # makes it far less likely that you could keep one or both or all 3 of Buehler/Seager/Bellinger long term.


Yeah, wonder how many $30M+ players can we accommodate at the same time.

Right now we have 2 in Kershaw and Betts.

Somewhere down the line, we might be looking at 4: Betts, Buehler, Bellinger, Seager. If our limit is 4, then signing Bauer and/or acquiring Arenado would cost us 1 or 2 of Seager/Bellinger/Buehler. It all depends on how many $30M+ players can we accommodate at one time.

For example, 4 players will cost around $120M - $140M.

5 would be around $150M - $175M.

6 would be around $180M - $210M. Yeah, 5 and 6 looks like it’s out of the question. I’d say 4 max.

Luckily Bellinger and Buehler are still a few years away.


I probably value Bellinger the least, which is saying something considering that I wasn't a Seager guy up until this year. Both of them are Scott Boras clients, remember. I don't think we're going to be able to keep both.


Yeah, I’d value Buehler the least.

Here’s why:

1) He’s already 26 years old this year.

2) We have control over him until after the 2024 season. He’ll turn 30 during that season.

3) His first free agent year will be 2025 when he’ll turn 31 (Jul 1994).

4) Assuming he continues to perform for the next 4 years, he’ll at the very least command a Strasburg type deal (7 years) and possibly even a Gerrit Cole type deal (9 years) or even more.

5) Buehler’s a power pitcher and his main weapon right now is his electric fastball. I don’t know how electric he can maintain that fastball into his 30s.

6) Conversely, Seager will be 28 for his first free agent season (born April 1994, free agent 2022).

Bellinger will be 29 for his first free agent year (born Jul 1995, free agent 2024).

Also, they are position players who typically are a safer investment than pitchers.

Yeah, it’s mainly Buehler’s age that worries me for his first big contract. Do we want to pay him big money for his age 31-37 seasons? That is exactly what Washington did when they signed Max Scherzer and it’s worked out well for them. Hopefully if we do sign Buehler, he turns out as well as Scherzer did, but it’s a very big risk.

I think we locked up Kershaw when he was 25, but he started to break down around age 30 (born Mar 1988).
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:36 pm    Post subject:

^
I think Bellinger has a lot of holes in his swing and, thus, can be pitched to more effectively in the postseason. Buehler is one of the few starting pitchers I trust implicitly in the postseason. I think a true ace starting pitcher is more valuable in the postseason that what Bellinger brings, but that's just my opinion.

Perhaps Buehler would be open to an extension that buys out his arb years and some of his free agent years, but doesn't necessarily take him up to age 35 or something.

We have Bellinger for 3 more years and Buehler or 4, if we want to. Of course, Seager for just one more. Worried we lose Seager, since he's a Boras client.
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:48 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
^
I think Bellinger has a lot of holes in his swing and, thus, can be pitched to more effectively in the postseason. Buehler is one of the few starting pitchers I trust implicitly in the postseason. I think a true ace starting pitcher is more valuable in the postseason that what Bellinger brings, but that's just my opinion.

Perhaps Buehler would be open to an extension that buys out his arb years and some of his free agent years, but doesn't necessarily take him up to age 35 or something.

We have Bellinger for 3 more years and Buehler or 4, if we want to. Of course, Seager for just one more. Worried we lose Seager, since he's a Boras client.


Yeah, I’m not comparing their values right now.

Right now, Bellinger is the least valuable of the 3, based on the season that he had.

But as far as impending free agents, assuming they all hit free agency when they do, I think Beuhler’s the least desirable based on his age and position (pitcher). Of course, if we can extend Buehler early so that we’re not on the hook late into his 30s, that would be ideal.

Honestly, when Buehler hits free agency in 4 years, it might take $40M/year to sign an elite starting pitcher. Cole’s at $36M/year.

So, in 4 years, we might be looking at $280M for 7 years to lock up Buehler.
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 9:58 am    Post subject:

Buehler is a true ace you can rely on to win playoff games, with nerves of steel, and those are immensely valuable, more-so than any position in baseball (2-3 times in a 7-game series they will decide the game). Look at what Bum was able to do up in SF. Unless Walker has a clear decline in velocity leading up to his free agency, I don't know how you don't keep him at all costs. Kershaw will also be gone by then.

The good thing is we have some time to figure this out, and I agree that if we can buy out a couple of FA years along with his arb years, that'd be ideal.
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:52 am    Post subject:

Yeah Buehler is definitely someone I’d want to re-sign. Kershaw will be nearing retirement when Walker’s a FA so holding onto Walker will be even more important, unless somehow May or Gonsolin turn into aces. I’m not worried about 30-35 year old Walker declining much, after 35 is when I’d be more careful.

