If Mike Conley Jr joins the draft, where would he go?

24KaratGold · Franchise Player Joined: 13 Aug 2006 Posts: 17350

I could see him leaving college because Oden and Lewis are gone, so Ohio State wouldn't be that good next year. His stock is rising because of this tournament, so unless he pulls a complete choke job in one of the games, he will probably leave.

I think he would be a great asset to the Lakers, but I was wondering where would he fall in the draft?
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Michlake · Star Player Joined: 14 Jan 2006 Posts: 3696

I would guess in the 10-15 range.

magic_bryant · Franchise Player Joined: 16 Oct 2002 Posts: 18179

Mike Conley Jr. will go late lotto, mid 1st round.
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Mike@LG · Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2007 2:31 pm Post subject:

mid-late 1st round.

No consistent jumpshot.
Slight of frame.
Defense could improve.
GMs tend to frown on PGs that are freshman.

Where did Shannon Brown go? #17 in a deeper draft, and he doesn't have PG skills.

Kyle Lowry? #20.

Rajon Rondo? #22, but he was underrated because he had wingspan to make up for lack of strength AND could play defense.

Great handles and great quickness makes you look good at the NCAA level.

A jumpshot, some strength, ability to play D? Solid NBA PG.

Don't forget. Just because Ron Lewis leaves doesn't mean he's the only SG. Daequan Cook comes off the bench and he was actually the better scorer during the early part of the season.
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magic_bryant · Franchise Player Joined: 16 Oct 2002 Posts: 18179

Mike@LG · Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2007 8:22 pm Post subject:

^What else do you think I meant by mid-late 1st round?

Even you admit that Rondo lacked a jumpshot and was dropped to 22. What's the difference between Rondo and Conley? Rondo was a better passer, ball-handler, and FAR better defender. Still fell that far deep and Conley doesn't have his length.

If he goes lotto, there's a dillusional GM out there. He's not even a top 5 frosh recruit of all the NCAA kids playing out there. That's on Oden, Durant, Wright, Cook, Ellington, Lawson, and Young; all before Conley.
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magic_bryant · Franchise Player Joined: 16 Oct 2002 Posts: 18179

I believe Conley's offensive game outweighs Rondo's in the eyes of many GMs, as he's shoot-first in an era when that style of player is over-valued. His jumpshooting doesn't need re-worked entirely as Rondo's did/does.

And yes, I believe that there is a delusional GM somewhere in that late lotto area.

To me, mid-late 1st rounder signifies the 20-30 range. Just a miscommunication on that, my apologies.
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davidse · Franchise Player Joined: 03 Jul 2005 Posts: 14302

one thing that could work in his favor is the draft being thin at pg - defenetly at the 1st rd level.
other than a.c. law - who'll get picked ahead of him ?
possibly lawson - if he declares.
i'd still be surprized to see him go lotto though.

LakersMD · Star Player Joined: 27 Jun 2003 Posts: 8014

cinimod · Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 12:00 am Post subject:

Does anybody (mike@ perhaps) care to compare/contrast Mike Conley Jr. and Darren Collison of UCLA?

They seem to be similar players.

How are they different and similar?

Are either Collison or Conley Jr. a better PG prospect than Jordan Farmar was/is?

If you guys are projecting Conley Jr. between 13 and 20, where would you project Collison if he were to come out?

Mike@LG · Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 7:11 am Post subject:

Conley Jr. is more of a handles/penetration PG. Collison is a system PG.

Collison is more selective of his shot. Faster. Better system player. More consistent from range. Both of them are too light for the NBA just yet. Collison is a ball-hawk on defense on top of that.

Conley is heavily reliant on dribble pentration to create plays. Crafty finisher in the paint, but tends to avoid contact instead of initiating contact as an offensive player.

Frankly I don't want to project either of them because they really aren't ready.
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C-BUS LAKERFAN · Star Player Joined: 30 May 2002 Posts: 1441

Mike@LG · Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 7:29 am Post subject:

LakerLogic · Franchise Player Joined: 27 Mar 2005 Posts: 17886

Ohio St guards are horrible at post-entry passing. Oden has been relegated to offensive putbacks and setting screens. Georgetown does a better job of getting Hibbert the ball.

