Lakers #2 in paint defense
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leking006
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 3:26 pm    Post subject: Lakers #2 in paint defense

Why people here still blaming Lakers defense in the paint for the losses?

Last 8 games they are the #2 in the league in oppoonents points in the paint giving just 41.5 a game jist behind the Raptors (40.5). That was mostly without AD.

The flippers was dead last in that span with giving 57.3 pts per game in the paint.

It's their offense that was lacking in that losses until DS returned.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/defense/?sort=OPP_PTS_PAINT&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&LastNGames=8


Last edited by leking006 on Sun Feb 28, 2021 4:16 pm; edited 1 time in total
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governator
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 3:32 pm    Post subject:

Yeah, I think our offense is the one that stalled during the slide, especially the 3pt shooting but I didn’t know we were that good in the paint def, Gasol doing ok I guess
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 3:35 pm    Post subject:

Stats lie
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 3:36 pm    Post subject:

governator wrote:
Yeah, I think our offense is the one that stalled during the slide, especially the 3pt shooting but I didn’t know we were that good in the paint def, Gasol doing ok I guess


we’ve been doing a good job of stripping the ball when the man goes up and taking charges.
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RG73
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 3:42 pm    Post subject:

Halflife wrote:
Stats lie


You are conflating statistical analysis with factual data. If teams only scored x number of points in the painted area of the court during the course of a game, there is nothing to lie about. We have video evidence that this happened. End of story.

Now, if you want to talk about context, or say more fine grained analysis--like say 50% of the opponent points in the paint came in the last quarter or something--sure, that is a point for discussion. If we want to talk about some compound defensive statistic, sure, we can talk about whether the data used in creating that statistic give a relevant picture. But so long as we are talking about facts, facts are facts.
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MJST
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 3:47 pm    Post subject:

People only "don't care about the stats" when it gets in the way of them unjustly slandering one of our players.
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leking006
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 4:05 pm    Post subject:

RG73 wrote:
Halflife wrote:
Stats lie


You are conflating statistical analysis with factual data. If teams only scored x number of points in the painted area of the court during the course of a game, there is nothing to lie about. We have video evidence that this happened. End of story.

Now, if you want to talk about context, or say more fine grained analysis--like say 50% of the opponent points in the paint came in the last quarter or something--sure, that is a point for discussion. If we want to talk about some compound defensive statistic, sure, we can talk about whether the data used in creating that statistic give a relevant picture. But so long as we are talking about facts, facts are facts.


Actually as I watched their games, most of opponents paint points came early in the game as the Lakers adjusted they limit them more.
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leking006
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 4:07 pm    Post subject:

RG73 wrote:
Halflife wrote:
Stats lie


You are conflating statistical analysis with factual data. If teams only scored x number of points in the painted area of the court during the course of a game, there is nothing to lie about. We have video evidence that this happened. End of story.

Now, if you want to talk about context, or say more fine grained analysis--like say 50% of the opponent points in the paint came in the last quarter or something--sure, that is a point for discussion. If we want to talk about some compound defensive statistic, sure, we can talk about whether the data used in creating that statistic give a relevant picture. But so long as we are talking about facts, facts are facts.


I filtered the stat, Lakers is #1 in paint defense in the 2nd half, giving only 16.3 ppg. Which supported my observation as Gasol is always played better defensively during 3rd Q.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/defense/?sort=OPP_PTS_PAINT&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&LastNGames=8&GameSegment=Second%20Half

#1 in paint defense in the 4th for the past 8 games giving only 5 ppg.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/defense/?sort=OPP_PTS_PAINT&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&GameSegment=Second%20Half&LastNGames=8&Period=4

Meanwhile Nets and Flippers are at the bottom.
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leking006
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 4:22 pm    Post subject:

governator wrote:
Yeah, I think our offense is the one that stalled during the slide, especially the 3pt shooting but I didn’t know we were that good in the paint def, Gasol doing ok I guess


And that is mostly without AD.
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governator
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:00 pm    Post subject:

leking006 wrote:
governator wrote:
Yeah, I think our offense is the one that stalled during the slide, especially the 3pt shooting but I didn’t know we were that good in the paint def, Gasol doing ok I guess


And that is mostly without AD.


Somebody tell me it’s cause of Gasol/Harrell, please?
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:00 pm    Post subject:

leking006 wrote:
RG73 wrote:
Halflife wrote:
Stats lie


You are conflating statistical analysis with factual data. If teams only scored x number of points in the painted area of the court during the course of a game, there is nothing to lie about. We have video evidence that this happened. End of story.

