Underestimating this year's team

davidse · Franchise Player Joined: 03 Jul 2005 Posts: 14302

post and pivot - i have no idea what your'e talking about.

ALL i was talking about - (and please go back and read), it the laker bench.
that's it.

why do you come up with complete team analysis, and different arguments that have nothing to do with the bench ?

very strange post.

and barbosa has started for the suns the entire season 2 years ago.
that by itself makes him much much better than smush who barely had any playing time in this league.

Wildchild027 · Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:23 am Post subject:

lakersfan4life69 · Star Player Joined: 21 Nov 2003 Posts: 2327

i can't paint a rosy picutre on this team. the lakers will have kobe, odom, a backup type center, a current no. 1 bust, and an aging if not washed up veteran in their starting five. excuse me if i'm not optimistic. their bench doen't have one threat. the lakers have been hit by bad luck too. turiaf, the one guy i thought could contribute out of last year's draft and looked to be a steal, had open heart surgery. bynum is years away. the lakers have to hope kwame brown has a jermaine o'neal type breakout this year. then, they might be a legitmite team. if phil jackson gets this team to play defense and play over their heads, they'll win 40-42 games. that still won't get them a playoff spot. i think 2007 is about right. probably be the next time this team makes the playoffs.

wolfpaclaker · Retired Number Joined: 29 May 2002 Posts: 58344

Sky - What do you think of the Lakers chances if they are able to develop their two prize forwards?

Odom - Has a career year (I'm thinking it's somewhat realistic to assume this since he's going to have his best coach and the one that probably values him the most) with 19/7/5/1.5/1.0 numbers

Kwame - Has a career year (Big whoop considering he's going to be asked top 10 and 7) but more of a solid PF that can give 12/8 a game.

My expectations were based on last year's play. Based on that, i can't expect the team do that well. However if improvements are made within Kwame and Odom - can we expect a 5th or 4th seed? I think there's a good chance we can achieve that seed IF both Kwame and Odom step up.

Thoughts?

Panthera · Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:36 am Post subject:

LakerLogic · Franchise Player Joined: 27 Mar 2005 Posts: 17886

Sky · Star Player Joined: 15 Apr 2001 Posts: 9830 Location: Up

Even if Kwame and Odom play to the level you've outlined Wolf I don't see the Lakers getting higher than a 6 seed.

Division winners in the west look like San Antonio, Phoenix and Denver. Then Dallas and Houston appear to be the next tier. I don't see the Lakers cracking that top 5 regardless.

From 6-8 it's a crapshoot. Nate in Portland will revive them. Minnesota just went through addition by subtraction with Spree and Sam. The Warriors played .667 ball in their final 30 games and added a great pick in Diogu. Clips were banged up last year and have a lot of talent. Sonics learned how to win last year. Sac still has some ability, Utah has talent, so does Memphis. Most of those teams will be right there with the Lakers all year long.

6-8 is imo going to come down to who plays well on the road. If Mihm is the starting center, road wins won't come easy. My hope is they can swing a deal to get Lorenzen Wright to offset Mihm's inconsistency. At the point, I don't see what they can do in trade and I've always hated Pargo's game and pray that doesn't happen. Smush is going to have to rise to the challenge and McKie is going to have to stay healthy.

I'm not worried about Odom and Kwame, I think they will perform (though your ppg for Odom seems too high). My worries are threefold:

1. Point guard - McKie will likely have injury trouble and can't go high minutes, so Smush will have to step up BIG.

2. Mihm's inconsistency - He has to become a consistent anchor and their leading rebounder, may be asking too much of him.

3. Lack of quality depth - Big dropoff in talent from the starters to the bench.

What they do from now to opening night will imo determine whether they can lead the 6-8 pack or face a yearlong struggle among the nine teams vying for three spots. Add Wright and I feel much better about their chances. Find a way to get a quality starting 1 and I'd put them as a solid 6 seed. Fail to do so, or only add Pargo, and I think they will be at 7 or 8 all year and at risk of going lottery but losing the pick.

davidse · Franchise Player Joined: 03 Jul 2005 Posts: 14302

i agree completely sky.
right now - IF everything clicks - and i mean everything - no. 6 is as high as we can go.
not good enough for the best case scenario.

KingKobeDubbz · Starting Rotation Joined: 09 Jun 2005 Posts: 734

I mean seriously this years team isn't too much of an improvement .Besides Phil coming back and his descision to move Lamar to his natural position at the small forward . That is pretty much all it has to offer. We got Aaron Mckie which is a plus. Got a kid in draft known as Andruw Bynum who has problems getting low post position and we hired Kareem as big man coach. Will just have to see how this tale will turn. I'm not saying that they won't make playoffs , it's just beyond that which bewilders me.

wolfpaclaker · Retired Number Joined: 29 May 2002 Posts: 58344

Yes many of those are my concerns too. I can't believe you and me actually agree on so much of the same things in regards to this current team and where they would stand but it's what i feel to.

