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j-dawg
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 8:54 am    Post subject:

Eindhoven wrote:
Why Kuzma and Hart are not on the list? Considering where they were picked, two great choices. Also Bryant was very good for a 2nd rounder.

Because people who look back at the draft in hindsight (rather than going by the events as they occurred back then) don’t realize that some of those guys were indeed handpicked and chosen by us.

I’m surprised somebody hasn’t tried to analyze and given a rating to how the Lakers “drafted” Chris Jeffries and how his Laker career would’ve been like.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 8:59 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
LAL messed up picks from 2000 to 2004, and woke up around 2005 by taking a risk with BPAs instead of team triangle fits.

This is especially why I'm adamant about not picking by fit. So many passed up solid rotation players, or better.

Although I think Murray will have a decent NBA career, I think the Sacramento Kings are the spiritual successor to the ghost of the 2000-04 Lakers scouting/drafting decision makers
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:00 am    Post subject:

j-dawg wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
Also, about Ingram, it was not a "great pick", it was the pick that 99% of the people would do, even Chad the bartender. I'm not saying he's not a great player, he is, but it was the most obvious choice.


He's a great pick. Even obvious picks can be great picks.

Exactly. I haven’t heard of this argument being framed this way


What is a common misconception is that people who do mock drafts *think* they know how NBA teams have their draft order, when in reality, no team has the same mock, all teams rank players differently, and all of them have different priorities and player development.

So no, even Brandon Ingram wasn't so "obvious" as a person may think. I even had an argument about Ingram #1 a few years ago with a guy who now works in the league because he was a Ben Simmons guy.

Well, Ben Simmons is mirroring his intangibles issues from college in a negative way, while Ingram is mirroring his in a positive way... and also why I talked to him about Ingram at #1.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:02 am    Post subject:

j-dawg wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
LAL messed up picks from 2000 to 2004, and woke up around 2005 by taking a risk with BPAs instead of team triangle fits.

This is especially why I'm adamant about not picking by fit. So many passed up solid rotation players, or better.

Although I think Murray will have a decent NBA career, I think the Sacramento Kings are the spiritual successor to the ghost of the 2000-04 Lakers scouting/drafting decision makers


I expect Murray to be better than just good. I just had more faith in Ivey.

But hell, Sacramento is so hell bent on trying to recreate GSW and getting into the playoffs, they're leaning to fit more than BPA, in which, considering the deeper NBA drafts of the past 6 years, doesn't penalize teams as harshly as it used to.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:08 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
j-dawg wrote:
I think it’s pretty good to get an All Star at the 10th overall pick if I’m picking at 10 and someone told me that my guy would become an All Star (even a 1x All Star), I’d feel pretty good about it.

Plenty of picks that take place before (and after) #10 don’t pan out. Again, I don’t think that’s considered a “bust” at all, especially someone who was injured like that. It’s certainly a disappointment, but I don’t consider that to be a bust. Now, if Bynum had been the 3rd overall pick instead of the 10th, we may be having a different conversation right now.

Anybody who was here in ‘05 knew that (outside of guys like Chris Paul or Raymond Felton, who were drafted high and totally out of reach) many people on this board would’ve been thrilled with Gerald Green or Danny Granger. Some of us pessimists felt that Mitch would draft Sean May… so we made it out of that draft in pretty good shape




If you get a #10 pick, a guy who develops, and becomes a critical player in getting the team competitive in the playoffs and even a playoff starter?

Yeah, the Lakers got IMMENSE value at #10.


The only guy who you could make a case for wanting instead in that draft (that was picked after #10) is Danny Granger. Bynum was more impactful than Lou Williams or Monta Ellis would have been.

And we were able to convert Bynum into Dwight. The problem is that Dwight then walked for nothing. So the asset that used to be Bynum effectively ended up as nothing.

Unrelatedly, how good do you guys think Bynum would have been if he had healthy knees? MVP level like Jokic or Embiid or just perennial all star?
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:09 am    Post subject:

CandyCanes wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
j-dawg wrote:
I think it’s pretty good to get an All Star at the 10th overall pick if I’m picking at 10 and someone told me that my guy would become an All Star (even a 1x All Star), I’d feel pretty good about it.

Plenty of picks that take place before (and after) #10 don’t pan out. Again, I don’t think that’s considered a “bust” at all, especially someone who was injured like that. It’s certainly a disappointment, but I don’t consider that to be a bust. Now, if Bynum had been the 3rd overall pick instead of the 10th, we may be having a different conversation right now.