C-BUS LAKERFAN · Star Player Joined: 30 May 2002 Posts: 1441

C-BUS LAKERFAN · Star Player Joined: 30 May 2002 Posts: 1441

cinimod · Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 1:14 pm Post subject:

Mike@LG · Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 1:17 pm Post subject:

I'll just rank who I like.

Rondo
Collison
Farmar
Conley
Lowry

Defense:
Rondo
Collison
Lowry
Farmar
Conley

Something special in the open court? Rondo. He thrives on a transition game the most of all the listed players.

In terms of offense, every player has their own strengths and weaknesses.

Rondo - Can break down any PG that plays him honest. Excellent in transition. Good ability to finish. Playmaker. Downsides - Doesn't know how to draw contact yet (Barbosa had this problem). Sub-par jumpshot.

Collison - Plays transition and halfcourt equally well. Not a reliant 1 on 1 player. Good playmaker. A bit underweight. Doesn't have Rondo's wingspan to compensate for lack of height/strength. Better jumpshot than Rondo.

Farmar - Best player off the ball. Great understanding of PG intangibles and halfcourt play. Doesn't have to speed or quickness off the dribble to attack like Rondo or Collison, but does have a good first step and a better build. Lack of wingspan hurts his abilities to finish and play man defense. Explosive leaper. Average jumpshot.

Mike Conley Jr. - Old school point guard. Needs the ball in his hands. Breaks down defense with great ball-handling and quick first step. Average passer. Sees 2 on 2 play, not the full 5 on 5 in the halfcourt set. Inconsistent jumpshot.

Kyle Lowry - Best combination of size and athleticism of the forementioned players. Can really draw contact and initiates contact in the paint. Rarely takes jumpshots. Sub-average playmaker. Unsure how to select his spots on offense. Good defender.

But, incomparison to better PGs like Felton, Jack, Deron Williams, and Chris Paul, they are levels below.

Rondo and Farmar are starter worthy PGs with improvement.

Lowry and and Collison look like backup PGs. I love Collison's game but just see Speedy Claxton with real hoop IQ and better skills. I'm concerned his slight frame doesn't allow him to handle NBA starters minutes.

Conley is a potential starter. Just has quite a ways to go.
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cinimod · Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 1:45 pm Post subject:

Good stuff Mike...

Any chance teams would be desperate enough for an extra pick in the '07 draft that we could maybe trade ours and a contract (i.e. cook) to get into the mid to late lotto of the '08 draft and a chance at Collison, if he in fact stays another year? Or are there some darkhorse players available in the early 20's this year that could sure up the PF and PG spots for us?

I think maybe with so much hoopla about how deep this draft is, it might pose an opportunity for us to move up in the '08 draft and get an impact player there, like Conley or Collison.

With a little muscle mass, which we've seen nearly everyone on the current roster improve in relatively short order, I really think Collison could be the answer to the Lakers point guard problem - certainly moreso than Farmar and likely sooner on the defensive end.

I figure the most we do this off-season is another stop-gap solution - I suppose we'll have to see what Buss wants to do with the luxury tax - there's a chance that they'll resign Smush, and I'm not sold on Farmar.

Farmar doesn't seem to have the lateral quickness to stay on the speedy point guard's shoulder on penetration, to ride him to the bigs and take away passing lanes. He always needs to turn his shoulders, and once he does that, he's at the ball handler's mercy.

Mike@LG · Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 1:57 pm Post subject:

Well that's the thing. I don't think backup PGs are a "solution" to the Lakers woes at PG.

Collison doesn't have the refined intangibles of Farmar. Not just yet. I see a lot of perimeter attack with Afflalo and Shipp with Collison, but not much exposure to anything in the paint.

Remember, Farmar is the guyt hat enabled bad hands Ryan Hollins to get drafted. Far more balanced attack.

Muscle mass isn't the end all and be-all either. I don't know if his frame can handle it, which is a key reason as to why I don't think Collison will be a starter worthy PG.

As for Farmar, he shows it, rarely. Can't show that lateral quickness for 35mpg, but what he does have over all listed PGs is a lot of vert. It shows in rebounding, weakside rotation help defense, contested shots, etc.

With a 6'3" wingspan, among the shortest in the league, it doesn't help. I'm almost half a foot shorter with a wingspan of 6'1".

As for the draft, all NBA teams are just waiting on Durant and Oden, really. This upcoming draft is going to be a below average draft, loaded with role players, and not a lot of depth.
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