I am hoping that they can get Wright or Cato or Bender + Pollard through deals. Any 1 of those trades would help the team and give them a 3 bigman rotation they desperately need.

Guards - i think you are right it will be Mckie/Parker getting the majority of the minutes which is a big improvement from last season defensively, but a regress in offense. Hopefully Mckie and Parker are somewhat consistent in their spot up roles as apparently Mckie had no legs left last year according to some.

DrDoom · Starting Rotation Joined: 20 Aug 2005 Posts: 505

Well another way to look at this is too objectively look at the other teams. The way I see it now, the Spurs are a LOCK for the West Top Seeds. They stood pat with their team, have a core that has been together 4 years now and added a decent backup big in Fabricio. Next up in the Pacific is the Suns. They have no doubt taken a step back. But they will still be a high flying - high scoring team. Everyone knows this doesn't win championships, but as evidenced by the Kings and Mavs the past 5 years, it does win regular season games. The Kings, like the pistons have a terrific starting 5, but will not overtake the Suns: Phoenix at #2. That leaves The Nugs at #3. The Sonics took a step back, and remember after Karl came to the rescue the Nuggs had EASILY the best record in the league. Now it won't be long before Karl blows it up, but even if someone else wins this division, in the end it doesn't matter to our playoff seeding.

SO we got...

1) Spurs

2) Phoenix

3) Nuggs

AFter this you know the Mavs and Houston are going to be 4-5 again (though it may flip-flop). These texas teams are regular season warriors and the Mavs almost stole the south from the spurs last year, expect Houston to keep pace. This though, I can GUARANTEE (along with the Spurs and Phoenix) as a lock.

4) Houston or Mavs

5) Dallas or Rockets

Now it is likely going to be Sacramento or the SOnics. Seattle has taken a hit this offseason, but shouldn't fall too far off their pace. The Kings meanwhile, have an AS pg in Bibby, an AS SF in Peja, AS center in Miller, an AS PF in Rahim, and a serviceable sg in Wells. The Kings won without Chris Webber all the time during the regular season in the past and I see no difference why it will change this year.

6) Kings

7) Seattle

So now we come to the Lakers. This 8th seed is going to be up for grabs. LA, Memphis, Minny, the Clips, Utah and GS are all going to be fighting for it. Expect the magic number to be even higher next year for this spot. I am thinking instead of 45 it maybe more like 47 wins necessary to grab this.

IF the Lakers can grab the 8th seed and make the po's (even if they are immediately gone) that would be considered a HUGE turnaround. From a 34 win team to a 47 win team in one season is a significant stride for any franchise. But expecting to get the 3-6 seed is just a bit unreasonable. Those are most likely 50+ win teams, and while people have pointed out that the Lakers could compete with the best in the buis last year, they forget to mention some of the losses to the worst. LA will have to maintain the focus that some of these other regular season warrior squads are known for. The lakers are no longer a "flip the switch" type team. They are going to have to battle for every single W this season.

If they do that and make the playoffs, than I believe it should be considered a succefull season for Kobe, the Franchise and Phil.

Doom

wolfpaclaker · Retired Number Joined: 29 May 2002 Posts: 58344

Honestly i'm not that convinced of the Mavs and Sonics. Both teams have some serious weaknesses.

I could see them fall into the 6-7 range.

THE_SHOES · Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:34 pm Post subject:

Star · Star Player Joined: 01 Aug 2004 Posts: 1564

THE_SHOES · Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:42 pm Post subject:

DrDoom · Starting Rotation Joined: 20 Aug 2005 Posts: 505

re4ee · Franchise Player Joined: 07 Mar 2005 Posts: 12237

TrueLakerman · Star Player Joined: 11 Apr 2001 Posts: 2811

Right now with the exception of Kobe this team is nothing but inconsistant group.

Odom- Can he play with the consistancy we expect of him. Be a 18-20 ppg, 10rpg guy we expect of him without getting into foul trouble? Without injuries?
Answer: ?????????

Kwame Brown- Can he be the player he was expected to be. At least a 12-15 ppg, 10 rpg PF? What proof do we have that he will be a very good player.
Answer: ?????????

Chris Mihm- Can he be the consistant player on a night to night basis, and still be able to participate in the game in 4th quarters and outside of Staples?
Answer: ????????? I tend to think not.

Mackie or PG- can they get productive minutes without injury out of him at 33 against top tier pg's.
Answer: ??????????

Bench- can they come up with at least 15-20 ppg on those nights when starters are in foul trouble or injured.
Answer: Well lets look at each player, Slava=????, Devean George=????
JJ= good player, Wafer=?????, Walton: minimal expectancy. Smush Parker: ??????? . Vlade- will he even play??? Cook- anything else but shoot threes in this year's version of cook (ie. defense, rebounding etc.)-???????
Ohhh let's not forget our excellent backup pg- Sasha Vujacic

Can Phil Jackson make something out of nothing for the first time in his career. Answer:??????????

