Line up issues: Time to bench Matthews?
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Laker7
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:40 am    Post subject: Line up issues: Time to bench Matthews?

Silver Screen and Roll published the following article about the 5 most used Laker lineups this season.

Link

The two most unproductive lineups the Lakers have used this far are:

Matthews, LBJ, Morris, Kuzma, and Harrell (49 minutes total) -29.7 differential

Matthews, AD, Schroeder, Harrell, and Kuzma (33 minutes total) -18.2 differential

The three most productive lineups the Lakers have used this far are:

LBJ, AD, Gasol, KCP and Schroeder (158 minutes total) +23.6 differential

LBJ, AD, Gasol. Kuzma, Schroeder (42 minutes total) +7.1 differential

LBJ, Morris, Harrell, Kuzma, Caruso (29 minutes total) +9.6 differential


Kuzma, Morris and Harrell are all in good and bad lineups but Matthews only seems to be in the lineups with negative differentials. When you look at individual defensive ratings, Matthews is giving up a team high 103.6 points per 100 possessions Link. KCP and LBJ are at 101, everyone else is below 100.

Based on this information, is it time to replace Matthews with THT in the rotation?
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:59 am    Post subject:

I appreciate your research on the lineups but I am not seeing Mathews and THT as interchangeable.

Matthews plays his role. Hopefully he continues to find his chemistry with the rest of the team. In theory, he should be better then this.

THT plays a different role. He is more effective with the ball in his hands and being aggressive not off ball as Mathews. Just needs to be more efficient and play consistent defense. Just tough because when THT is in it takes the ball out of James’ or Schroeder’s hands. Is that really what you want?
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:10 am    Post subject:

AD and Lebron are already bored--what do you think is going to happen if they don't have to bail the team out of those bad line up holes? Nah, they have to run some bad lineups to keep the stars engaged.

Seriously, I'm not sure the sample size is sufficient to draw any meaningful conclusions from yet. You'd also have to account for when certain line ups are in--e.g. is Matthews coming in during garbage time or when the team is otherwise disengaged? 13-4, I'm not going to worry about it.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:04 am    Post subject:

I see that it's Wes Mathews' turn in the barrel.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:21 am    Post subject:

a deeper look shows that he excels in lineups with both AD and Lebron. And he is someone we are going to depend on when we face bigger wings so the last thing we should be doing is benching him. Instead stagger more of Schroeder's minutes into bench units so that Wes can get more minutes with AD and Lebron.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:28 am    Post subject:

No.

.L. James, .W. Matthews, .A. Davis, .M. Harrell, .K. Kuzma
9 minutes +55.6 net

.L. James, .W. Matthews, .A. Davis, .D. Schroder, .K. Kuzma
11 minutes +45.2 net

.L. James, .W. Matthews, .M. Morris, .M. Harrell, .A. Caruso
11 minutes +36 net

.L. James, .M. Gasol, .W. Matthews, .M. Morris, .D. Schroder
16 minutes 23.1 net

It's not a matter of sitting 1 particular player. It's about keeping all the guys fresh while playing the most optimal lineups while other guys are resting.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:49 am    Post subject:

I strongly believed that Matthews will be part of our death lineup. He’s quick enough to rotate with quick players and have the size and sturdy enough to hold his own against bigger players. In essence, they can’t hunt him defensively.

But in regular season, Vogel should minimize his minutes and give it to THT, Caruso and Kuzma. Wes doesn’t need all the time to get acclimated to his role, he has been playing that 3 and D throughout his career. He just need enough time to develop that chemistry and that opportunity should be given when someone nursing an injury. Not in expense of DNP THT.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:01 am    Post subject:

In the 5 lineups listed, the two with the worst differential have only 1 ball handler (Schroeder or LBJ). No secondary ball handler.

The three best lineups have two ball handlers (LBJ and Schroeder or Caruso).

THT is a better ball handler and can initiate the offense better than Matthews. Matthews is not a distributor. I am just saying.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:04 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
No.

.L. James, .W. Matthews, .A. Davis, .M. Harrell, .K. Kuzma
9 minutes +55.6 net

.L. James, .W. Matthews, .A. Davis, .D. Schroder, .K. Kuzma
11 minutes +45.2 net

.L. James, .W. Matthews, .M. Morris, .M. Harrell, .A. Caruso
11 minutes +36 net

.L. James, .M. Gasol, .W. Matthews, .M. Morris, .D. Schroder
16 minutes 23.1 net

It's not a matter of sitting 1 particular player. It's about keeping all the guys fresh while playing the most optimal lineups while other guys are resting.


