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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:59 pm    Post subject:

Tankathon!

1) CHA - Cade (ugh, this would be so awesome)
2) ORL - Mobley
3) OKC - Green
4) DET - Suggs
5) OKC - Kuminga
6) CLE - K. Johnson
7) GSW - Giddey
8) TOR - Springer
9) ORL - Moody
10) SAC - Prkacin
11) NOP - Franz Wagner
12) SAS - J. Johnson
13) IND - Cooper
14) GSW - Z. Williams
15) WAS - K. Jones
16) BOS - Barnes
17) MEM - Vrenz B.
18) HOU - Garuba
19) NYK - Kispert
20) ATL - Bouknight
21) NYK - Mann
22) LAL - Sengun
23) HOU - Christopher
24) HOU - Thor
25) LAC - Butler
26) DEN - Champagnie
27) BKN - I. Jackson
28) PHI - Duarte
29) PHO - Bones
30) UTA - Mitchell
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:51 pm    Post subject:

Davion Mitchell had a 20% usage rate at 22 years of age?!??

You're drafting this old role-player in the lottery!!!!???

There is nothing about Mitchell that pops in his stats or on tape outside of his defense, which means bupkis when discussing a 6'2 guard in the pros.

If Mitchell is a lottery pick, Jared Butler should be a threat to crack the top five.
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Mark10 45
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:05 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Davion Mitchell had a 20% usage rate at 22 years of age?!??

You're drafting this old role-player in the lottery!!!!???

There is nothing about Mitchell that pops in his stats or on tape outside of his defense, which means bupkis when discussing a 6'2 guard in the pros.

If Mitchell is a lottery pick, Jared Butler should be a threat to crack the top five.


not too dissimilar from Isaiah Thomas coming out of UW - his usage was 26% and he was on a much worse team, if they had close to the talent of Baylor - Thomas' usage% would have been Mitchell level. IT was 22 coming out - as he went to an extra year of HS prep
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:20 am    Post subject:

Mark10 45 wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Davion Mitchell had a 20% usage rate at 22 years of age?!??

You're drafting this old role-player in the lottery!!!!???

There is nothing about Mitchell that pops in his stats or on tape outside of his defense, which means bupkis when discussing a 6'2 guard in the pros.

If Mitchell is a lottery pick, Jared Butler should be a threat to crack the top five.


not too dissimilar from Isaiah Thomas coming out of UW - his usage was 26% and he was on a much worse team, if they had close to the talent of Baylor - Thomas' usage% would have been Mitchell level. IT was 22 coming out - as he went to an extra year of HS prep

That's a sizeable difference in usage - basically the gap between Mitchell and Jared Butler, or role-player and star responsibility. And the Lorenzo Romar era Huskies often had more talent than these Mitchell-Butler Baylor teams, Romar was just a mediocre coach.

The wingspan isn't there, he's small, he's not a special athlete, he doesn't get to the line, he's third in usage on his college team as a 22-year-old projected lead guard, and he's not an especially notable playmaker. Almost everything in his lotto evaluation is baked into his (medium-ish volume) 3pt shooting over his past 30 games not being a "Kuzma 2017" hot streak (so help me, 66% career FT shooting) and that MaCio Boston was stealing his shots.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:39 am    Post subject:

Overrated by far. There's a scouting vid of his weaknesses too, and it just makes it so much easier to see his floor level of play as a role player.

Good? Sure. A guy you want to increase USG on and be a shot creator? No.

Butler FTW.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:39 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
I know they never seem to be able to, but maybe Douggie can???


I don't see how he's that much different from the others, outside of some off ball cuts.

He's not some dynamic ball handler, and he's a negative defender.


His defense could improve some under Vogel possibly and he just seems to be a guy whose shot is so repeatable. Maybe that would be enough to escape the Lakers shooters curse🙏🏻
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:46 am    Post subject:

lakerfanaticPT wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
I know they never seem to be able to, but maybe Douggie can???


I don't see how he's that much different from the others, outside of some off ball cuts.

He's not some dynamic ball handler, and he's a negative defender.


His defense could improve some under Vogel possibly and he just seems to be a guy whose shot is so repeatable. Maybe that would be enough to escape the Lakers shooters curse🙏🏻


Granted, limited time, but it didn't work for Drummond, McLeMore, THT just yet either.