2005-2006 Los Angeles Lakers chances of making playoffs=??????????
Kobe will be fabulous as always although I expect a better FG%. If he shoot like the crap he did last year then major frustration sets in when the teams other players' cannot respond taking up the slack.

Sky may worry about Mihm but I worry about everyone else on that team with exception of Kobe. We all hope all those ????? +/- turn into all +'s but is that mathematical reality?
I hope the team makes a total fool out of me, however how it is constructed it is still very weak and unbalanced in comparison to the rest of the league.

People if you don't think we're not in trouble then something good is in that pipe and I need it.

MadLaker · Starting Rotation Joined: 02 Sep 2004 Posts: 373

Where are all these Dallas and Sacto hating coming from? They're still great teams packing loads of quality players. Just because they lost some players that have been in their past sucess doesnt mean they've taken a huge step back. It's monstrous that some of you think they're suddenly fighting for a playoff spot now.

While I certainly do not see a huge improvement this season coming, I do have a reasonable hope for the playoffs. I think it'll be a dog fight for the 7-8th seed with us and a few others.

record wise

1.sa
2.phoe
3-5: den, dallas, houst no particular order
6.sacto
7-8: rest~

lakers0505 · Franchise Player Joined: 23 Jun 2005 Posts: 10701

One thing that worries me though is lamar odom, he;s had trouble staying healthy so far in his career, when we aquired him i realized that but hoped after a healthy year in miami that was in the past, but he went down again, I'll be it a shoulder, which i'de actually take over him spraining one of his ankles again.. if lamar is healthy i think we have a chanve, because it wasnt a concidence our late free fall started when odom got knocked out.

Charles · Star Player Joined: 22 Sep 2004 Posts: 4525

The 2 and the 3 are the only positions on this team I feel safe at.

Our starting bigmen are inconsistent. Our back-up bigmen are horrible.

Our starting PG averaged 2ppg last year, is up there in age, and has injury concerns. Our back-up PG is nice, but the NBA is a different monster than the SPL and we still lack a starting caliber 1.

Star · Star Player Joined: 01 Aug 2004 Posts: 1564

JuiceMonkey · Star Player Joined: 14 Apr 2005 Posts: 1169

i love the optimism around here...honestly i think people are underestimating the fact that kwame brown makes everyone else play their position so much easier than last year. and aaron mckie helps the bigs play their position. look, phil jackson asked for a long athletic team and he got exactly what he requested in his starting 5. is the bench any good? definitely not but all we really need is this backup 4/5 banger(thats if smush is as good and fast as everyone says) and we're all set. Phil has the team he asked for and a training camp to implement the wild defensive schemes he was planning to, not to mention the triangle offense w/ lamar odom being his main ballhandler and kobe his backside scorer. does nobody remember the countless close games the lakers played against playoff-bound teams. we continually ended up on the losing side of these games despite having hte best closer in basketball. Unless last year wasnt a fluke, many of these games will fall into our column this year under phil and with kobe. we do have some critical "ifs" about this team but if a few of them go our way, this team will do much better than some of u are saying.

LakerLanny · Retired Number Joined: 24 Oct 2001 Posts: 47581

Underestimating this Lakers team?

I think a lot of people here are overestimating this Lakers team.

I hope Phil Jackson is the magic answer and I am proven wrong, but this team has little defense, an awful bench, no shooting, no PG and three reaches in the starting lineup alone.

Either Phil Jackson needs to be a magician, Kobe needs to clone himself or a big trade needs to happen. The dead weight (Vujacic, Walton, Medvedenko) must be cleared at some point so some players who can potentially produce may be brought in.
_________________
Love, Laker Lanny

Kobina returns · Starting Rotation Joined: 04 Mar 2005 Posts: 701

I think our bench is not that bad.

Slava can get you 8ppg 5pg in 21minutes(I think if the roster stays he will get more playing time, with B Grant gone. He put up these same numbers under Phil)
Cook can spread the defense and hit the 3pointers when needed.
George will get you 7ppg off the bench.
Jones can give you energy and get you 6ppg 5rpg off the bench.
Sasha can make open 3s when Kobe, Odom or Brown is doubled in the post. He's a pretty good pure shooter and can give you production. I see Phil using Sasha as the backup pg to Mckie.
Waffer is a rookie but he has the ability to score 10-20pts on any given night when Lakers offense is struggling.
Bynum will get you maybe 4pts and 4rebs and some presence in the paint in some games when they need a big man to step up.
Walton will facilitate the passing and get you easy baskets.

The bench may not be the best in the NBA but they have their uses. The starting lineup is slated to do most of the work but our bench can provide some assistance when needed.