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Mike@LG
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:42 pm    Post subject:

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yes we both must consider volume - Ayayi shot 39% on 3 attempts, while Grimes on 7. and then we both often look at mechanics, thankfully not needed as much as before the college 3pt line expanded, but it still plays a role. Another shooting factor - Grimes shoots solid off movement. ....they're not close as shooting prospects, I think that's fair to say


Yeah, when Ayayi isn't taking 3-point attempts, he's killing it midrange and at the hoop, precisely where Grimes isn't.

It's plenty fair to assume Grimes had an outlier shooting year and it won't project next level, because his own NCAA stats for the first 2 years say otherwise.

I would never bank on Grimes as a movement shooter. Now this is about drafting for a skill, not BPA. Movement shooters at the NCAA level really struggle to translate to the NBA, even with insane percentages.

But you want to pick a guy with limited ancillary skills that's best off in C+S as a projectable skill, not motion shooting, because of a scrimmage?

Cool. There's at least a full season of why teams were able to take away a lot of his game.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:44 pm    Post subject:

and it's actually 8.3 attempts per for Grimes. again, Grimes is a potential sharpshooter.. Ayayi is just a solid-everywhere in important facets.
Certain skills are more coveted and valuable at the next level, that's just a fact....and I'm not into guys who can only do that 1 skill, either - Grimes does multiple things.

Grimes' 2nd best shooting year is actually solid for a Freshman, 34% on 4 attempts shows potential for a freshman(we also look at mechanics) he finally cashed in on that potential as a Junior... and as a Sophomore had 19% assists %, showing that when he's not shooting he can do other things.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:47 pm    Post subject:

Mark10 45 wrote:
and it's actually 8.3 attempts per for Grimes. again, Grimes is a potential sharpshooter.. Ayayi is just a solid-everywhere in important facets.
Certain skills are more coveted and valuable at the next level, that's just a fact....and I'm not into guys who can only do that 1 skill, either - Grimes does multiple things


Joel Ayayi was 75% at the rim, 40.6% all other 2-point.

That's elite at the rim, and that's borderline elite all other 2-point. That's not just "solid everywhere."

You're arguing me over 1% arc shooting. Volume? Sure. I'd shoot that many 3-pointers too if I couldn't hit shots anywhere else on the floor.

Grimes isn't even a point guard or a lead decision-maker. Ayayi was.

Ayayi 41% on all jumpshots, 40.5% catch and shoot. But okay.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:48 pm    Post subject:

I feel the aspect of Grimes game lost here is the D. As mentioned earlier he gives me Caruso vibes with his lateral movement while not being the quickest or twitchy. I look at how good Houston is in this respect to extrapolate that Grimes should be solid in team defensive concepts.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:49 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Mark10 45 wrote:
and it's actually 8.3 attempts per for Grimes. again, Grimes is a potential sharpshooter.. Ayayi is just a solid-everywhere in important facets.
Certain skills are more coveted and valuable at the next level, that's just a fact....and I'm not into guys who can only do that 1 skill, either - Grimes does multiple things


Joel Ayayi was 75% at the rim, 40.6% all other 2-point.

That's elite at the rim, and that's borderline elite all other 2-point. That's not just "solid everywhere."

You're arguing me over 1% arc shooting. Volume? Sure. I'd shoot that many 3-pointers too if I couldn't hit shots anywhere else on the floor.


lol cmon my friend, volume is very important... and also we know that teams tell players to shoot more 3s than midrange, so it's not just inability for Grimes but scheme. and as a Sophomore I like that he passed the ball super well for his archetype considering his shot wasn't falling - and then we saw that passing against the best competition at the combine
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:52 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
I feel the aspect of Grimes game lost here is the D. As mentioned earlier he gives me Caruso vibes with his lateral movement while not being the quickest or twitchy. I look at how good Houston is in this respect to extrapolate that Grimes should be solid in team defensive concepts.


