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Dennis_D
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 Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:04 pm Post subject: Lakers trade targets and their timings |
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Lots of posters are disappointed that the Lakers haven't made any big deals this summer. My impression is that the timing has been right for the Lakers to trade for the players they have targeted. Here are what I think those targets are based upon rumors we have heard and when I think a trade is most likely to happen:
Jermaine O'Neal of the Pacers near the trade deadline
The Pacers are coming off a 35-47 after a 41-41 season. They are a small market team and have the 9th highest payroll in the NBA. They have a new coach and point to their initial success after the trade with the Warriors for reasons of optimism. My guess is that the Lakers FO think that the Pacers aren't going to make the playoffs (and lots of bloggers and ESPN expertsp agree). If the Pacers realize before the trade deadline that they aren't going to make the playoffs, then they will probably want to slash payroll. Murphy and Dunleavy are probably untradeable because their big $$$ contracts run through '10-'11. Trading O'Neal for expiring contracts would tremendously improve the team's bottom line while better positioning the team for the future.
Yi Jianlian of the Bucks at the trade deadline
I don't see any point to the Bucks trading Yi earlier. He is exactly the type of player they need. The Bucks position has to be that if Yi is going to sit out the season, he is going to lose out on millions, embarrass his country, disappoint his government (who wants him to get as much NBA experience as possible before the 2008 Beijing Olympics), and have his marketability seriously damage. If Yi is going to shaft the Bucks, I expect the Bucks to try to hurt him as much as possible in return. So I think the Bucks will do a waiting game and then trade him at the last possible moment. If the Bucks trade him, they will probably use him to trade one of their bad contracts and/or acquire a future high draft pick. The longer they wait, the better idea they will have on who they want to get rid of and/or what team is likely to have a future high draft pick.
Marcus Camby of the Nuggests near the trade deadline
The Nuggets are coming off a 45-37 season in the weakest division of the Western Conference. They needed a 16-6 finish to even make the playoffs and then they had a first round exit. They have the 3rd highest payroll in the NBA. The salaries of their 5 most expensive players will increase after the '07-'08 season by $5.2M to $68.2M. They have very little depth - they are counting on Kenyon Martin to play back up C (a stretch for the 6'9" injury-plagued player); their tallest bench player besides Martin is 6'8"; their back up PG and SG are Chucky Atkins and Yakhouba Diawara; and they don't really have a back up SF. An injury could easily knock them out of playoffs. If the Nuggets struggle, they could be open to trading Camby for an expiring contract to get them out of the luxury tax.
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Bergamotichek
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| Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:05 pm Post subject: |
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| When is the last time the Lakers made a trade at the deadline? |
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golakersgo121
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| Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:09 pm Post subject: |
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| JD wrote: | | When is the last time the Lakers made a trade at the deadline? |
They have been very close to pulling the trigger last season at the trade deadline.
Generally answering your question, JD - like never (last one - I believe, Glenn Rice trade)
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Dude
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| Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Nene |
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KobeDunk
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| Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:09 pm Post subject: |
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| JD wrote: | | When is the last time the Lakers made a trade at the deadline? |
1999 when they got Glen Rice for Eddie Jones. Not one trade since!  |
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LakerJam
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| Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:06 pm Post subject: Re: Lakers trade targets and their timings |
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| Dennis_D wrote: |
Yi Jianlian of the Bucks at the trade deadline
I don't see any point to the Bucks trading Yi earlier. He is exactly the type of player they need. The Bucks position has to be that if Yi is going to sit out the season, he is going to lose out on millions, embarrass his country, disappoint his government (who wants him to get as much NBA experience as possible before the 2008 Beijing Olympics), and have his marketability seriously damage. If Yi is going to shaft the Bucks, I expect the Bucks to try to hurt him as much as possible in return. So I think the Bucks will do a waiting game and then trade him at the last possible moment. If the Bucks trade him, they will probably use him to trade one of their bad contracts and/or acquire a future high draft pick. The longer they wait, the better idea they will have on who they want to get rid of and/or what team is likely to have a future high draft pick.