Now, if you want to talk about context, or say more fine grained analysis--like say 50% of the opponent points in the paint came in the last quarter or something--sure, that is a point for discussion. If we want to talk about some compound defensive statistic, sure, we can talk about whether the data used in creating that statistic give a relevant picture. But so long as we are talking about facts, facts are facts.


I filtered the stat, Lakers is #1 in paint defense in the 2nd half, giving only 16.3 ppg. Which supported my observation as Gasol is always played better defensively during 3rd Q.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/defense/?sort=OPP_PTS_PAINT&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&LastNGames=8&GameSegment=Second%20Half

#1 in paint defense in the 4th for the past 8 games giving only 5 ppg.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/defense/?sort=OPP_PTS_PAINT&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&GameSegment=Second%20Half&LastNGames=8&Period=4

Meanwhile Nets and Flippers are at the bottom.


I was curious about the entire season to date:

#17 in 4th Quarter

#8 in 2nd half (probably the halftime adjustment spike)

#19 on the year overall.

Lesser talented teams are staying in games makes sense when you look at that #19 rating.
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leking006
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:06 pm    Post subject:

LakerSD wrote:
leking006 wrote:
RG73 wrote:
Halflife wrote:
Stats lie


You are conflating statistical analysis with factual data. If teams only scored x number of points in the painted area of the court during the course of a game, there is nothing to lie about. We have video evidence that this happened. End of story.

Now, if you want to talk about context, or say more fine grained analysis--like say 50% of the opponent points in the paint came in the last quarter or something--sure, that is a point for discussion. If we want to talk about some compound defensive statistic, sure, we can talk about whether the data used in creating that statistic give a relevant picture. But so long as we are talking about facts, facts are facts.


I filtered the stat, Lakers is #1 in paint defense in the 2nd half, giving only 16.3 ppg. Which supported my observation as Gasol is always played better defensively during 3rd Q.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/defense/?sort=OPP_PTS_PAINT&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&LastNGames=8&GameSegment=Second%20Half

#1 in paint defense in the 4th for the past 8 games giving only 5 ppg.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/defense/?sort=OPP_PTS_PAINT&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&GameSegment=Second%20Half&LastNGames=8&Period=4

Meanwhile Nets and Flippers are at the bottom.


I was curious about the entire season to date:

#17 in 4th Quarter

#8 in 2nd half (probably the halftime adjustment spike)

#19 on the year overall.

Lesser talented teams are staying in games makes sense when you look at that #19 rating.


At least we already know that they've already improve their paint defense now in their last 8 games.

And we can see that they are really good in adjusting, so basically in a 7 game series they will not only adjust in the 2nd half but they will immediately adjust their defense most of the games. Hence the best way to beat the Lakers is in Game 1, because in Game 2 onwards 5ey will definitely adjust their defense, like what they did to the Blazers and Rockets. They kinda adjusted hard to the Heat because their rotation almost changes every game as Bam got injured and return.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:43 pm    Post subject:

LakerSD wrote:

<snip>

#19 on the year overall.

Lesser talented teams are staying in games makes sense when you look at that #19 rating.


Just for kicks I thought I'd look at Miami who is top of the list in points given up in the paint:
* Miami gives up 40 points in the paint out of a total 110 points on 89 shots.
Opponents shoot 37% from 3 on 41 shots.
* Lakers' give up 48 points in the paint out of a total 106 on 87 shots.
Opponents shoot 35% from 3 on 33 shots.

So compared to Miami:
* Lakers are defending the 3 better by 2%
* Lakers are giving up 8 fewer 3's per game (which roughly equates to 8.5 points)
* Lakers are giving up 8 more paint points

So even though Miami gives up fewer points in the paint, they more than negate that gain by giving up more 3's at a higher percentage.
This is one of the reasons why despite giving up a greater number of paint points the Lakers are still very high on overall defensive rating.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:50 pm    Post subject:

ThePageDude wrote:
LakerSD wrote:

<snip>

#19 on the year overall.

Lesser talented teams are staying in games makes sense when you look at that #19 rating.


Just for kicks I thought I'd look at Miami who is top of the list in points given up in the paint:
* Miami gives up 40 points in the paint out of a total 110 points on 89 shots.
Opponents shoot 37% from 3 on 41 shots.
* Lakers' give up 48 points in the paint out of a total 106 on 87 shots.
Opponents shoot 35% from 3 on 33 shots.