Which makes me frustrated, when Ayayi is a POA big defender, in one of the best defensive schemes, even with soft bigs. Gonzaga had zero shotblocking presence.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:54 pm    Post subject:

Mark10 45 wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Mark10 45 wrote:
and it's actually 8.3 attempts per for Grimes. again, Grimes is a potential sharpshooter.. Ayayi is just a solid-everywhere in important facets.
Certain skills are more coveted and valuable at the next level, that's just a fact....and I'm not into guys who can only do that 1 skill, either - Grimes does multiple things


Joel Ayayi was 75% at the rim, 40.6% all other 2-point.

That's elite at the rim, and that's borderline elite all other 2-point. That's not just "solid everywhere."

You're arguing me over 1% arc shooting. Volume? Sure. I'd shoot that many 3-pointers too if I couldn't hit shots anywhere else on the floor.


lol cmon my friend, volume is very important... and also we know that teams tell players to shoot more 3s than midrange, so it's not just inability for Grimes but scheme. and as a Sophomore I like that he passed the ball super well for his archetype considering his shot wasn't falling - and then we saw that passing against the best competition at the combine


Have you watched Houston this season? Or Grimes prior to this year?

This is really frustrating, not just on a "how to gauge a prospect on certain statistical principles" but how to project what goes to the NBA level and which player clearly has more skills.

I think there's a ton of fixation on a guy, and not enough on the 5-10 guys that are likely better NBA players, some with projectable shooting leaps, including Ayayi.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2021 5:18 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Mark10 45 wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Mark10 45 wrote:
and it's actually 8.3 attempts per for Grimes. again, Grimes is a potential sharpshooter.. Ayayi is just a solid-everywhere in important facets.
Certain skills are more coveted and valuable at the next level, that's just a fact....and I'm not into guys who can only do that 1 skill, either - Grimes does multiple things


Joel Ayayi was 75% at the rim, 40.6% all other 2-point.

That's elite at the rim, and that's borderline elite all other 2-point. That's not just "solid everywhere."

You're arguing me over 1% arc shooting. Volume? Sure. I'd shoot that many 3-pointers too if I couldn't hit shots anywhere else on the floor.


lol cmon my friend, volume is very important... and also we know that teams tell players to shoot more 3s than midrange, so it's not just inability for Grimes but scheme. and as a Sophomore I like that he passed the ball super well for his archetype considering his shot wasn't falling - and then we saw that passing against the best competition at the combine


Have you watched Houston this season? Or Grimes prior to this year?

This is really frustrating, not just on a "how to gauge a prospect on certain statistical principles" but how to project what goes to the NBA level and which player clearly has more skills.

I think there's a ton of fixation on a guy, and not enough on the 5-10 guys that are likely better NBA players, some with projectable shooting leaps, including Ayayi.


I didn't say Ayayi wasn't more skilled.... and yes I've watched Grimes.

Grimes has a game suited well for the next level.. while Ayayi is the opposite of that. imo
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2021 5:36 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
Grimes has a game suited well for the next level.. while Ayayi is the opposite of that. imo


I disagree, based on overwhelming stats and tape to the contrary.

Off ball play on offense and POA defense translate, moreso than immediate shooting.

Shooting is a ton more complex next level, and even Josh Hart with the outlier percentages, needed that adjustment.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2021 5:43 pm    Post subject:

I don't really see Ayayi having above average POA defense at the next level because of the athleticism and he plays it like he popped a quaalude. He always gives up too much space because he can at that level; bad angles opening his hips allowing drives.. too laxed. maybe he can fix it, but with the athleticism i don't see the ceiling on that end.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2021 5:49 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
Grimes has a game suited well for the next level.. while Ayayi is the opposite of that. imo


I disagree, based on overwhelming stats and tape to the contrary.

Off ball play on offense and POA defense translate, moreso than immediate shooting.

Shooting is a ton more complex next level, and even Josh Hart with the outlier percentages, needed that adjustment.


the main stat you've brought up against Grimes is midrange
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2021 5:50 pm    Post subject:

Mark10 45 wrote:
I don't really see Ayayi having above average POA defense at the next level because of the athleticism and he plays it like he popped a quaalude. He always gives up too much space because he can at that level; bad angles opening his hips allowing drives.. too laxed. maybe he can fix it, but with the athleticism i don't see the ceiling on that end.


Define how he does it so well without a shotblocker then.

He gives up space because he's 6'5" with a 6'7" wingspan.