All your lineups are 16 minutes or less. 47 total minutes out of a possible 816 minutes the team has played. Not sure your sample size is big enough. I will grant you Frank is using a lot of different lineups.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 12:15 pm    Post subject:

N. O. No
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 12:38 pm    Post subject:

Matthews is overrated and slow. Yes, he can hit the 3pt shot but his defense is average... and we'll need him as part of the rotation guarding Kawhi and George. He'll get abused.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 12:51 pm    Post subject:

It’s too early. I mean that one lineup has Dennis, Matthews and Harrell. Three new guys. I’d expect issues.

The LBJ lineup with all the forwards may ultimately depend on what LBJ game he’s playing. Does he want to get to the rim or is he going to settle and we see no touching the paint? And then defensively are we switching (no) or are we trying to play the same schemes?

It’s painful watching some combos right now but it’s still very early.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:00 pm    Post subject:

call me old fashioned, but i think lineups depend heavily on (a) the opponent matchups, (b) whether you're ahead or behind, and (c) who's playing well at that moment..

It appears to me anyhow that none of the stats account for these three attributes.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 4:09 pm    Post subject:

M2K wrote:
Matthews is overrated and slow. Yes, he can hit the 3pt shot but his defense is average... and we'll need him as part of the rotation guarding Kawhi and George. He'll get abused.


He’s a “big name” who is 34 and has had an Achilles rupture. Would have preferred someone like David Nwaba to fill the three and D role.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:53 pm    Post subject:

Matthews is slightly worse than Green was. I put him in the same category as Kieff. Okay, but not good. They are place holders. Throw Gasol in that category, too.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 6:35 pm    Post subject:

Like Gasol or Dwight, Wes is needed for specific playoff scenarios. If we play a wing heavy team than we'll need his minutes. Just like we'll need Gasol against true centers. +- in the regular season isn't the goal. We need to get Wes sharp and integrated into the team for the playoffs.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:03 pm    Post subject: Re: Line up issues: Time to bench Matthews?

Laker7 wrote:
Silver Screen and Roll published the following article about the 5 most used Laker lineups this season.

Link

The two most unproductive lineups the Lakers have used this far are:

Matthews, LBJ, Morris, Kuzma, and Harrell (49 minutes total) -29.7 differential

Matthews, AD, Schroeder, Harrell, and Kuzma (33 minutes total) -18.2 differential

The three most productive lineups the Lakers have used this far are:

LBJ, AD, Gasol, KCP and Schroeder (158 minutes total) +23.6 differential

LBJ, AD, Gasol. Kuzma, Schroeder (42 minutes total) +7.1 differential

LBJ, Morris, Harrell, Kuzma, Caruso (29 minutes total) +9.6 differential


Kuzma, Morris and Harrell are all in good and bad lineups but Matthews only seems to be in the lineups with negative differentials. When you look at individual defensive ratings, Matthews is giving up a team high 103.6 points per 100 possessions Link. KCP and LBJ are at 101, everyone else is below 100.

Based on this information, is it time to replace Matthews with THT in the rotation?


Too early in the season to worry about stuff like this.

The key is Lebron and AD. The team will play with different combinations around them. Come playoff time, they will settle down into a rotation, which might vary depending on matchups.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 6:55 am    Post subject:

Wesley is supposed to be in a Danny Green type role around a lineup that has Bron running point, AD being the target interior player who can slide out and shoot some 3s. Defensively, be what he is and has shown.

Unfortunately by bringing him off the bench, you're reducing the type of good looks he is getting. When Wes plays, it should be almost always be in a lineup where he is getting open looks around AD/Bron. Mike AT LG posted two AD-Bron lineups that Wesley was on, and the net ratings are quite good (Look above for his post).

I see Wesley along the lines of Kieff. He doesn't look good now, but come playoffs, we could even depend on him (like Kieff) to come in a game and play starter minutes and even start.

You're probably better off developing THT than playing Wesley in a role he does not fit. But a few things are in play there. Frank has to get Wesley in game shape. Frank has to get Wesley to understand the schemes on offense and defense. A lot of the lineups we are using now, we will not even think of utilizing in the playoffs. Based on what I saw last year, Frank changed his lineups and strategy around quite a bit in the playoffs vs what we were doing in the RS.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:00 am    Post subject:

