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Mike@LG
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 20, 2021 8:58 am    Post subject:

Scottie Barnes - Can he score in the halfcourt?
Jalen Johnson - Can he score in the halfcourt?
Keon Johnson - Can he score in the halfcourt?
Tre Mann - Can he break a press and not get heated up on the dribble?
Jonathan Kuminga - Can he score in the halfcourt?
Josh Christopher - Can he erase his Nick Young shot selection and not pull a string on his contested Iso shots?
BJ Boston - Can he score in the halfcourt?
Scottie Lewis - Can he score in the halfcourt?

Guys I generally like:
Cade
Mobley
Suggs
Green
Springer
Giddey
Moody
Sengun
Prkacin
Duarte
Edwards
Hyland
McBride
Bleijenburgh
Rokas
Sharpe
Ayayi
Henry


Guys that can swing either way:
JT Thor - Doesn't know what he's doing but productive despite it. That counts as upside. May always be a finisher, but if the shooting continues with added footwork, it may not matter.

Franz Wagner - Giant growth spurt and scoring was once a major weakness. Still a chance he grows more into his body and develops more outlier-coordination skills. Great hoop head.

Sharife Cooper - A billion ways to get into the paint. Not a great finisher, doesn't have the outlier burst/speed/vert/wingspan to compensate. Draws a ton of a attention as a PnR PG without the most dynamic handle.

Kai Jones - if he actually flashed real creativity with passing, he would just be this years Pokusevski

Garuba - Outlier defensive ability, just zero gravity offensive threat, including verticality.

Jared Butler - Hard to tell. Played SG next to Davion, harder to see if there's a future primary player in there. But, he is at least a 3 level scorer.

Kispert - Reminds me of Cam Johnson, except I liked Cam's team defense more.

Davion Mitchell - Just cannot play intermediate speeds or finish lefty despite the advanced age. Can't always score on a sprint.

Isaiah Jackson - This year's Mitchell Robinson

Trey Murphy III - 2 foot jumper, lacks strength for a 4 spot, lacks the higher end ball handling to play wing.

Bouknight - Can't handle, but can shoot, finish athletically, and has some off-ball movement ability. Reminds me of KCP out of college in that way.

Mamukelashvili - Hartenstein, more advanced age, needs way more strength, but a triple threat player at 4.

Queta - Dieng had a long career. Queta is further ahead with his shooting and passing skills than Dieng by age.

Johnny Juzang - I actually do think he's an NBA player, just has a very specific role. Not a big fan of him playmaking or attacking the rim, just tons more dominant in the mid-range area. 3pt consistency would solidify an NBA career.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 20, 2021 10:26 am    Post subject:

^ One disagreement - Kuminga will absolutely score in the half-court. He won't score efficiently, but that kid is going to get up shots.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:21 am    Post subject:

Bouknight is an above average ball handler for a SG imo, and I think that's one of the bigger reasons why people see potential upside with him.. while KCP is below avg. ball handling. KCP in his early Piston's role had flashes here and there, but it wasn't advanced for his position like Bouknight, and any flash was rare.
Zach Lavine in his early NBA years was average (now above), and that handling upside came from Hight School.

https://youtu.be/gt-0wi0ufRU?t=389 left hand screen denying cross

https://youtu.be/gt-0wi0ufRU?t=436 Rokas' heads-up hesitation
in the next minute after this you'll see more beautiful screen denying crosses with his off-hand.


some moves that are very functional and effective for who he wants to be at the next level. I don't see a ball handling critique for him for position; he's not elite, he's not a gaurunteed win with a dribble move but who is? he's good, not great
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:43 am    Post subject:

Zach LaVine played PG in HS and was flashing off Kobe-like SG actions as a teenager.

I trusted LaVine to develop that, and got tons of flack for even saying that LAL should have considered him over Zach Randle on here.

Then it worked out.