So compared to Miami:
* Lakers are defending the 3 better by 2%
* Lakers are giving up 8 fewer 3's per game (which roughly equates to 8.5 points)
* Lakers are giving up 8 more paint points

So even though Miami gives up fewer points in the paint, they more than negate that gain by giving up more 3's at a higher percentage.
This is one of the reasons why despite giving up a greater number of paint points the Lakers are still very high on overall defensive rating.


Lately teams are shooting the lights out on 3 vs lakers though.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:59 pm    Post subject:

ThePageDude wrote:
LakerSD wrote:

<snip>

#19 on the year overall.

Lesser talented teams are staying in games makes sense when you look at that #19 rating.


Just for kicks I thought I'd look at Miami who is top of the list in points given up in the paint:
* Miami gives up 40 points in the paint out of a total 110 points on 89 shots.
Opponents shoot 37% from 3 on 41 shots.
* Lakers' give up 48 points in the paint out of a total 106 on 87 shots.
Opponents shoot 35% from 3 on 33 shots.

So compared to Miami:
* Lakers are defending the 3 better by 2%
* Lakers are giving up 8 fewer 3's per game (which roughly equates to 8.5 points)
* Lakers are giving up 8 more paint points

So even though Miami gives up fewer points in the paint, they more than negate that gain by giving up more 3's at a higher percentage.
This is one of the reasons why despite giving up a greater number of paint points the Lakers are still very high on overall defensive rating.


Great post
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:54 am    Post subject:

Ok but Miami plays a totally different style than the Lakers. They pack the paint and dare you to make 3s.

The Vogel system is more run you off the 3 point line, so you better have the rim protection. That’s why big men are noticeable in his defensive schemes (Hibbert, Howard, McGee, etc.)

Given today’s 3 point happy league, I prefer Vogel’s system. All I’m saying is you need rim protection in that system because you aren’t clogging the paint like Miami. Obviously, AD will take care most of the minutes in the playoffs but it would be nice to have a little insurance.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:50 am    Post subject:

Amazing how we're still great at defending the paint without AD.

When teams are on fire from three that's one thing, but you saw what we did to teams like the Trailblazers and the Warriors.

Now, we funnel people to the paint to chase them off the line, but we also throw off their rhythm and plan of attack. The success they find in the 1st Half they do not find in the 2nd Half because we've made defensive adjustments.


If our three point shooting was as it was at the beginning of the year we'd be blowing out even more teams. But the three point shooting has fallen off, and yet and still we're playing solid to great defensive games, our offense just didn't step up. But the only offense we could run without both AD and Schroeder was essentially LeBron and 4 out fir the most part. A bunch of spot up shooters surrounded by LeBron, all unable to make their own offense outside of Harrell. Thus, when KCP, Wes, THT, Kuzma are all shooting terrible from three, the offense doesn't have many more options outside of what LeBron can already do.

That is why getting DS back helped not just the offense but our already solid defense.

There's a reason we're still 2nd in the league defensively despite not having AD right now.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2021 12:10 pm    Post subject:

LakerSD wrote:
Ok but Miami plays a totally different style than the Lakers. They pack the paint and dare you to make 3s.

The Vogel system is more run you off the 3 point line, so you better have the rim protection. That’s why big men are noticeable in his defensive schemes (Hibbert, Howard, McGee, etc.)

Given today’s 3 point happy league, I prefer Vogel’s system. All I’m saying is you need rim protection in that system because you aren’t clogging the paint like Miami. Obviously, AD will take care most of the minutes in the playoffs but it would be nice to have a little insurance.


Now we get into the interpretation of the data - where opinions can/will vary.
I 100% agree with you on this part : it's Vogel's defensive scheme to funnel shooters into the paint and then rely on good-to-great-bigs (Davis, Anthony) to provide above-average paint-deterrence; we give up paint shots in favor of good/comfortable 3-pointers. I also agree our defense would be even better if we had better (than Gasol/Trezz) rim-protection, we're top-2 right now but with even better rim-protection we'll be the indisputable top defensive team by a wide margin.
But this begs the question: if we're playing league-topping defense, and knowing that our schedule has been relatively soft, then why is our record a pretty "mediocre" (for us) 3rd/4th in the league? If it's not our defense, then ... what is it?
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2021 1:16 pm    Post subject:

ThePageDude wrote:
LakerSD wrote:
Ok but Miami plays a totally different style than the Lakers. They pack the paint and dare you to make 3s.

The Vogel system is more run you off the 3 point line, so you better have the rim protection. That’s why big men are noticeable in his defensive schemes (Hibbert, Howard, McGee, etc.)

