Joined: 01 Feb 2006 Posts: 10761 Location: Bay Area, CA
Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 1:52 pm Post subject: Re: what stats does bynum need to this year to meet his "hype"?
nomoreshaq wrote:
ill go first.
16 and 9 with 2 blocks, starts in 78 games and plays 32 MPG with above average man and weakside defense.
Depends what you mean by "his hype". The numbers you mention above would be spectacular and we're a pretty good team. Something like 12 PPG, 7 RPG would be pretty darn good in my book. Biggest step he can make is playing good defense while staying out of foul trouble, and being able to play hard for 30 minutes a game all season. I think the offense will come if he can accomplish those.
If he's getting starter minutes (which inherently means staying out of foul trouble) he has to get close to a double-double. _________________ Game recognize game, Granddad. - Riley Freeman, The Boondocks
Joined: 30 Nov 2006 Posts: 33474 Location: Long Beach, California
Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 2:12 pm Post subject:
The first premise which must be agreed upon is how many minutes will he play? The amount of playing time he receives should directly correlate with what stats we should project. We must remember that last year, if not for Mihm and Kwames' injuries, Bynum would have probably received 8-10 minutes a game. Now, if Kwame and Mihm are back and healthy, their playing time will definitely cut into Bynum's playing time regardless of how well Bynum produces.
I expect Bynum to get 25 minutes per game this year simpoly because with Mihm and Kwame in front/behind him, I don't know how he could squeeze any more than that, no matter how well he plays. The good news is that even if he has foul problems, he still should be able to stay on the floor for that amount of minutes. So if you buy my reasoning as to why he won't get much more time that last year and given that 25 minutes per game is only 3 more minutes than he played last year, how much production are those 3 minutes worth?
Bynum was a 8/6/2/1.5 guy last year in 22 minutes, which equaled out to 17/13/4/3 per 48 minutes. Next year, for him to be on schedule IMO, he should get to a minimum of 10/8/2/2, which would equal out to 19/15/4/4 per 48 minutes. However, he must also show an ability to intimidate on defense without fouling.... which is a bigger key than anything he does statistically. With such defense assumed, he honestly wouldn't have to do much more statistically for him to confirm himself as the next big thing in my eyes. If Bynum went up to 14/9/3/2 next year (with the aformentioned defense) in 25 minutes at age 20, I would proclaim him to be the next best center. His 48 minute totals would be - 27/17/6/4.
Because you have to take into account playing time in measuring his statistical increase, its not so much important what his gross figures are, but instead what his ratio increases are. That is why I use the 48 minute project... not because its a reliable projection, but because it demonstrates the difference in ratio depending on the playing time he gets. Improvement is doing more with the same amount of opportunity, not doing more because you have more opportunity. Given that Bynum won't be playing too many more minutes next year, if he improves his scoring by 2, rebounds by 2, and blocks by .5-1.0, that would be nice improvement and I will still have faith in his development. However, if he almost doubles his scoring averages and increases his rebounds by 3 with better defense, no doubt we have found our championship center. _________________ LakersGround's Terms of Service
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Last edited by LakerSanity on Tue Jul 24, 2007 2:13 pm; edited 1 time in total
points are not important. Scoring won't be a problem on this team as much as rebounds and defense. Bynum needs to be pulling down at least 9-10 rebs and not be a liability on defense. That's it. Any points he scores (i anticipate he averages 8 ppg) is gravy.
Joined: 02 May 2005 Posts: 90306 Location: Formerly Known As 24
Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 2:20 pm Post subject: Re: what stats does bynum need to this year to meet his "hype"?
Socks wrote:
nomoreshaq wrote:
ill go first.
16 and 9 with 2 blocks, starts in 78 games and plays 32 MPG with above average man and weakside defense.
Depends what you mean by "his hype". The numbers you mention above would be spectacular and we're a pretty good team. Something like 12 PPG, 7 RPG would be pretty darn good in my book. Biggest step he can make is playing good defense while staying out of foul trouble, and being able to play hard for 30 minutes a game all season. I think the offense will come if he can accomplish those.
Thanks Socks! Saved me a bit of typing... _________________ “We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” ― Elie Wiesel
Joined: 30 Nov 2006 Posts: 33474 Location: Long Beach, California
Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 2:27 pm Post subject:
Again, I think the expectations must be tempered by the minutes he plays. If Kwame and Mihm are both healthy and on the active roster this year, how many minutes can we FAIRLY project Bynum to play?
I ask this, because I see many people asking Bynum to produce double-digit rebounds next year. There were 20 players last year who averaged 9 or more rebounds - only two (Lee at 29.8 min. and Biedrins at 29.0 minutes) played under 33 minutes a game. Out of the 12 players who gathered 10 or more boards per game, only 1 player played under 33 minutes a game (Lee). The only player who played under 28 minutes a game and grabbed 8 or more rebounds last year was Jeff Foster (23 minutes per game).
Additionally, Biedrins was the ONLY player under 22 years old on the list (turned 21 in April) - in 29 minutes per game, he averaged 9.5 PPG and 9.3 RBD. Bynum is 19 and turns 20 in October.
I don't think it is fair to expect a double double out of ANY guy who plays 20-25 minutes a game, no less a 20 year old. I really think some of the expectations above are ridiculous unless you truly believe Phil is going to throw Bynum 33-37 minutes a game while wasting Kwame and Mihm on the bench next year. _________________ LakersGround's Terms of Service
However, the more important improvements are the intangibles, namely maintaining focus and intensity. Other things would be avoiding foul trouble, not rushing, and improving court awareness (mainly to become an anchor and utilize his passing ability) but those will come with experience.
He's talented and skilled enough that the stats won't even matter, so long as he plays with passion, intensity, and stays active on both sides of the ball.
Do that and I'll regain hope in the hype. _________________ Stephon Marbury on Kobe: "He's the only person on 'dis earth that can do 'dat. He guards people, like shuts 'em down. Then, to do 'dat on 'da offensive end. It's like 'Damn, I can't score on him AND he about to bust my ass."
Stat order of importance:
Minutes - Blocks - Rebounds -------- Points
Minutes - 28+
Blocks - 2+
Rebounds - 7+
Points - Anything over 10 - seriously _________________ Austin Reaves keeps his game tight, like Kobe Bryant on game night.
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