But in either case, even if they were both bad defenders, in which I disagree with, Ayayi was a ton better offensively.

Houston always gets athletic teams that play elite team defense, and never really with 1v1 defenders. I don't count Grimes as part of that 1v1 defense anywhere, and especially don't trust his offense when it's short range passing to 15' and just spot up shooting, when he isn't the lead playmaker on his own team.

Even if it wasn't Grimes, and it was just a 3rd year any dude that suddenly shot 40/40/80, we would never consider him a draft pick in any draft year. So, his A/TO is a lie, based on his shooting frequency/role and short range passing being mistaken as actual playmaking.

Grimes lighting up a barely college defender in Austin Reaves, isn't swaying me.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2021 5:57 pm    Post subject:

Mark10 45 wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
Grimes has a game suited well for the next level.. while Ayayi is the opposite of that. imo


I disagree, based on overwhelming stats and tape to the contrary.

Off ball play on offense and POA defense translate, moreso than immediate shooting.

Shooting is a ton more complex next level, and even Josh Hart with the outlier percentages, needed that adjustment.


the main stat you've brought up against Grimes is midrange


Oh I've brought up multiple arguments because that's how much more skilled Ayayi is than Grimes at his 1 thing.

Ayayi midrange 40.6%
Grimes midrange 28.6%

Frequency in that area
Ayayi 12.3%
Grimes 24.6%

At the rim
Ayayi 75%, 51% of his total shots are at the rim (elite markers for both)
Grimes 58.9%, 17.9%

That is outlier elite off ball ability.

This vid is basically fastforwarded to what I remember out of Grimes this season. I would legit just force him to drive and then have the help defense contest the shot because he lacks blowby ability and passing ability out of it. That's a defensive win.

https://youtu.be/RWgf2GyQ0t4?t=437
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2021 6:14 pm    Post subject:

yea watching more, looking at his passing tape - I think it's too much for me to say approaching Joe Ingles passing.. he is a close-range passer but a willing one..and he had some nice kick outs at the combine, longer range passes. I like his passing willingness, but P&R skip reads aren't there - maybe the willingness develops that.
Lol look Mike, I don't watch these guys halfway enough, nor have the numbers readily available, enough to have legitimate takes on them.. but yea looking more at Grimes, I see where you're coming from. He's a pretty rigid offensive role guy; but it's fair to buy the shooting upside. still don't buy Ayayi though
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2021 6:36 pm    Post subject:

Mark10 45 wrote:
yea watching more, looking at his passing tape - I think it's too much for me to say approaching Joe Ingles passing.. he is a close-range passer but a willing one..and he had some nice kick outs at the combine, longer range passes. I like his passing willingness, but P&R skip reads aren't there - maybe the willingness develops that.
Lol look Mike, I don't watch these guys halfway enough, nor have the numbers readily available, enough to have legitimate takes on them.. but yea looking more at Grimes, I see where you're coming from. He's a pretty rigid offensive role guy; but it's fair to buy the shooting upside. still don't buy Ayayi though


I'm not mad at how you see Grimes.

I'm frustrated about how you don't see Ayayi is better. That is an absolute feel component to the game that can't be taught.

Like, those statistical numbers can't be faked, and they weren't faked either prior to this outlier Gonzaga team too when there was no Jalen Suggs as as creator.

It was still 66% at the rim, 30% assisted, but 39% shots at the rim. Outlier.

On just 5.3% assisted 2-point, he still shot over 43% from all other 2-point range. 3pt shooting was more average around 34.5%, but now it's an argument of "can he develop that 3pt consistency?" And the answer is yes, with his touch around the paint and 82.5FT% Turns out he did develop more 3pt consistency.