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Sorry, but I don't get the whole, "embarrass his country" argument - especially when it's HIS COUNTRY that wants him in another market. Chinese citizens don't just decide to sit out on their own, they follow the instructions of their government. If he sits out, it's by THEIR design and it's not an embarrassment unless THEY decide it is. Either way, it's not Yi's call. |
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LA_Lakers_Rule
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| Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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^ wondered about that as well. All reports indicate that the Chinese government does not want Yi in Milwaukee but instead a higher profile city.
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oldschool32
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| Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:41 pm Post subject: |
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| LA_Lakers_Rule wrote: | | ^ wondered about that as well. All reports indicate that the Chinese government does not want Yi in Milwaukee but instead a higher profile city. |
I'm not 100% sure, but I also heard his Chineese team gets a cut of his earnings as well. So they have some input as to where they want him. Not sure how true that is though. |
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Dennis_D
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| Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 4:09 pm Post subject: |
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| JD wrote: | | When is the last time the Lakers made a trade at the deadline? |
The trade for Kidd was going to be at the last trade deadline.
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Pappy
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| Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 4:16 pm Post subject: |
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| Dennis_D wrote: | | JD wrote: | | When is the last time the Lakers made a trade at the deadline? |
The trade for Kidd was going to be at the last trade deadline. |
was! |
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Dennis_D
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| Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 4:17 pm Post subject: Re: Lakers trade targets and their timings |
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| LakerJam wrote: | | Sorry, but I don't get the whole, "embarrass his country" argument - especially when it's HIS COUNTRY that wants him in another market. Chinese citizens don't just decide to sit out on their own, they follow the instructions of their government. If he sits out, it's by THEIR design and it's not an embarrassment unless THEY decide it is. Either way, it's not Yi's call. |
From Hyphen Magazine, "Asian America Unabridged":
| Quote: | | so far, Yi is doing a good job of undermining China's paragon of hard work and determination. Yi's outright refusal to even communicate with the Bucks is downright disheartening and a sobering wake-up call. The NBA is not exactly brimming with Asian players, and Yi has a chance to tie together China with America in a way that not even Yao could. Even at 7', Yi relates more to the average basketball player than "The Great Wall" because of his style and flair. Yet, he spurns the opportunity to play for an NBA team, creating clouds of doubt over future Asian-based basketball players ("Do we really want to draft him? Remember what happened with that Yi Jianlian kid?"). |
From Slam Online:
| Quote: | The (Chinese) people have spoken: A online poll recently revealed that 68% of the 9,000 people that were polled want Yi Jianlian to sign with the Bucks. | Quote: | “Fegan will hamper Yi’s future,” former national team coach Qian Chenghai was quoted as saying in yesterday’s state-run China Daily newspaper. “I don’t think Yi refused to join the Bucks; it is Fegan who doesn’t want him to join.
“We don’t want to see Yi destroy his reputation in the NBA and return to the Chinese Basketball Association. That’s horrible.” |
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Dennis_D
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| Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 4:30 pm Post subject: |
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| LA_Lakers_Rule wrote: | | ^ wondered about that as well. All reports indicate that the Chinese government does not want Yi in Milwaukee but instead a higher profile city. |
Chinese government wants him in Milwaukee, but it's not their decision. From Spot-On:
| Quote: | The first basketballer to go to the NBA, Wang Zhizhi, had to get permission from his army team. Yao Ming had to deal with Chinese Basketball Administration (whom he once sued for violating his endorsement rights). Yi is blocked not by military men or politicians, but by businessmen. “The Chinese basketball authorities have become a lot more open in the past couple years,” says a sport editor of a major Chinese news magazine who has followed his case. “Now the rest is up to Team Yi.”