Bouknight, I don't trust. Just a guy getting buy on tons of vert moreso than actual craft.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:01 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Luminous8 wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
^I wish he could decelerate better. Hoping that gets better with NBA training. Has more handles than he should, should never be a playmaker, and his deceleration improvement is critical to having a healthy bball career.


Kid has some surprising shake. I really was t expecting that. What’s he like defensively?


He has one direction. Because of his deceleration problems, he'll have issues vs guys that change direction on him. But late 2nd to UDFA? This is like a no brainer pick for me.


He just decided to go back to school. Too bad, I liked him as well.
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Mark10 45
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:18 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Zach LaVine played PG in HS and was flashing off Kobe-like SG actions as a teenager.

I trusted LaVine to develop that, and got tons of flack for even saying that LAL should have considered him over Zach Randle on here.

Then it worked out.

Bouknight, I don't trust. Just a guy getting buy on tons of vert moreso than actual craft.


yea but I think Bouknight's handle is where Lavine's handle is right now. Again, I don't think it's elite - how many SGs are a lock to win with a dribble move?

https://youtu.be/gt-0wi0ufRU?t=421 the subtle head fake hesitation in the midrange for the blowby.. 2 plays in a row
Leveraging a nice J with moves that makes defenders bite - is one of the key traits of modern ball handling..

https://youtu.be/gt-0wi0ufRU?t=459 these plays consecutively are as beautiful skill wise as it gets. on the first how he turns pressure into embarrassment with And-1 style crosses.

And on the 2nd play, again, leveraging the jumper with dribble moves - see how he got the defenders arms up thinking he'd shoot - and then the blowby.

And he's got nice craft seeking his midrange J
https://youtu.be/gt-0wi0ufRU?t=511 the dribble move is full steam ahead then he puts on the breaks, noticeable decel

https://youtu.be/gt-0wi0ufRU?t=680 how he puts this drop-defender on skates setting up this stop on a dime pull-up is awesome

How he gets into his pull-up, how stop on a dime it is, with the low shoulder selling drive, reminds me of Lavine
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:31 pm    Post subject:

^ See what you think of this analysis, KiROE: On Bouknight

I also don't see Bouknight as a special athlete like LaVine is.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:51 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
^ See what you think of this analysis, KiROE: On Bouknight

I also don't see Bouknight as a special athlete like LaVine is.


Love what I read in the first half of the article, encouraging. showing the comp to the dangerous off-ball moving SG archetype is tantalizing.. love that archetype. the moving SGs, the great cutters.

Lavine is another one who thrives off movement, specifically DHO plays - and https://youtu.be/gt-0wi0ufRU?t=261 this play from Bouknight is quintessential Lavine. DHO, hesitation, pull-up middy.


https://streamable.com/udi4y0 this play was used to critique Booknight's handle - but look at how tightly packed the defense is! no spacing!

https://streamable.com/1rnfbl this play is moreso an indictment of his athleticism - why did it take him so long to bend this corner? haha. ankle mobility or something? odd

the dribble height critique is an element of a sloppy handle that can be cleaned up, he looks over confident here https://streamable.com/coh4rv just lollygagging into the P&R, overconfident.

He has a pretty lanky frame - he's not a Coby White 6'5. Combo guards usually don't have his lanky of a frame... I don't think he's a combo guard, or someone you want bringing up the ball against pressure ----- but how often is there fullcourt pressure in the NBA anyways? not as much as college

https://youtu.be/gt-0wi0ufRU?t=483 this is a beautiful possession against ball-pressure. to make an off-hand dribble move after 10 seconds of ball pressure is great. a few highlights like this from this game.