Both are terrible off ball defenders and straight up man 1v1 defenders anyway. But off ball, PnR, finishing alone? That's just overwhelmingly more ancillary skill with some outlier results to back it up. Personally, I'd rather have a 6'5" PG, just with a macro view.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:54 am    Post subject:

KIRoE, you like David Johnson .ore than Grimes, right?
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 02, 2021 8:53 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
KIRoE, you like David Johnson .ore than Grimes, right?


pretty much, same tier..neither guaranteed to be successful, but yea. DJ at 21 and Grimes at 25 on my board
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 7:14 am    Post subject:

T1
1. Cade
2. Mobley

3. Green
4. Suggs


-------------T2
5. JT Thor: trust his floor and think he has a the most realistic shot to hit a nice ceiling, out of the upside-plays in this tier. 6'10 in shoes, really skilled, 3s off the dribble. super long on defense with great shot blocking knack. super coordinated and athletic.

6. Davion Mitchell: safe.

7. Vrenz B: love that he's played a PG type role since he was HS age. At 6'9, his blend of skills is really unique.

8. Duece Mcbride: really good length measurements + athleticism show. can guard big enough wings too; guarded Cade really well. Traces the ball kind of like Thybulle.... great IQ defensive reads too. Collin Sexton offensively? Wants to play with pace, use his burst, score in midrange and solid from 3. ..converted PG level passer.

9. Kai Jones: potential 3pt shooting + super dynamic defensive piece. that'd be enough right there. don't think about more wing skills from him than that... He'll be able to attack a closeout nicely, and maybe make a nice pass a game, that's enough of the wing skills + the 3pt. He should be really good on short-rolls once he slows down a bit? He's going to be unique running his lane fullcourt. Needs to learn how to finish with touch on dump-offs; he's not the most natural at this big-man skill. Will need 5 years to see what his trajectory is, like Randle...who also needed the jumper to develop; it will take similar time for Kai.

10. Bouknight: floor is a 6 MOY candidate scorer. realistic ceiling is like Lavine-lite / Caris Levert type scoring. he's quicker than Clarkson, longer too. Solid rebounder. solid defensive potential. I do think he has the ancillary skills to stay on the court in playoff crunchtime, and the jumper will come around.

11. Barnes
12. Moody: Mikal Bridges; Tobias Harris with better defense as a ceiling.
13. Wagner
14. Cooper
15. Springer
16. Jalen Johnson
17. Giddey
18. Duarte
19. Sengun
20. Keon Johnson
21. Garuba



--------------T3
22. Butler
23. Tre Mann: best space creator in the class that I've seen. doesn't like ball pressure often times though. 6th man Cj Mccullum.
24. Roko Prkacin
25. Isaiah Jackson
26. Isaiah Livers
27. Quentin Grimes
28. Bones Hyland
29. Ziaire Williams
30. Kuminga
31. Trey Murphy
32. David Johnson: Caruso, Terrance Mann ish. All around 2way player. great passer as well.
33. Kispert
34. Dosumnu


------T4
35. Queta
36. Sandro M
37. Scottie Lewis: super athlete, long. has skill.. plays with energy. upside
38. Josh Christopher
39. Gabriele Procida: his form looks like Klay's so this is where he belongs. Some other stuff looks decent in his game too, 6'8 in shoes
40. Bj Boston
41. Austin Reaves
42. Jericho Sims
43. David Duke Jr
44. Greg Brown
45. Rokas J
46. Joe Wieskamp

--------------------- T5
47. Aaron Wiggins
48. Kessler Edwards: I see him in a PJ Tucker role. maybe some more help D value too
49. Joshua Primo
50. Joel Ayayi
51. Makur Maker
52. Ej Onu
53. Cam Thomas
54. Aaron Henry
55. Raiquan Gray
56. Aamir Simms
57. DJ Stewart (Miss St)
58. Isaiah Todd
59. Daishen Nix
60. Preston
61. Hauser
62. Marcus Bagley
63. Matt Mitchell


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:07 pm    Post subject:

not sure what to do with Sengun. watching more of his defense... sometimes he does move with a modicum of agility there.... he's not stuck in mud every single time.. I think that bumps him up for me.. so unique, special even, potentially offensively...... he has active arms defensively; but him not being a true Center size (I wouldn't harp on this if he played Center more often) is another sketchy element. Offensively he's a lotto prospect - top 8-10 ish.. if I didn't have major defensive concerns. honestly, sometimes his feet look worse than Zubac in terms of recovery. very interesting prospect because there's surely something redeeming athletically with him - I just don't know if it will ever blossom defensively, to make him a serviceable defender. He even has some recovery leaping ability+timing defensively........hmmm..