I'd rather pass on McDermott.

Oddly enough you may be better off just paying Dwight that money.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:54 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
lakerfanaticPT wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
I know they never seem to be able to, but maybe Douggie can???


I don't see how he's that much different from the others, outside of some off ball cuts.

He's not some dynamic ball handler, and he's a negative defender.


His defense could improve some under Vogel possibly and he just seems to be a guy whose shot is so repeatable. Maybe that would be enough to escape the Lakers shooters curse🙏🏻


Granted, limited time, but it didn't work for Drummond, McLeMore, THT just yet either.

I'd rather pass on McDermott.

Oddly enough you may be better off just paying Dwight that money.


If we get Dwight, I would think it would be on a minimum and Drummond walks. Would have 6 mil to spend but not enough for Douggie. Pacers would need to sign and trade him for either Kuz or KCP for us to get him. Maybe we should just try a d trade for Harrison Barnes and use the 6 mil on a shooter in that money range?
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:57 am    Post subject:

I doubt NBA players are so willing to accept the vet min. You'd think he'd want a raise, don't you?

Anyway, this has already derailed a draft chat.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:18 am    Post subject:

My thing about this draft is: outside of the top 4 - there's so many players with major red flags.. probably 90% of the next consensus 15 players have real red flags.
I still like the idea of these players as prospects, this is a decent year even outside of the top 4.. I think it's better than 2016 & 17...
but it's not lost on me how up in the air major facets of their games are..
the players who are sure-things to be good players, I'm placing them high even if they're super old.

Some of these prospects with super broke jumpers - Keon and Jalen Johnson... Specifically Keon, I kinda doubt he's ever going to be a solid shooter, what do you guys think?
Sure we see a lot of players improve their shots - that's always the company line of the convo... and I agree, we see more of that today - but we also still see a lot of better looking forms than Keon, continue to struggle.
Troy Brown Jr, I'd love to see him be able to shoot but he shot 31% again; and he has a form that Keon will have to work 5 years to get.

With Keon, we're not talking about a college D.Fox or Sexton type of bad jump-shot, there's a lot of those in this draft, and I am decently optimistic with those..
But what do we do with Keon? Guys who had super broke forms out of college, or early in their NBA career like J.Winslow, Josh Jackson - it hasn't gotten better.. Ntilikina, Zhiare Smith, E.Payton.. so many lotto picks..
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:00 pm    Post subject:

@Mike


Sengun - we've all seen the lowlights of him in the P&R on his scouting report. Here's another play demonstrating his movement pattern vs Croatia and Roko.
Look at the backpeddle/and him turn his hips - and then the same clunkiness defending the drive... he's not a PF..


People are saying because he has pretty mobile dribble moves, this portends well for his P&R coverage on the other end - but look at earlier career Demarcus Cousins - that translation isn't always 1:1. He moves more like Demarcus than D. Sabonis. He has really heavy legs on those P&R coverages. I don't see Sabonis

I think his 6'9 height is without shoes (Drummond is 6'10 now) ; some places list this kid at 6'10
A height check of Sengun next to Roko. lined up at the FT line - they defended eachother this game. Sengun has an inch on him


here's Roko's strength moving Sengun on the far corner. Roko is going to be able to play small ball 5 one day. Not the most confident handle this game, but decent - he mishandled and did a crossover against Sengun on the same play.
These country vs country games are the best indicator of where a young player is day1 when he steps onto the NBA.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:59 pm    Post subject:

On Vecenie's recent Game Theory Podcast, he claims that he expects Miles "Deuce" McBride to be the biggest riser during the draft process after a closer look at his film. He noted that in his next Big Board release (Version 4), he will have McBride listed around #20.....up from #32 on his last release.

Vecenie specifically pointed out that he now has McBride ahead of Jaden Springer and Sharife Cooper. Finally, an interesting thing he noted is he no longer considers McBride a combo guard, and now considers him a clear PG....and he focused on how much better of a distributor McBride became after Oscar Tshiebwe left WVU and the offense changed to a 4 out motion offense.

I know of a team that will be drafting in that range who could use an athletic, explosive, and defensive minded PG with a solid shot!