Given today’s 3 point happy league, I prefer Vogel’s system. All I’m saying is you need rim protection in that system because you aren’t clogging the paint like Miami. Obviously, AD will take care most of the minutes in the playoffs but it would be nice to have a little insurance.


Now we get into the interpretation of the data - where opinions can/will vary.
I 100% agree with you on this part : it's Vogel's defensive scheme to funnel shooters into the paint and then rely on good-to-great-bigs (Davis, Anthony) to provide above-average paint-deterrence; we give up paint shots in favor of good/comfortable 3-pointers. I also agree our defense would be even better if we had better (than Gasol/Trezz) rim-protection, we're top-2 right now but with even better rim-protection we'll be the indisputable top defensive team by a wide margin.
But this begs the question: if we're playing league-topping defense, and knowing that our schedule has been relatively soft, then why is our record a pretty "mediocre" (for us) 3rd/4th in the league? If it's not our defense, then ... what is it?


Obvously, the offense, almost 15 games now that the team is shooting below 30% 3pt shot other than Gasol who is around 40%. Add to that in the 4 game losing streak they dont have 2 out of their top 3 scorer so the offense suffered more.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:03 pm    Post subject:

leking006 wrote:

<snip>
Obvously, the offense, almost 15 games now that the team is shooting below 30% 3pt shot other than Gasol who is around 40%. Add to that in the 4 game losing streak they dont have 2 out of their top 3 scorer so the offense suffered more.


I see. But before the 4 games both DS and AD were playing? Why were we "kinda meh" back then too? 3-point shooting?
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2021 4:59 pm    Post subject:

ThePageDude wrote:
leking006 wrote:

<snip>
Obvously, the offense, almost 15 games now that the team is shooting below 30% 3pt shot other than Gasol who is around 40%. Add to that in the 4 game losing streak they dont have 2 out of their top 3 scorer so the offense suffered more.


I see. But before the 4 games both DS and AD were playing? Why were we "kinda meh" back then too? 3-point shooting?


Like I said the reason is 3pt shooting with only Gasol shooting good at 40% the rest was 27% in those 15 games even with AD and DS. Because of that slump, they are now at the bottom of overall 3pt shooting this season, add to that AD is not 100%, he only average 22 ppg this season compare to last season.

Once AD return 100% and get back to his form last season and their shooting up even at average %, they will be hard to beat.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:05 pm    Post subject:

Another good thing about Lakers is they are good in adjustments. You can see in their game that team might burn them in the 1st half but they will immediately adjust their defense in the 2nd half.

This will be beneficial in the playoffs. As we know they can adjust their game as early as 2nd half of game 1 onwards. That's why Lakers is hard to beat in a 7 game series, teams might beat them in Game 1 but after that when Lakers adjusted, they will win all the way, just like last playoffs.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:52 pm    Post subject:

when teams can score lights out from 3 pt, why would they try to score in paint?

another skewed stat which doesn't show whole picture
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:19 pm    Post subject:

Facts lie
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:26 pm    Post subject:

leking006 wrote:
ThePageDude wrote:
leking006 wrote:

<snip>

Like I said the reason is 3pt shooting with only Gasol shooting good at 40% the rest was 27% in those 15 games even with AD and DS. Because of that slump, they are now at the bottom of overall 3pt shooting this season, add to that AD is not 100%, he only average 22 ppg this season compare to last season.

Once AD return 100% and get back to his form last season and their shooting up even at average %, they will be hard to beat.


The 3P% sounds like a reasonable candidate so I thought I'd do a bit of digging. Here are prior and current year numbers for our "shooters" playing 15+ minutes/game (in order of 3 point field goals attempted per game):

LBJ: .348 -> .358 (6.6)
KK : .316 -> .363 (4.8)
KCP: .385 -> .408 (3.9)
WM: .364 -> .341 (3.3)
DS : .385 -> .305 (3.1)
MM : .333 -> .299 (2.7)
AD : .330 -> .293 (2.5)
AC : .333 -> .388 (2.4)
THT: .308 -> .281 (1.9)

(Ignore MG who didn't play last year)

Our 3 highest volume shooters are actually doing better this year. In fact, taken together these 9 are doing almost exactly the same as last year (32.4 vs 32.3 points scored off 3's by these 9 - I was rather surprised by this).
So .. the 3-shooting from our main rotation seems to have stayed pretty much the same as last year - roughly half the guys are shooting better but the other half are doing worse.
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