If the fight were today, I think I'd have to go with Conor over Khabib.
I just re-watched the first round of the Eagle's fight against Michael Johnson and considering what happened there (along with what I can remember from Khabib's scrap with Raging Al), I'm coming to the conclusion that McG will similarly have some windows ajar to land his left early on. And, because of that, he's got a far better chance than what I previously thought of gaining control and then conducting the pace and distance of the fight.
Taking into account Khabib's chin, if Conor lands early but doesn't drop him, he will still stun him. And if that happens, he slows him. And it's at that point that McG will have a chance to pick Khabib apart with an assortment of hand and leg strikes. The latter of which, will put a serious hindrance on the ability for takedowns.
If Khabib can absorb the combination of strikes he'll have to eat to get his hands on Conor, then the story will most likely be altered but, he's going to absorb more than I previously thought he'd need to. So, what's impacting my thinking is 1) Khabib pulls his head back when his opponent throws a punch. Too easy for a master of distance like Conor to capitalize on. 2) The chances of Khabib succeeding on his first take down attempt (something he failed at successfully completing against Johnson) is highly unlikely, which means that the aforementioned "window" gets even wider and 3) each time the eagle throws a punch to create an opening to charge and clinch, the counter punches will be locked and loaded. Speed difference is going to be huge. Johnson was able to stun Khabib. Iaquinta was able to cause Khabib to take longer rests from the take down pressure and rate he normally imposes. That's a bad combination against the Irishman.
So, as of now, I have to go with Conor.
I agree with your pick. The reason I am using this time is that McGregor's superpower could trump Khabib's. Nurmagomedov is a monster and his superpower is overwhelming strength coupled with next level wrestling. Most people see Conor's as his potent and cobra quick left, but I think it is his fight IQ. I could easily be wrong, but that is where my brain is at this time around.
Conor's distance control is one of the best. One really underrated aspect of his is his reach. He's not Jon Jones level of freakishness but he's got the wingspan of a guy 6'2". _________________ KOBE
Can’t get past the line of thinking - Mcgregor has a chance in 1.5rounds, Khabib has the latter 3.5 rounds... Maybe Conor also finds a 2nd wind in the 4th or 5th and Khabib forgoes his gameplan for half a round...
so ultimately it’s pretty damn even
I lean slightly to Mcgregor. Diaz didn’t get wobbled in the 1st Mcgregor fight like Johnson wobbled Khabib....I’m guessing Khabib’s chin isn’t quite as strong as Diaz’...
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:27 am Post subject:
KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
Diaz didn’t get wobbled in the 1st Mcgregor fight like Johnson wobbled Khabib....I’m guessing Khabib’s chin isn’t quite as strong as Diaz’...
And there's the rub, my man. Nate was able to eat 3 rounds worth of Johnson strikes without so much as a flinch. And that was a 15-minute, back and forth striking affair. While Khabib does have a good chin, two things: 1) It's not otherworldly like Nate 2) He has never been hit like he will be by Conor. It's not just the power, it's not just the precision, it's not just the lightning strike quickness. It's all of the above and if Khabib starts to get hit with combinations, he's not going to see the one that gets him (a la Alavarez).
I'm not saying Khabib doesn't have a chance here. Not at all. I just think the the tactical aspects are in favor of McG. In order for Khabib to get his hands on Conor, I don't see a way that it comes quick or easy, especially given the control of distance, reach (JB), the IQ and octagon generalship (OLG) all working in favor of McGregor. _________________ We back.
Don’t forget too that the threat of a takedown changes the way you strike. See Till vs Woodley.
Not saying this fight will go like that as Woodley is a far better striker than Khabib, but bringing up the fact that if Conor is respecting the takedown it will take him out of his normal striking comfort zone.
If I were Khabib I would feint the first takedown just to see how mcgregor reacts. My next attempt would be a fake/pause/then go to see if I could get him to relax for half a sec then go for the takedown
I think each man has a pretty clear strength. For Conor he is a dangerous and precise striker, for Khabib his ground and pound is his strength.
If it goes to the floor, there is no doubt Khabib will win. Even the biggest Conor fan would probably know this.
If it stands up, you would assume Conor would have an advantage, but you wouldn't know that with much certainty as Khabib certinly isn't a liability on his feet.
I feel uncomfortable comparing anyone's chin to the Diaz brothers on the current roster, they're tough as hell. That being said, I don't think Khabib was a weak chin at all. To me, Khabib will win, I think he will eat a couple of shots on his way to a takedown, then once he gets it the fight will be shortly over. _________________ Lakers, Chargers, Dodgers, Arsenal FC.
I think each man has a pretty clear strength. For Conor he is a dangerous and precise striker, for Khabib his ground and pound is his strength.
If it goes to the floor, there is no doubt Khabib will win. Even the biggest Conor fan would probably know this.