FWIW,

Wesley is shooting 40% from 3 with 1.5 makes, in a situation where he is not getting the looks that KCP/Dennis/Gasol are around AD/Bron. Only KCP is taking advantage of the situation, as a spot up shooter, right now. If Wes were starting, I easily think he makes more 3s as he gets more open looks. At some point, it is possible that Frank will move AD to the 5, or move a non-AD/Bron/KCP guy out of the starting lineup, and bring in a Caruso or Wesley as starter. It is usually how we play our best ball, when we have a bit more perimeter D, and more outside shooting. Honestly, I still want to see just for a few games, a lineup of AD/Bron/Wesley/KCP/Caruso. I think that is our best 2-way lineup, in terms of floor balance and complimentary skills.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 8:44 am    Post subject:

wolfpaclaker wrote:
FWIW,

Wesley is shooting 40% from 3 with 1.5 makes, in a situation where he is not getting the looks that KCP/Dennis/Gasol are around AD/Bron. Only KCP is taking advantage of the situation, as a spot up shooter, right now. If Wes were starting, I easily think he makes more 3s as he gets more open looks. At some point, it is possible that Frank will move AD to the 5, or move a non-AD/Bron/KCP guy out of the starting lineup, and bring in a Caruso or Wesley as starter. It is usually how we play our best ball, when we have a bit more perimeter D, and more outside shooting. Honestly, I still want to see just for a few games, a lineup of AD/Bron/Wesley/KCP/Caruso. I think that is our best 2-way lineup, in terms of floor balance and complimentary skills.


I think our glut of *good-to-great* guards, not just adequate guards, is making it challenging for Vogel to settle on lineups AND remain fair. Plus Wes is a very well known quantity so at this point in the season more time is going to guys who need to be developed (THT) or need vigorous acclimation (DS).
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 8:49 am    Post subject:

Bottom line KCP, Caruso are superior to Matthews and I would argue THT brings more to the table than Wes. He's an upgrade over Green, especially financially but that's not saying much.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 9:09 am    Post subject:

After reading all the posts I am of the opinion that while both players need and deserve playing time, THT is the best option when it comes to giving out playing time.

THT is younger, a better defender, a better ball handler and has more upside. While Matthews is a good (not great) defender, has more experience and is a better three point shooter, he is not the future. Matthews is 34 and coming off an Achilles injury. THT is 20 years old, healthy and already has a lot of teams interested in trading for him / signing him in free agency.

THT is a restricted free agent after this season. Keeping him on the bench for extended periods is not going to make him want to resign with the Lakers. The Lakers financial situation is not going to allow them to out pay other teams.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:15 am    Post subject:

Laker7 wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
No.

.L. James, .W. Matthews, .A. Davis, .M. Harrell, .K. Kuzma
9 minutes +55.6 net

.L. James, .W. Matthews, .A. Davis, .D. Schroder, .K. Kuzma
11 minutes +45.2 net

.L. James, .W. Matthews, .M. Morris, .M. Harrell, .A. Caruso
11 minutes +36 net

.L. James, .M. Gasol, .W. Matthews, .M. Morris, .D. Schroder
16 minutes 23.1 net

It's not a matter of sitting 1 particular player. It's about keeping all the guys fresh while playing the most optimal lineups while other guys are resting.


All your lineups are 16 minutes or less. 47 total minutes out of a possible 816 minutes the team has played. Not sure your sample size is big enough. I will grant you Frank is using a lot of different lineups.


That's my point. None of these are being played enough. Depending on the matchups of each lineup, and you can bet the Lakers have tape on this, this is the kind of information saved for the playoffs.

We're winning games. Why show your hand to the opposition to scout so easily?
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:20 am    Post subject:

CandyCanes wrote:
M2K wrote:
Matthews is overrated and slow. Yes, he can hit the 3pt shot but his defense is average... and we'll need him as part of the rotation guarding Kawhi and George. He'll get abused.


He’s a “big name” who is 34 and has had an Achilles rupture. Would have preferred someone like David Nwaba to fill the three and D role.


61% TS, near breakeven DBPM, on a slow start, with inconsistent PT? On that contract?

He's playing WAY above it right now.

Danny Green:

OBPM: -1.2
DBPM: +0.2
Overall: -1
VORP: 0.1

Wesley Matthews:

OBPM: -1.2
DBPM: -0.2
Overall: -1.4
VORP: 0

Difference in contract: Roughly $13 million.

Unlike Danny, Matthews doesn't even start, which would get the obvious OBPM boost from LeBron.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:57 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
CandyCanes wrote:
M2K wrote:
Matthews is overrated and slow. Yes, he can hit the 3pt shot but his defense is average... and we'll need him as part of the rotation guarding Kawhi and George. He'll get abused.


He’s a “big name” who is 34 and has had an Achilles rupture. Would have preferred someone like David Nwaba to fill the three and D role.


61% TS, near breakeven DBPM, on a slow start, with inconsistent PT? On that contract?

He's playing WAY above it right now.

Danny Green:

OBPM: -1.2
DBPM: +0.2
Overall: -1
VORP: 0.1

Wesley Matthews:

OBPM: -1.2
DBPM: -0.2
Overall: -1.4
VORP: 0

Difference in contract: Roughly $13 million.

Unlike Danny, Matthews doesn't even start, which would get the obvious OBPM boost from LeBron.


Not sure what those stats mean, but does that mean even Danny Green was basically only average on defense last year? I thought he was famous for his defense.
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