He's a fun swing.. and I generally don't put fun swings below the low 20s. do have a feeling he's got a good chance to be special offensively. defensively there's a case to be made to not be Kanter pessimistic.
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 05, 2021 3:15 pm    Post subject:

Watched a ton of Trey Murphy III.

I'm tons more impressed in his defense than offense, and there are issues defensively as well.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2021 8:27 am    Post subject:

Kai Jones
Jaden Springer
Jericho Sims
Brandon Boston Jr.
Chris Duarte
Kessler Edwards
Trey Murphy III
Josh Christopher
Vrenz Bleijenburgh

All updated on the Substack.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2021 9:37 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Kai Jones
Jaden Springer
Jericho Sims
Brandon Boston Jr.
Chris Duarte
Kessler Edwards
Trey Murphy III
Josh Christopher
Vrenz Bleijenburgh

All updated on the Substack.


Why Jericho Sims?

Chrishtopher or Primo. I am leaning Primo.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2021 5:38 am    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Kai Jones
Jaden Springer
Jericho Sims
Brandon Boston Jr.
Chris Duarte
Kessler Edwards
Trey Murphy III
Josh Christopher
Vrenz Bleijenburgh

All updated on the Substack.


Why Jericho Sims?

Chrishtopher or Primo. I am leaning Primo.


Because Klutch.

Why Primo? Youth? Articulate interview?

I may not like certain things about Christopher's game, but he's just 1 year older, in a way that Primo would need an outlier year in terms of physicality just to get close.

JayGup is easily an NBA athlete.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2021 5:09 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Kai Jones
Jaden Springer
Jericho Sims
Brandon Boston Jr.
Chris Duarte
Kessler Edwards
Trey Murphy III
Josh Christopher
Vrenz Bleijenburgh

All updated on the Substack.


Why Jericho Sims?

Chrishtopher or Primo. I am leaning Primo.


Because Klutch.

Why Primo? Youth? Articulate interview?

I may not like certain things about Christopher's game, but he's just 1 year older, in a way that Primo would need an outlier year in terms of physicality just to get close.

JayGup is easily an NBA athlete.


Never watched Primo's interview.

Primo appears to have a slightly better handle and the body control to use his handles to string moves together to create open looks for himself.

Yes Christopher is better physically but give Primo a couple years in an NBA training program and he has the frame to make strength and size gains and narrow the gap.

They both won't be ready to contribute on this Laker team for probably 2-3 years so I don't want either at 22.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:51 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Kai Jones
Jaden Springer
Jericho Sims
Brandon Boston Jr.
Chris Duarte
Kessler Edwards
Trey Murphy III
Josh Christopher
Vrenz Bleijenburgh

All updated on the Substack.


Why Jericho Sims?

Chrishtopher or Primo. I am leaning Primo.


Because Klutch.

Why Primo? Youth? Articulate interview?

I may not like certain things about Christopher's game, but he's just 1 year older, in a way that Primo would need an outlier year in terms of physicality just to get close.

JayGup is easily an NBA athlete.


Never watched Primo's interview.

Primo appears to have a slightly better handle and the body control to use his handles to string moves together to create open looks for himself.

Yes Christopher is better physically but give Primo a couple years in an NBA training program and he has the frame to make strength and size gains and narrow the gap.

They both won't be ready to contribute on this Laker team for probably 2-3 years so I don't want either at 22.


With all due respect, the concept of drafting a player and expecting them to really contribute to a winning team within the first 2-3 years is unrealistic. If you’re drafting with that in mind, you fall into the same logic the Lakers used in the early -mid 2000s. When they weren’t penny pinching giving pucks away they were drafting for fit and immediate impact which resulted in us getting guys like Kareem Rush, Brian Cook, Sasha vs when we simply drafted BPA or Best upside available in guys like Bynum, Farmar, and Turiaf.

At this point, our best player is going to be 37 next season, the more young talent you can acquire with high level upside who can impact the team AFTER Bron is gone and the team is AD’s, all the better.

No disrespect, I’m just not a fan of drafting for need or immediate impact over BPA or BUA.
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