Miles McBride Highlights (2020 - 2021) WVU Men’s Basketball
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:09 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
On Vecenie's recent- He noted that in his next Big Board release (Version 4), he will have McBride listed around #20.....up from #32 on his last release.

an interesting thing he noted is he no longer considers McBride a combo guard, and now considers him a clear PG....and he focused on how much better of a distributor McBride became after Oscar Tshiebwe left WVU and the offense changed to a 4 out motion offense.



Ya from what I saw, that was a potential upside outcome for him - being more PG than SG on the combo guard scale - that's a potential outcome for him.
He does some good scoring stuff in the P&R above the FT line - can get into nice midrange Js. Although he's had nightmarish games in the midrange in closer around like 12ft, and I think this says someting about his form... So I see the upside and P&R potential.. but I don't completely buy him being good enough in the midrange - but he has a chance.
and I want to see the passing.
I could rank him as high as the late teens.
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 12, 2021 5:12 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
I doubt NBA players are so willing to accept the vet min. You'd think he'd want a raise, don't you?

Anyway, this has already derailed a draft chat.


okay, back to the draft:))
McBride or Duarte at 22......or do we swing for the fences with Vrenz??

Also Zaire seems to be slipping in mocks......what do you think of him at 22?
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:36 pm    Post subject:

I haven’t seen Mcbride’s Synergy/%s by shot type ... but in January vs Texas Tech and Okstate - he started those games a combined 1-9 in the short midrange, with solid looks - these pretty open misses have me hesitant about his jumper form translating really well to both perimeter levels. I heard on the commentary that he’s good in the midrange - and I’ve seen some nice shots+decisions there in highlights. Off the dribble he 90% of the time jumps high on his J, but catch and shoot it’s a set shot. His set shot looks like Wes Mathews form.
I think he’ll be a solid shooter in the league - but, good enough to be a lead handler and hurt you consistently on pull-ups in midrange? Idk; it’d be a huge boon in his game because he hunts that area in the P&R well, like a PG.
I’d guess in the league he’s a guy who fluctuates from 37% 3s one year and 34.5% the next - kinda inconsistent but solid/capable.
His ceiling is high; small chance to end up a 3rd best player on a contender, if these ball handler skills&shots are fruitful.
(I’m glad the college 3pt line is longer so we can more easily assume shots translating and not have to look so much at form)

Defensively he’s got some small-Thybulle traits , with blind-side blocks on his matchup..and stickiness/athleticism

I’d probably choose Duarte over him.
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 12, 2021 7:48 pm    Post subject:

Mark10 45 wrote:
I haven’t seen Mcbride’s Synergy/%s by shot type ... but in January vs Texas Tech and Okstate - he started those games a combined 1-9 in the short midrange, with solid looks - these pretty open misses have me hesitant about his jumper form translating really well to both perimeter levels. I heard on the commentary that he’s good in the midrange -


I do not know the numbers, but yes he is known as a force in the midrange.
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 12, 2021 8:14 pm    Post subject:

lakerfanaticPT wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
I doubt NBA players are so willing to accept the vet min. You'd think he'd want a raise, don't you?

Anyway, this has already derailed a draft chat.


okay, back to the draft:))
McBride or Duarte at 22......or do we swing for the fences with Vrenz??

Also Zaire seems to be slipping in mocks......what do you think of him at 22?


It is not a fair question for me because I have so much more insight into McBride. I know his background, his athletic pedigree and his competitive mentality. Deuce is special, and I would bet my house he has a very successful career (if healthy) because all of the stuff I mentioned combined with being a very good basketball player. All I know from Duarte is what I have seen on the court.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:20 pm    Post subject:

Roko Prkacin is almost assuredly going to be available at #22 and I need the Lakers to pick him.
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:48 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Roko Prkacin is almost assuredly going to be available at #22 and I need the Lakers to pick him.


What do you envision him becoming? Play-style wise and such. The highest offensive upside for him has to do with him becoming more of a creator - with shades of Odom offensively, add a jumper possibly. Maybe more Clippers Odom too with the passing....
it’s the high ceiling play-style I can try hard enough to envision for him. His handle is loose right now but it looks natural enough to develop.

Different play-style you want him to become? He’s so unique I honestly can’t visualize his upside. Modern Kukoc?