Anybody who was here in ‘05 knew that (outside of guys like Chris Paul or Raymond Felton, who were drafted high and totally out of reach) many people on this board would’ve been thrilled with Gerald Green or Danny Granger. Some of us pessimists felt that Mitch would draft Sean May… so we made it out of that draft in pretty good shape




If you get a #10 pick, a guy who develops, and becomes a critical player in getting the team competitive in the playoffs and even a playoff starter?

Yeah, the Lakers got IMMENSE value at #10.


The only guy who you could make a case for wanting instead in that draft (that was picked after #10) is Danny Granger. Bynum was more impactful than Lou Williams or Monta Ellis would have been.

And we were able to convert Bynum into Dwight. The problem is that Dwight then walked for nothing. So the asset that used to be Bynum effectively ended up as nothing.


My draft list back then was:
Danny Granger
Fran Vasquez
Andrew Bynum

in that order. LAL got one of them. Fran didn't release to the public that he didn't want to be in the NBA. Granger was a 1x All Star who also burned out his knees, but did so as a #1 option for Indy.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:36 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
CandyCanes wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
j-dawg wrote:
I think it’s pretty good to get an All Star at the 10th overall pick if I’m picking at 10 and someone told me that my guy would become an All Star (even a 1x All Star), I’d feel pretty good about it.

Plenty of picks that take place before (and after) #10 don’t pan out. Again, I don’t think that’s considered a “bust” at all, especially someone who was injured like that. It’s certainly a disappointment, but I don’t consider that to be a bust. Now, if Bynum had been the 3rd overall pick instead of the 10th, we may be having a different conversation right now.

Anybody who was here in ‘05 knew that (outside of guys like Chris Paul or Raymond Felton, who were drafted high and totally out of reach) many people on this board would’ve been thrilled with Gerald Green or Danny Granger. Some of us pessimists felt that Mitch would draft Sean May… so we made it out of that draft in pretty good shape




If you get a #10 pick, a guy who develops, and becomes a critical player in getting the team competitive in the playoffs and even a playoff starter?

Yeah, the Lakers got IMMENSE value at #10.


The only guy who you could make a case for wanting instead in that draft (that was picked after #10) is Danny Granger. Bynum was more impactful than Lou Williams or Monta Ellis would have been.

And we were able to convert Bynum into Dwight. The problem is that Dwight then walked for nothing. So the asset that used to be Bynum effectively ended up as nothing.


My draft list back then was:
Danny Granger
Fran Vasquez
Andrew Bynum

in that order. LAL got one of them. Fran didn't release to the public that he didn't want to be in the NBA. Granger was a 1x All Star who also burned out his knees, but did so as a #1 option for Indy.


Would you rather have had Granger in retrospect?
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:43 am    Post subject:

I always wanted Granger over Bynum, but that was to trade for KG instead of Gasol. I still did/do.

Either way, it would have worked.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 10:25 am    Post subject:

CandyCanes wrote:
Unrelatedly, how good do you guys think Bynum would have been if he had healthy knees? MVP level like Jokic or Embiid or just perennial all star?


Bynum might have been an all-star in '08 if he didn't get hurt. We were 25-11 when he got hurt, and his emergence was the talk of the league. We'd gone from Kobe wanting to play on Pluto to being in first place in the Western Conference. I don't think Bynum was ever going to be an MVP candidate, but he could have made a few all-star rosters and all-NBA teams. Even with the injuries, he still made the all-star team and second team all-NBA.

I'm struck by how many people think that Bynum was a junk player or even a bust. He was essential to our success in the late '00s.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 11:59 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
CandyCanes wrote:
Unrelatedly, how good do you guys think Bynum would have been if he had healthy knees? MVP level like Jokic or Embiid or just perennial all star?


Bynum might have been an all-star in '08 if he didn't get hurt. We were 25-11 when he got hurt, and his emergence was the talk of the league. We'd gone from Kobe wanting to play on Pluto to being in first place in the Western Conference. I don't think Bynum was ever going to be an MVP candidate, but he could have made a few all-star rosters and all-NBA teams. Even with the injuries, he still made the all-star team and second team all-NBA.

I'm struck by how many people think that Bynum was a junk player or even a bust. He was essential to our success in the late '00s.


Who do you think his closest comparison as a player would be? Or at least, who is a similar impact player to a healthy Bynum?

I honestly thought he was going to be as good as Dwight someday. Which is sort of true in a way, at least for one season.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:03 pm    Post subject:

CandyCanes wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
CandyCanes wrote:
Unrelatedly, how good do you guys think Bynum would have been if he had healthy knees? MVP level like Jokic or Embiid or just perennial all star?