If it stands up, you would assume Conor would have an advantage, but you wouldn't know that with much certainty as Khabib certinly isn't a liability on his feet.
I feel uncomfortable comparing anyone's chin to the Diaz brothers on the current roster, they're tough as hell. That being said, I don't think Khabib was a weak chin at all. To me, Khabib will win, I think he will eat a couple of shots on his way to a takedown, then once he gets it the fight will be shortly over.
Im hoping you’re right Mo as I have a friendly bet with my homie on it. For me to win that’s just what I need to happen.
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Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:02 am Post subject:
22 - Good point about the threat of a takedown. That being said, Till is a stalker while Conor is a counter-striker. Additionally T-Wood has that mad right hand to work with and, in general, has very underrated boxing skills overall. And, unlike the striker vs. wrestler narrative in that fight, in this one, the speed difference is going to be hugely in favor of the striker.
I mean, that small space, nearly-not-visible-to-the-naked-eye counter that McG landed on Aldo was some straight Money May ish. I mean, that has to be one of the most impressive strikes in MMA history. Roy Jones would be proud. Keep in mind, that Aldo does not exactly operate in molasses mode. These are the things that I can't ignore.
Mo - Always respect your takes. For me, it's not that Khabib's chin is weak so much as it is that he got rocked by Johnson. And I can't help but imagine that if Conor stuns hims similarly, there's going to be more strikes coming and landing, with much more control and accuracy than what Johnson was able to get off.
If/when Khabib gets Conor on the floor, I have to agree with you, it's all she wrote. That is, unless it's in the last half minute of the round. It's just the closing the distance part that I think is where this fight will be won or lost. and, as of now, I think that favors Conor. _________________ We back.
Super excited that Bones is back, for my money he is the GOAT. Can’t really see DC wanting to fight him at LHW again, but perhaps DC would feel a bit more comfortable fighting at heavyweight. Then Jones can go and retire him.
Gimme_the_rock I definitely agree that Conor has a level of precision and crispness in his strikes that nobody else in that division can rival. He’s well capable of putting Khabib down, but the key like you say is how he controls the distance. I think Khabib’s ability to close that distance quickly is underrated, he’s quite explosive and has a lot of power. For Conor he will want to control distance and keep picking him off on the way in, or even better draw him into a a stand up fight.
The contrasting styles and all the hype that will build it up should make for great viewing come fight time. _________________ Lakers, Chargers, Dodgers, Arsenal FC.
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Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:58 pm Post subject:
He's working up a lather and screaming a promotion about his whiskey. It's a spectacle and the worst press conference showing of his career. _________________ We back.
Clearly none of the political/family stuff got Khabib bent out of shape like Conor wanted.
I think we might see Conor attack his religion next if he gets desperate enough. But I’m not sure that’s a line Conor is willing to cross. Even Colby would think twice before that hahah
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Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2018 3:02 pm Post subject:
I’ve had my suspicions but after the bus attack and this press conference, I honestly think Conor’s snorting. I can see him in the car ride there, with his $80,000 platinum and diamond laced snuff box prepping for the hype, getting all jacked up like he’s a blue-stripe-across-the-face sporting William Wallace. _________________ We back.
I’ve had my suspicions but after the bus attack and this press conference, I honestly think Conor’s snorting. I can see him in the car ride there, with his $80,000 platinum and diamond laced snuff box prepping for the hype, getting all jacked up like he’s a blue-stripe-across-the-face sporting William Wallace.
Very true!! And i think it was just released that bones has been back on the stuff too even during this last suspension
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Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:18 am Post subject:
The press conference is getting such mixed and hostile reviews. When it comes to civil discourse, the online MMA community leaves a lot to be desired. Well, maybe that’s just every online community in general, regardless of the subject being broached.
I’ve had a couple days to consider now and I think (as JB pointed out to me) the absence of a crowd made it sound and feel really awkward. Conor is also a man that plays off the crowd. He’s been a pretty candid guy in the interviews following his last two defeats but I think his first answer regarding the crowd not being allowed in may have been one of his most vulnerable statements. He needs the masses. And not just to sound wittier and funnier than he actually is, but rather to reciprocate the energy and to fuel him. Additionally, he’s tremendously emotional about this fight (understatement of the decade, right?) and was basically outside of himself. Trust me, the inner Conor was hurling a thousand dollies against a fleet of buses in his heart and mind the whole time.
Also, Khabib was calm in comparison but wasn’t completely unflapped. Tony Ferguson was able to get a rise out of Khabib but it was quick and subtle. That is most likely his Russian roots working together with the persona that he wants to put on display. The video 22 posted did show Khabib stop just short of center for the faceoff. That’s most likely because Conor was so erratic and drinking whiskey, Khabib probably didn’t want to get too close to Conor. But even still, the Eagle was being measured (at best) or cautious (at worst). And the only way that happens is because Conor’s behavior affected Khabib.
