🏈NFL 2023 DISCUSSION THREAD🏈
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 27, 2022 11:58 pm    Post subject:

We've reached the day of the draft, and Wednesday was a really spicy day as far as information and buzz. Some of the particulars as we have about 16 hours left, in what is easily the most unpredictable-looking draft since I've taken a serious interest in this a few years ago:

--Walker is now the consensus pick to go 1st overall, about -300 in most spots; beyond Walker, we literally have no consensus whatsoever!

--Despite the obvious narrative of Hutchinson being a slam dunk for Detroit, it appears that there is real momentum that Thibodeaux could actually be Detroit's choice at #2. Betting markets reflect this, as it's now neck-and-neck here, with the momentum towards Thibodeaux. I could see him as a solid favorite by the late morning. Josina Anderson reported as early as December that Thibodeaux would be their guy, and in an interview with her yesterday, Thibodeaux was wearing white Cartier sunglasses, which is apparently a thing in Detroit fashion.

--Markets were already split on whether Houston would take a CB at 3, and if so, which one; OR whether they would take an OL, and if so, which one...now you have to throw the wrinkle that Hutchinson also may be in the mix!

--The Jets are said to be weighing OL and Edge at #4. Well, if Houston goes with a CB at 3, there's a chance Hutchinson, the heavy favorite to be the #1 pick as of last Friday, could be available at 4! If the top 3 picks are edge rushers, do the Jets take the first OL, or do they take the likely 4th edge rusher, Jermaine Johnson, a player they are said to really love as well? Thibodeaux was the betting favorite to go 4th before the stuff of him possibly going at 2 started leaking out, and now markets are split between he and Hutchinson as the 4th pick favorite.

--Someone made the connection that Jets GM Joe Douglas has made 17 draft picks for the team, and 16 of them have been team captains. Of the top 3 OL options, only Neal was a team captain. All 3 of Thibodeaux, Hutchinson, and Johnson were captains as well.

--The national media seems to think that the Jets are in play for one of the top 2 CB's (Gardner and Stingley), while the local beat reporters and the mock sharps do not seem to believe this. I don't either, frankly, based on the history of both Robert Saleh's defenses and what has transpired with Douglas so far.

--The QB O/U prop has been dropped from 3.5 to 2.5 in most spots, and although I feel good about Malik Willis going somewhere in Round 1, I'm not 100% confident on Pickett or Ridder. In fact, in my final mock, I left Pickett out entirely. Speaking of Willis, I am thinking his two most likely landing spots are with Pittsburgh via trade up (possibly somewhere between 9 and 13), or Carolina via trade down. But heavily leaning Pittsburgh there.

--Quay Walker was seen as a sleeper 1st Round candidate this week, but that was until today...now he's a surefire guy, apparently, as his prop was -170 early Wednesday before jumping to -600!

--There will likely be a run of the top 4 WR's going between picks 8-16 (or maybe even starting at 6 or 7 if there's a trade up), and there's a good chance that there's at least one trade up by a team in order to secure one of those top 4 guys. In no particular order, those guys are London, Wilson, Williams, and Olave. The Saints, picking at 16 and 19, are thought to love Olave, and I think he is Green Bay's preferred WR, so it will be interesting to see what those two teams do. The Giants (at 7), Atlanta (at 8), Seattle (at 9), Minnesota (at 12), Houston (at 13), and Philly (at 15 and 18) could be trade-down candidates, depending on who is on the board. Most reporters I've seen have said that they expect most of the trades to occur after the top 10.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 3:40 pm    Post subject:

Final Mock, for the record:

