NBA Draft Lottery History (6th worst record has gotten top 3 pick 21% of the time)

 
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LALdynasty!
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 08, 2014 10:03 pm    Post subject: NBA Draft Lottery History (6th worst record has gotten top 3 pick 21% of the time)

The weighted draft lottery started in 1990, so this year will be the 25th year it's done by this method. I created a couple little charts to show how frequently each record from worst record to 14th worst attained a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick. I also show the total number of Top 3 picks and the percentage of frequency of attaining those picks based on 24 years worth of history.


Reading the top line of top chart: The team with the worst record in the league has gotten the 1st pick 3 times (13% of the time), 2nd pick 8 times (33%), and 3rd pick 6 times (25%) for a total of 17 top 3 picks (71%).

Reading the top line of the bottom chart: In 2013 the 1st pick went to the 3rd worst record, the 2nd pick to the 1st worst record, and the 3rd pick to the 8th worst record.

Hope that makes sense. I didn't label the charts very well. Not the most useful info, but fun to look at.

CHARTS


Last edited by LALdynasty! on Wed Apr 09, 2014 5:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Romano338
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 08, 2014 10:08 pm    Post subject:

24 drafts and the worst record only had the #1 3 times
Last time in 2004!

Pretty crazy considering the worst record is supposed to have more chances of having the 1st pick.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 8:44 pm    Post subject: Re: NBA Draft Lottery History (6th worst record has gotten top 3 pick 21% of the time)

LALdynasty! wrote:
The weighted draft lottery started in 1990, so this year will be the 25th year it's done by this method. I created a couple little charts to show how frequently each record from worst record to 14th worst attained a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick. I also show the total number of Top 3 picks and the percentage of frequency of attaining those picks based on 24 years worth of history.


Reading the top line of top chart: The team with the worst record in the league has gotten the 1st pick 3 times (13% of the time), 2nd pick 8 times (33%), and 3rd pick 6 times (25%) for a total of 17 top 3 picks (71%).

Reading the top line of the bottom chart: In 2013 the 1st pick went to the 3rd worst record, the 2nd pick to the 1st worst record, and the 3rd pick to the 8th worst record.

Hope that makes sense. I didn't label the charts very well. Not the most useful info, but fun to look at.

CHARTS



The chart provides the info I was looking for but couldn't find elsewhere. Thanks! Very helpful.
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lakerfanatic
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:28 am    Post subject:

Great info. With these odds, we still have a good chance at a top five pick but I think the FO should explore trading the pick for established talent (Irving/Love) or trade down for multiple first rounders (PHX). If this is a deep draft, we should be able to rebuild quicker with multiple picks and keep cap hits low for awhile.
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LALdynasty!
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:41 pm    Post subject:

Remember that with the 6th worst record in the league, the only picks we could possibly end up with are the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th.
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non-player zealot
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:44 pm    Post subject:

Romano338 wrote:
24 drafts and the worst record only had the #1 3 times
Last time in 2004!

Pretty crazy considering the worst record is supposed to have more chances of having the 1st pick.


88/9, 89/90 and 95/6 - an expansion team had the league's worst record and none were eligible for the 1st pick.

Could have been anywhere from 3 to 6 times, but rules prevented expansion teams from being eligible for the 1st pick until the draft preceding their second season, regardless of their records. The four new teams from 1988-89 and 1989-90 were actually assigned the 4th and 5th picks by the league in their first drafts. It appears the same thing was in order for the two 1995-96 teams, but they wound up with picks 2 and 3. The Bobcats had the 2nd pick in the 2004 Draft (the Summer before their first season) but they traded for it. In their first season (2004-05), the Cats didn't finish with the worst record, believe it or not, so they don't apply.

The format of the draws has changed over time. In 93, ORL was the best team in the lottery and they got the 1st pick with only 1 ball in the drum, but there were only 66 total back then. Beating the same 1.5% chance in a 5/333 or 10/666 draw perhaps might've appeared a bit more impressive.
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Fan0Bynum17
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:56 am    Post subject:

Statistically irrelevant.
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purple45
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2015 4:16 am    Post subject:

The Bobcats had the 2nd pick in the 2004 Draft (the Summer before their first season) but they traded for it. In their first season (2004-05), the Cats didn't finish with the worst record, believe it or not, so they don't apply. ??
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LakerDYnasty72
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2015 2:53 pm    Post subject:

Called irrelevant by some, and fun by others. For me? Fun! Thanks OP
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