Those things being noted, Conor did lay out his least entertaining press conference since I’ve been watching. And it was easily his least potent. It wasn’t impotent but it wasn’t impactful. And that’s why it’s raising doubt. I think that press conference may show some tells but the fight is still the fight and it’s going to happen. My thoughts are simply, whatever Conor was trying to do, didn’t happen. Back to Sqaure One. If anyone thought Conor would create an edge for himself, I don’t know why. And that’s not a big deal, his schtick had no effect on Nate Diaz in win or loss. Square One.
But I still think Conor is most likely on the devil’s dust and that, tactically, the fight still favors him.
I just don’t think the press conference was the some great tell all. But it will almost certainly become so after the fight. If Conor wins, it’s “He got inside Khabib’s head and broke him.” If Khabib wins? “Once Conor knew he couldn’t get inside Khabib’s head, he became desperate, scared and was looking for a way out.”
Maybe it’s because I think Conor was drunk and dusted up that it’s too hard for me to spot the nuance I normally try to. One thing is certain for me, it was a spectacle but not in a good way. Still though, it’s nothing gained or lost from either fighter in terms of the fight, IMO. Just some lost steam off Conor’s mental warfare persona. And even if so, meh. _________________ We back.
The press conference was entertaining in a sad kinda way. Usually Conor's insults have some levity behind them. This time it seemed very personal and it showed pretty clearly. He looked angry and nervous. He did get a rise out of Khabib with all the personal insults but Khabib overall was calm and level headed. 2018 Conor is not the same Conor from years ago, looks like all that Mayweather money changed him (for the worse).
Regardless, none of that will have any effect on the fight. I think Conor has a great chance to spark the Eagle in the first round. This is a dangerous fight for Khabib. He has a sloppy standup game, and when he shoots for the legs he's going to leave his head exposed. Conor's precision is too good. Although I don't agree with everyone else, I think his chin is solid. MJ didn't really rock him if you watch the video. Barboza connected on a spinning back kick to the head and Khabib walked right through it. The same kick put Kevin Lee on goofy street.
I say its 55-45 fight for Khabib. Chad Mendez took Conor down at will so if he hasn't improved his takedown defense, it's going to be a long long night for the notorious one.
The press conference was entertaining in a sad kinda way. Usually Conor's insults have some levity behind them. This time it seemed very personal and it showed pretty clearly. He looked angry and nervous. He did get a rise out of Khabib with all the personal insults but Khabib overall was calm and level headed. 2018 Conor is not the same Conor from years ago, looks like all that Mayweather money changed him (for the worse).
Regardless, none of that will have any effect on the fight. I think Conor has a great chance to spark the Eagle in the first round. This is a dangerous fight for Khabib. He has a sloppy standup game, and when he shoots for the legs he's going to leave his head exposed. Conor's precision is too good. Although I don't agree with everyone else, I think his chin is solid. MJ didn't really rock him if you watch the video. Barboza connected on a spinning back kick to the head and Khabib walked right through it. The same kick put Kevin Lee on goofy street.
I say its 55-45 fight for Khabib. Chad Mendez took Conor down at will so if he hasn't improved his takedown defense, it's going to be a long long night for the notorious one.
re: Chad Mendez taking Conor down at will.
Not to suggest that Conor is this sprawling master but he 100% had a torn ACL going into that fight. He's probably the ONLY fighter on the roster that will go in each and every time even with what's normally considered major injuries. There's even a video of how he met Arnold Governator. Arnold's physical therapist helped Conor with that ACL. Chad would have gotten completely ass-(bleep) otherwise imo (and it's not just my opinion). Eddy Alvarez in his few take down attempts was completely stuffed.
That being said, I still think if Khabib gets his hands on Conor it won't be pretty. That's a big if. _________________ KOBE
On a complete tangent, is it just me but is the buildup for this fight completely uninspiring? I keep having to remind myself it's happening in TWO WEEKS! _________________ KOBE
^^^ that's true. I think John Kavanaugh actually told him before the fight to not defend the takedowns because of the torn ACL. And he did pretty well defending Nate Diaz's takedowns as well.
I wouldn't be surprised if Khabib will have trouble getting Conor to the ground, but we'll see.
^^^ that's true. I think John Kavanaugh actually told him before the fight to not defend the takedowns because of the torn ACL. And he did pretty well defending Nate Diaz's takedowns as well.
I wouldn't be surprised if Khabib will have trouble getting Conor to the ground, but we'll see.
I hate to sound like such a Conor-stan but I really need him to win. He brings this fun/magic to the UFC. At least prior to the Floyd fight that's for sure. We'll see but I'm afraid that $ might have truly changed the guy. _________________ KOBE
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