Belli on defense is incredible but as others have mentioned his bat is not nearly as reliable, at least not yet. Seager is definitely more valuable at the moment (that’s even without taking his postseason into consideration). But I’m not ready to give up on Belli becoming a better hitter yet. He has plenty of time plus all the help he needs.

Going back to Walker, I wouldn’t expect him to have that decline like Kershaw did around 30 because he’s not used nearly as much as Kershaw was. Kershaw was throwing 100+ pitches almost every regular season game throughout his mid-late 20’s. Nowadays it’s almost rare for a starter to get into a triple digit pitch count. This new style should help with longevity.
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:13 pm    Post subject:

I expect the FO to shell out. We have a chance at an all-time dynasty and nothing puts butts in the seats more than a WC contender, year-in, year-out. All this Boras talk is immaterial - of course he is going to ask for $$$, but Dodgers are one of the few teams that can not only shell out, but do so while building a winning team. Unless these guys plan on going to play for the Yankees (or the Mets), I don't think they want to be the #1 option on a team that can't afford anyone other than them. Maybe they squeak out a year or two of contention if the stars line up and they find a team with cap space, cheap pitching, and studly cost-controlled prospects . . . but they all are already on such a team. Maybe they just get tired of winning and want the big $$$, but LA offers essentially the best of all worlds - $$$, fame, championship level team, familiarity, great location . . . list goes on and on.

So I actually expect us to basically keep everyone and keep adding pieces. If not, what is the actual point of the Guggenheim group?

As to the Kersh/Walker stuff . . . yeah, not really comparable for reasons LosLakerss pointed out (and others). I'd also add that people have forever said Kershaw's awkward delivery puts an incredible amount of strain on his back, far more than other, less atypical pitching deliveries. He was always going to be a handle-with-care type pitcher in his later years. In other words, the velocity loss is as much a function of loss of back strength and core issues as it is arm strength. Walker has a much more prototypical delivery. This is all without pointing out the massive difference in workload between the two.
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:10 pm    Post subject:

Yeah, even if Kershaw and Buehler are not comparable, you’d be hard pressed to find an elite pitcher that stayed elite after turning 30.

Off the top of my head, Randy Johnson, Scherzer, Verlander? Even Verlander dropped off until he revitalized his career in Houston somehow.

But the list of elite pitchers that dropped off considerably:

Felix Hernandez
Pedro
Bumgarner, Lincecum, Cain
Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels
Oakland A’s big 3
Chris Sale
David Price
CC Sabathia
The list goes on and it’s really long.

I’m not saying Buehler can’t be the next Scherzer, Randy Johnson. I hope he is. But, seems like the odds are against him.

Pick any elite pitcher and look at his age 31-37 seasons. It’s not pretty.
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:11 pm    Post subject:

^ do you think with most of these guys they may have been overused in their prime which shortened it/caused them to decline so rapidly after 30?

I just look at guys like Brees and Brady who benefit from the change in how their game is played — they’re both still top 5-ish QB’s at 41+ years old. I think it’ll take some time before this new crop of players who are on stricter pitch counts, more days off, etc. get to the age where we can see if it makes a difference.

Cutheon bringing up Kershaw’s awkward delivery reminds me of how violent Bellinger’s swing is. Hopefully he can change it otherwise it could be problematic down the road (for his back).
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 14, 2020 6:18 am    Post subject:

loslakersss wrote:
^ do you think with most of these guys they may have been overused in their prime which shortened it/caused them to decline so rapidly after 30?


Like I said, I hope Buehler is like Scherzer and Randy Johnson. You sound confident that he’ll turn out like Scherzer and Randy Johnson. I hope you’re right.

You’re probably better at judging which pitchers will get hurt/decline and which will last a long time. I’m not really that good at judging. All I can do is look at the history.

Here’s a pitcher that’s trending in the opposite direction: Jacob deGrom.

Born: June 1988.

Since he’s turned 30, he’s won 2 Cy Youngs and almost won a 3rd this year. He’s gotten stronger and better after turning 30. Next year will be his age 33 season.

deGrom is a good example because his situation is/will be similar to Buehler’s.

Before 2019, entering his age 31 season, the Mets had control of him for 2 more years. He was set to become a free agent in 2021, his age 33 season. The Mets gave him a 5 yr $137.5M contract. $27.5M per year. What they did was replace his last 2 years of team control plus buy out his first 3 free agent years. Not bad. They’re on the hook until he’s 35. (They also have a club option for his age 36 season).

It’d be great if Buehler ages as well as deGrom and also takes a similar deal in 2 years.
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