Edit: I Guess the Odom thing is too rigid of an archetype... In today’s game- he’s just a wing.. so he can catch on a swing at the 3pt line and make a play - or occasionally bring the ball up.. like SFs of yesteryear, but he’s a PF.. he can even play small 5 one day bcuz he’s strong (see videos above)
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:25 am    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
lakerfanaticPT wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
I doubt NBA players are so willing to accept the vet min. You'd think he'd want a raise, don't you?

Anyway, this has already derailed a draft chat.


okay, back to the draft:))
McBride or Duarte at 22......or do we swing for the fences with Vrenz??

Also Zaire seems to be slipping in mocks......what do you think of him at 22?


It is not a fair question for me because I have so much more insight into McBride. I know his background, his athletic pedigree and his competitive mentality. Deuce is special, and I would bet my house he has a very successful career (if healthy) because all of the stuff I mentioned combined with being a very good basketball player. All I know from Duarte is what I have seen on the court.


Ok I just bought some McBride stock after watching more tape and comparing him to others in the class.. I wasn’t giving him the same upside-benefit-of-the -doubt, as I was others .. while he actually has a shorter road to travel to reach a good upside. I put him 8th on my board.

Compare him to Keon..... And to do that, we first need to admit that McBride is a top 5 athlete in the 1st round himself.... He’s a plus athlete especially with how functional it is defensively..also very functional w his speed attacking.. Keon has the longest road to travel of maybe any wing in the class to get a jumper —— while McBride is likely to translate as a pretty good shooter(at least).. his realistic floor if everything doesn’t go wrong, is high.. and his ceiling is high enough compared to this class.. Scottie Barnes realistic ceiling isn’t that high. McBride is a plus athlete who’s a safe bet in context of this class

6’2.5” guards are a dime a dozen, but he plays bigger than that on defense.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:31 pm    Post subject:

Mark10 45 wrote:
@Mike


Sengun - we've all seen the lowlights of him in the P&R on his scouting report. Here's another play demonstrating his movement pattern vs Croatia and Roko.
Look at the backpeddle/and him turn his hips - and then the same clunkiness defending the drive... he's not a PF..


People are saying because he has pretty mobile dribble moves, this portends well for his P&R coverage on the other end - but look at earlier career Demarcus Cousins - that translation isn't always 1:1. He moves more like Demarcus than D. Sabonis. He has really heavy legs on those P&R coverages. I don't see Sabonis

I think his 6'9 height is without shoes (Drummond is 6'10 now) ; some places list this kid at 6'10
A height check of Sengun next to Roko. lined up at the FT line - they defended eachother this game. Sengun has an inch on him


here's Roko's strength moving Sengun on the far corner. Roko is going to be able to play small ball 5 one day. Not the most confident handle this game, but decent - he mishandled and did a crossover against Sengun on the same play.
These country vs country games are the best indicator of where a young player is day1 when he steps onto the NBA.


Roko doesn't have that extra element of patience to let a play develop like Sengun. In general, that's why he's ranked higher.

Sabonis out of Gonzaga didn't move well either.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:33 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Roko Prkacin is almost assuredly going to be available at #22 and I need the Lakers to pick him.


That tier of player is just ranked all over the place tbh. But for now I have him ranked over Vrenz as well.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:48 pm    Post subject:

Mark10 45 wrote:


Ok I just bought some McBride stock after watching more tape and comparing him to others in the class.. I wasn’t giving him the same upside-benefit-of-the -doubt, as I was others .. while he actually has a shorter road to travel to reach a good upside. I put him 8th on my board.

Compare him to Keon..... And to do that, we first need to admit that McBride is a top 5 athlete in the 1st round himself.... He’s a plus athlete especially with how functional it is defensively..also very functional w his speed attacking.. Keon has the longest road to travel of maybe any wing in the class to get a jumper —— while McBride is likely to translate as a pretty good shooter(at least).. his realistic floor if everything doesn’t go wrong, is high.. and his ceiling is high enough compared to this class.. Scottie Barnes realistic ceiling isn’t that high. McBride is a plus athlete who’s a safe bet in context of this class

6’2.5” guards are a dime a dozen, but he plays bigger than that on defense.