Bynum might have been an all-star in '08 if he didn't get hurt. We were 25-11 when he got hurt, and his emergence was the talk of the league. We'd gone from Kobe wanting to play on Pluto to being in first place in the Western Conference. I don't think Bynum was ever going to be an MVP candidate, but he could have made a few all-star rosters and all-NBA teams. Even with the injuries, he still made the all-star team and second team all-NBA.

I'm struck by how many people think that Bynum was a junk player or even a bust. He was essential to our success in the late '00s.


Who do you think his closest comparison as a player would be? Or at least, who is a similar impact player to a healthy Bynum?

I honestly thought he was going to be as good as Dwight someday. Which is sort of true in a way, at least for one season.


KAT
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:27 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
Also, about Ingram, it was not a "great pick", it was the pick that 99% of the people would do, even Chad the bartender. I'm not saying he's not a great player, he is, but it was the most obvious choice.


He's a great pick. Even obvious picks can be great picks.


He's a great player, but no great wisdom was needed to pick him, 10/10 GMs would have done the same, that's my point. A great pick because he became what we expected, but not to evaluate anyone's ability to pick players.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:34 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
j-dawg wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
Also, about Ingram, it was not a "great pick", it was the pick that 99% of the people would do, even Chad the bartender. I'm not saying he's not a great player, he is, but it was the most obvious choice.


He's a great pick. Even obvious picks can be great picks.

Exactly. I haven’t heard of this argument being framed this way


What is a common misconception is that people who do mock drafts *think* they know how NBA teams have their draft order, when in reality, no team has the same mock, all teams rank players differently, and all of them have different priorities and player development.

So no, even Brandon Ingram wasn't so "obvious" as a person may think. I even had an argument about Ingram #1 a few years ago with a guy who now works in the league because he was a Ben Simmons guy.

Well, Ben Simmons is mirroring his intangibles issues from college in a negative way, while Ingram is mirroring his in a positive way... and also why I talked to him about Ingram at #1.


IIRC, there were a couple of mocks with Dragan Bender as #2, but it was largely considered a 2-guy draft. Actually the green team in the east got it right with Brown as #3, who was mostly ranked around 6-9 in the draft.

And I remember your argument for Ingram as #1 back in the day, a great call.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:06 pm    Post subject:

CandyCanes wrote:
Who do you think his closest comparison as a player would be? Or at least, who is a similar impact player to a healthy Bynum?

I honestly thought he was going to be as good as Dwight someday. Which is sort of true in a way, at least for one season.


If Bynum had stayed healthy, the comparison that jumps to mind is Alonzo Mourning. I think that Mourning was a notch better than Bynum would have been, but we'll never know. Putting it another way, Mourning would have been Bynum's ceiling, but he might not have gotten there.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 2:09 pm    Post subject:

Eindhoven wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
Also, about Ingram, it was not a "great pick", it was the pick that 99% of the people would do, even Chad the bartender. I'm not saying he's not a great player, he is, but it was the most obvious choice.


He's a great pick. Even obvious picks can be great picks.


He's a great player, but no great wisdom was needed to pick him, 10/10 GMs would have done the same, that's my point. A great pick because he became what we expected, but not to evaluate anyone's ability to pick players.


9/10 GMs, that 10th GM would have picked him first.
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:01 am    Post subject:

Eindhoven wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
Also, about Ingram, it was not a "great pick", it was the pick that 99% of the people would do, even Chad the bartender. I'm not saying he's not a great player, he is, but it was the most obvious choice.


He's a great pick. Even obvious picks can be great picks.


He's a great player, but no great wisdom was needed to pick him, 10/10 GMs would have done the same, that's my point. A great pick because he became what we expected, but not to evaluate anyone's ability to pick players.


Do you know how many GMs in the league mess up this pick?

Greg Oden was obvious too. Sam Bowie. This spans decades man.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:26 am    Post subject: Re: Kupchak's Picks vs Rob's Picks

venturalakersfan wrote:
Not more than calling Lonzo a 5, that is a real side splitter. Considering he was drafted over Tatum, the pick should be a 0. Lonzo himself would be a 2-3.

I retracted mine. Think OP will do the rest of us the same courtesy?
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2022 10:36 pm    Post subject:

I doubt a lot would consider Mitch Kupchak "great" at drafting.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2022 10:37 pm    Post subject:

Batguano wrote:
Overrating the hell out of a lot of those Mitch picks, especially in the "Great" category...


overrating would be an understatement.
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