1. Jaguars
Travon Walker

2. Lions
Kayvon Thibodeaux

3. Texans
Derek Stingley Jr.

4. Jets
Aidan Hutchinson

5. Giants
Sauce Gardner

6. Panthers
Ickey Ekwonu

7. Giants
Evan Neal

8. Falcons
Jermaine Johnson

9. Seahawks
Charles Cross

10. Jets
Drake London

11. Commanders
Kyle Hamilton

12. Steelers (trade up)
Malik Willis

13. Packers (trade up)
Garrett Wilson

14. Ravens
Jordan Davis

15. Eagles
Jameson Williams

16. Saints
Chris Olave

17. Chargers
Trevor Penning

18. Eagles
Trent McDuffie

19. Saints
Tyler Smith

20. Vikings (trade down)
George Karlaftis

21. Patriots
Devin Lloyd

22. Texans (trade down)
Quay Walker

23. Cardinals
Zion Johnson

24. Cowboys
Treylon Burks

25. Bills
Kaiir Elam

26. Titans
Desmond Ridder

27. Buccaneers
Daxton Hill

28. Packers
Logan Hall

29. Chiefs
Jahan Dotson

30. Chiefs
Kyler Gordon

31. Bengals
Devonte Wyatt

32. Lions
Lewis Cine
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:07 pm    Post subject:

My first 3 predictions:

1. Walker
2. Hutchinson
3. Johnson II
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:21 pm    Post subject:

I am 2 for 2! LOL, those were the easy ones.
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:24 pm    Post subject:

So far the story of the draft is Aidan Hutchinson's mom, wowza....
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:27 pm    Post subject:

Stingley Jr. goes 3, Chicken Stu strikes!
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:29 pm    Post subject:

I think the Jets will take Thibodeaux here.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:35 pm    Post subject:

Jets take the CB, Sauce Gardner.

I would think the Giants take Thibodeaux here but also hearing "off field concerns" could cause him to slide further.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:45 pm    Post subject:

Lanny rolling! I have no idea what is going to happen from here though.

Would Carolina consider taking a shot on one of the QBs? I would probably trade down if that was my plan but maybe they take a flyer on Willis or Pickett here.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:59 pm    Post subject:

Now who knows what Atlanta does. I'm thinking Jermaine Johnson, one of the WR's, or a trade down.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:01 pm    Post subject:

I was like 55/45 on the Atlanta pick. Got it wrong.
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:01 pm    Post subject:

I am not as sold on Drake London as some others are. He has too many drops for my liking.

Love the Giants draft so far, Thibodeaux and Neal are great picks in my opinion.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:05 pm    Post subject:

Seattle is basically a rebuild. I say take the best offensive or defensive lineman you like on the board. I will go with Stu and predict Cross here.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:08 pm    Post subject:

LakerLanny wrote:
Seattle is basically a rebuild. I say take the best offensive or defensive lineman you like on the board. I will go with Stu and predict Cross here.


Penning might fit better than Cross for them, but they didn't trade down. They've been known to reach, so I wouldn't be shocked at a Devin Lloyd or Quay Walker to fill the Bobby Wagner spot here. Johnson also makes sense.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:11 pm    Post subject:

Seattle actually makes a sensible choice. Now the Jets could go for Johnson (they are said to really like him), or their choice of any of the non-London WR's. I'd be shocked at anything else here, although I suppose Penning could be a possibility if they really are down on Becton and are looking to move him.
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:15 pm    Post subject:

I roll with Stu!

I like Jameson Williams long term better than Wilson myself.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:17 pm    Post subject:

No trades yet...I think Pittsburgh will take one of the QBs.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:18 pm    Post subject:

Spoke too soon, Lanny...Saints trade up to 11 with Washington! So I think this has to be a WR or, less likely, a QB. They've been linked heavily to Olave, but I wonder if they could think Williams is worth the move up. If it's a QB, it has to be Willis; Pickett is not a QB you trade up for.
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:23 pm    Post subject:

I have a feeling Saints will take Williams here.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:26 pm    Post subject:

Stu on fire again! Nice prediction on Olave.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:27 pm    Post subject:

Lions trade up to 12 with Minnesota, in the division trade! Could this be Willis?
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:29 pm    Post subject:

Lions taking Willis?
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:30 pm    Post subject:

Lions for Willis or maybe they love Jameson Williams enough?

Eagles just moved up to 13, also. Williams makes sense for them for sure.
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:30 pm    Post subject:

If they end up with Hutchinson and a high potential upside QB, that would be a huge win for what I think is a very good coach in Dan Campbell.
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:31 pm    Post subject:

I am a big Jameson Williams guy. Can't hate on that move at all.
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