Yes, at this point I am not sure he gets credit for the level of athlete that he is on the court. He has a burst of speed that I mostly have seen on a football field where he can change gears (and seemingly skip a few gears) to get past his guy like an elite RB when he sees a hole open up. I am not sure if you know his backstory, but he comes from excellent genes as his father played college ball (at a MAC school I think?) and his mom was a track star at Ohio State.

The only reason Deuce likely ended up at WVU is because he suffered a severe injury in football as a Junior. He was the starting QB and PG @ Cincinnati Moeller which is a Power 5 factory in Ohio across all sports. Alumni include Buddy Bell (and his sons), Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Larkin among many more pro's including Deuce's high school teammate Jax Hayes (Pelicans). Deuce was on many blue bloods radar in football and basketball....and most expected him to attend Ohio State for football since his mother had an athletic legacy there. He broke his ankle/foot pretty bad early in the football season which caused him to miss most of his Junior year in football and much of basketball. All of the blue bloods kind of faded away, and he decided to play only basketball his Senior season.

Since many P5 college classes we filled, it looked like he may have to take the mid-major route. His high school coach knew Huggins from his long tenure at University of Cincinnati and basically advised Huggins to offer him on the high school coaches word. Huggins did and he committed. It was a great gamble as he was great his Senior season and led Moeller to another state championship. If he never gets hurt, he likely commits to Ohio State (or another blue blood) long before the coach even calls Huggins.

I knew early his Freshman season that we had stole one and he was special. WVU was playing in a holiday tournament in Cancun and was favored to win the tournament. In the Semi-Finals, WVU found themselves down 15 points to a good North Iowa team with less than 10 minutes to go in the game....and our young roster appeared panicked. Deuce came off the bench and began draining contested mid range shots, 3's, blocking shots and dishing dimes while bringing WVU back to win the game. There is just something special about the young man....never gets shook and the moment is never too big for him.

WVU vs. North Iowa Highlights - Early in Deuce's Freshman Season
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2021 3:42 pm    Post subject:

Nice breakdown Akindo.. cool to know.

His defense on Cade was very nice...he plays D bigger than a 6’2.5 guy... Obviously the taller you are the more being an elite athlete is impactful, but some guys just have a knack for making plays bigger than their height or just making more plays period.

Was looking back through this thread. I caught some of PD’s YouTube breakdowns.. on top of 2 Ignite games....

Kuminga just looks like Jeff Green to me. He prefers to ISO and that will lead to floundering and being quiet on the court when he’s feautured less than he was in the Gleague.. I don’t really think he’s natural got a feel on how to implement his skill...especially when he’s not going to be highlighted in an offense. Another comp is Rui without a jumper yet... idk.. There are other athlete+skill upside plays I’d rather take a shot on - because their skill looks more implementable - Thor and Kai Jones.. Both are even far better defensive prospects..........
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:46 pm    Post subject:

Mark10 45 wrote:
Nice breakdown Akindo.. cool to know.

His defense on Cade was very nice...he plays D bigger than a 6’2.5 guy... Obviously the taller you are the more being an elite athlete is impactful, but some guys just have a knack for making plays bigger than their height or just making more plays period.

Was looking back through this thread. I caught some of PD’s YouTube breakdowns.. on top of 2 Ignite games....

Kuminga just looks like Jeff Green to me. He prefers to ISO and that will lead to floundering and being quiet on the court when he’s feautured less than he was in the Gleague.. I don’t really think he’s natural got a feel on how to implement his skill...especially when he’s not going to be highlighted in an offense. Another comp is Rui without a jumper yet... idk.. There are other athlete+skill upside plays I’d rather take a shot on - because their skill looks more implementable - Thor and Kai Jones.. Both are even far better defensive prospects..........


Jeff Green is exactly who I have been thinking of when comparing Kuminga. He just doesn’t strike me as great at anything. The defense doesn’t show much grit or passion you’d expect from someone with that physical profile, ballhandling is only half decent when in the open court, same for passing imo. Legs seem heavy and the hips don’t seem to move like you’d want. He also looks significantly smaller than the 6’8” he’s mostly listed. I just haven’t been impressed and only have him still in my top 10 in hopes that I’m just not seeing something everyone else seems to.
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