The Bucks didn’t quite get this. In another ironic twist, it’s the U.S. ball club that turned to official diplomacy, rather than the backroom bargaining of the free market that's come to run China. Conveniently, the team owner, Sen. Herb Kohl, has been a friend of China. He has a record of generally supporting the country on key issues such as most-favored nation trading status, and the department stores that bear his family name are filled with wares made in Yi's home province. Soon after the draft, Kohl personally wrote a letter inviting Yi to tour Milwaukee. Later, according to the sport marketing exec, the Bucks tried to use Kohl’s political connections to influence the Yi camp. “But they [Chinese officials] said, know, ‘Hey we don’t represent Yi Jianlian,’” says the exec. “The Bucks wanted to rattle some cages. But in China you got to know what cages you’re rattling.” |
More on how the Chinese want Yi to go to Milwaukee from the same source:
| Quote: | | Alas Team Yi’s fighting a losing public relations battle. Virtually everyone, save Yi’s American agent and his Cantonese team – his biggest and most powerful stakeholders – thinks Yi should sign and suit up with the Bucks this season. NBA rules dictate that if he is to play in the league next year, he must. The 2008 Chinese Olympics squad clearly needs him, as well and Chinese basketball authorities granted him unprecedented permission to join the entire pre-draft road show, fully anticipating that he would. The vast majority of Chinese fans, Internet polls and bulletin board have shown, are vehemently pushing him to go to Milwaukee. The head of the Chinese Basketball Association even said last week he would travel there to help resolve the deadlock. |
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Laker's Fan
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| Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 6:18 pm Post subject: |
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No way they wait until deadline to move Yi. If you think the offers are bad not waite until teams know its this or nothing.
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REPPIN 818
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| Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 6:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Pappy wrote: | | Dennis_D wrote: | | JD wrote: | | When is the last time the Lakers made a trade at the deadline? |
The trade for Kidd was going to be at the last trade deadline. |
was! |
Don't blame Mitch for that, it would be an EXTREMELY stupid trade. |
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J.C. Smith
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| Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 6:46 pm Post subject: |
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| JD wrote: | | When is the last time the Lakers made a trade at the deadline? |
It's been a long time, but they were certainly on the phones a lot last year at the deadline (Bibby and Kidd), so I wouldn't rule it out. |
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activeverb
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| Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:57 pm Post subject: |
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| No offense, but it's pretty meaningless at this point to try to predict how things will stand at the trading deadline. |
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Tony Montana
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| Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 3:40 am Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | | No offense, but it's pretty meaningless at this point to try to predict how things will stand at the trading deadline. |
No doubt; you might as well take heed of the annual psychic predictions in Star magazine... |
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Bergamotichek
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| Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 4:14 am Post subject: |
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| J.C. Smith wrote: | | JD wrote: | | When is the last time the Lakers made a trade at the deadline? |
It's been a long time, but they were certainly on the phones a lot last year at the deadline (Bibby and Kidd), so I wouldn't rule it out. |
Could have, should have, would have...
Fact is, its been 8 years. In other words... don't hold your breath. |
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 4:30 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Trading O'Neal for expiring contracts would tremendously improve the team's bottom line while better positioning the team for the future. |
How? By giving them cap space so they can overpay for free agents? The Pacers are not going to trade an all star caliber player for expiring contracts.
| Quote: | | If the Nuggets struggle, they could be open to trading Camby for an expiring contract to get them out of the luxury tax. |
That's a little bit more plausible, but as you point out, they have no backup center. The Nuggets have three enormous contracts -- Iverson, Anthony, and Martin. Dumping Camby to save luxury tax dollars makes little sense when they would still have a huge payroll and would be unable to rebuild. If they go for a salary dump, it's more likely to be Iverson, who would have only one full year left on his contract at the trade deadline. Dumping Camby for expiring contracts would essentially be saying, "We can't win with this team, so we'll avoid the luxury tax and just be mediocre with a bunch of huge contracts." |
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Dennis_D
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| Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 6:48 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | Quote: | | Trading O'Neal for expiring contracts would tremendously improve the team's bottom line while better positioning the team for the future. |
How? By giving them cap space so they can overpay for free agents? The Pacers are not going to trade an all star caliber player for expiring contracts. |
With O'Neal, the Pacers aren't going to be bad enough to get a high enough draft pick to make a difference. They need to lose big for a while in order to rebuild. They are in an ugly spot and they don't really have any good options.
| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | Quote: | | If the Nuggets struggle, they could be open to trading Camby for an expiring contract to get them out of the luxury tax. |
That's a little bit more plausible, but as you point out, they have no backup center. The Nuggets have three enormous contracts -- Iverson, Anthony, and Martin. Dumping Camby to save luxury tax dollars makes little sense when they would still have a huge payroll and would be unable to rebuild. If they go for a salary dump, it's more likely to be Iverson, who would have only one full year left on his contract at the trade deadline. Dumping Camby for expiring contracts would essentially be saying, "We can't win with this team, so we'll avoid the luxury tax and just be mediocre with a bunch of huge contracts." |
I don't understand why Denver didn't buy out Martin's contract this off-season. The latest story I can find on Martin sounds like he is not going to contribute this year:
| Kenyon Martin wrote: | | Kenyon will be doing something on the court with this team. Whether it's just me going in and waving, I'm going to contribute in the first game of the season. I expect to play whether it's 10 minutes, two minutes - I expect to play. |
So if the Nuggets buy out Martin, trade away Camby and build around Carmelo and Nene, they could be under the cap by the '09 off-season.
Looking at the numbers, the Lakers could make an attractive offer for Iverson - Kwame, Vlad and Sasha. That would get the Nuggets out of the luxury tax. I just don't think any team is going to be interested in acquiring Iverson because he makes so much and hogs the ball so much.
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 9:28 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | I don't understand why Denver didn't buy out Martin's contract this off-season. |
This is speculation, but what the heck. KMart has about $59M to go on his contract. He must know that his future prospects are not very good. If I'm KMart, I'm not agreeing to a large discount on my contract. It might be the last sizable contract I ever get.
| Quote: | | So if the Nuggets buy out Martin, trade away Camby and build around Carmelo and Nene, they could be under the cap by the '09 off-season |
I believe you have to spread the buyout over the term of the contract, so Martin would still be on the books in '09, albeit at a lower price. |
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activeverb
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| Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 9:35 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | Quote: | | I don't understand why Denver didn't buy out Martin's contract this off-season. |
This is speculation, but what the heck. KMart has about $59M to go on his contract. He must know that his future prospects are not very good. If I'm KMart, I'm not agreeing to a large discount on my contract. It might be the last sizable contract I ever get. . |
I think some people don't understand that you can only buy out a contract if the player agrees to it. If I'm KMart, I might say, "OK, I'll let you buy out my contract. The price is the salary I'm owed minus the vet's minimum. So I'll let you buy out my $59 million contract for $55 million." |
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Dr. Laker
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| Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 9:37 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | I believe you have to spread the buyout over the term of the contract, so Martin would still be on the books in '09, albeit at a lower price. |
Why would K-Mart accept a buy-out?
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KobeDunk
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| Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 9:51 am Post subject: |
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| Kidd would have been nice at the deadline! Have you guys watched Team USA and how hes playing with Kobe? How about him averaging a triple double in the playoffs last season? Even at his age I would have done it right away, it would have turned the team around! By the way he's only 7 months older than Nash! |
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Dennis_D
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| Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 10:24 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | Quote: | | I don't understand why Denver didn't buy out Martin's contract this off-season. |
This is speculation, but what the heck. KMart has about $59M to go on his contract. He must know that his future prospects are not very good. If I'm KMart, I'm not agreeing to a large discount on my contract. It might be the last sizable contract I ever get. |
But if he accepts a buyout for 60% of the contract ($35.4M), he gets all $35.4M now instead the $59M spread over 4 years. He can then move on to another team and draw a second salary or start on his life away from basketball. 50-60% of contract value has been the range I have seen for contract buy outs.
| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | Quote: | | So if the Nuggets buy out Martin, trade away Camby and build around Carmelo and Nene, they could be under the cap by the '09 off-season |
I believe you have to spread the buyout over the term of the contract, so Martin would still be on the books in '09, albeit at a lower price. |
Iverson is gone then. Per HoopsHype, it looks like the only contracts they will have are Carmelo, Nene, Martin's buy out and Evans, with Kleiza as a RFA. That's $43.2M. They probably will have re-signed JR Smith for some amount.
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