Ball pressure was why I didn't buy into Coby White's handle. He just straight up lost the ball or picked it up... kinda like Bouknight too.. Coby has pretty dribble moves in a compact body.. but they both have SGs handles.
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Mike@LG
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:14 am    Post subject:

Mark is in one of my GCs. We disagree on Bouknight haha.
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:06 am    Post subject:

Cade
Mobley

Suggs
Green
Springer
Giddey

Moody
Johnson
Wagner
Barnes

Keon Johnson
Ziare Williams
Kai Jones

James Bouknight
Sengun
Prkacin
Tre Mann
JT Thor
Sharife Cooper
Corey Kispert

So from 20 and on it leaves:
Kuminga
Garuba
Mitchell
Isaiah Jackson
Jared Butler

Aaron Henry
Josh Christopher
Miles McBride
Kessler Edwards
Vrenz Bleijenburgh
Chris Duarte

TSJ
Trey Murphy III
Bones Hyland
Rokas Jokubaitis

Joel Ayayi
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:40 pm    Post subject:

If they don't trade the pick, Corey Kispert is likely there at 22 due to age and lack of athleticism. He may have a lower ceiling but much needed NBA ready shooting with some handles. He could easily be attached in a deal if needed.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2021 6:36 am    Post subject:

fansincemagic wrote:
If they don't trade the pick, Corey Kispert is likely there at 22 due to age and lack of athleticism. He may have a lower ceiling but much needed NBA ready shooting with some handles. He could easily be attached in a deal if needed.


He's been projected mid 1st for about 4-6 months.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2021 10:46 am    Post subject:

Yeah, Kispert is probably going to be picked in the teens if not the very end of the lottery barring other dudes jumping.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2021 8:07 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
^ See what you think of this analysis, KiROE: On Bouknight

I also don't see Bouknight as a special athlete like LaVine is.


That’s the difference for me. I was a big fan of Zach coming out of college because of some basic one on one skills, a developing jumper and elite level athleticism. I’m a fan of Bouk and like him more and more as I watch him, but I don’t think he has the creativity or athleticism to be a top level scorer or a number one option on a team.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2021 8:10 pm    Post subject:

Practice wrote:
Yeah, Kispert is probably going to be picked in the teens if not the very end of the lottery barring other dudes jumping.


Sounds from an interview I read he’s lobbying for pelicans. Talking about how he fits perfectly beside of Bi and Zion. Allowing them room to do their work
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2021 8:33 pm    Post subject:

Luminous8 wrote:
Practice wrote:
Yeah, Kispert is probably going to be picked in the teens if not the very end of the lottery barring other dudes jumping.


Sounds from an interview I read he’s lobbying for pelicans. Talking about how he fits perfectly beside of Bi and Zion. Allowing them room to do their work

It's a small sample size, but Griffin doesn't seem interested in older players in the lottery. Good for Kispert for lobbying, though - that 10th pick is probably his ceiling.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 7:15 am    Post subject:

My 10-20 tier is my least exciting for pick value. Barnes at #10. I don't love his floor or realistic ceiling.. that's the case for most of the players in the tier..even to Giddy at #17, and Keon at #18 (solid value just glaring red flags so I'm not too excited)

I have Kai Jones at #8, 2 spots above Barnes, because their floors aren't too dissimilar and Jones just has way more upside.

-moved Bouknight up to 12.. shooting is an obvious swing skill for everyone - but considering his shooting upside, I was encouraged to see how pure his shot looked in a workout clip. If his shooting approaches that ceiling then he's a pretty high upside guy -- 2b offensive option on contender.
Vrenz, Bouknight, Wagner kind of excite me more than Barnes?


tier below kind of peaks my interest.
I could move Grimes to the top of it, just because he has some of the most guaranteed skill in the tier; I'm confident he's an NBA player.

21. David Johnson
22. Jared Butler
23. Tre Mann
24. Roko
25. Grimes up from 26 after the combine
26. Terrance Shannon Jr
27. Trent Williams

also:
-Mamu at 31, cool player
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 7:30 am    Post subject:

Yeah the tier of players after 10 is relatively the same, and I don't like most of them.

Scottie Barnes is a floor player that can't shoot. Poor man's Ben Simmons or Rondo, but someone I actually think could help the Lakers considering his off-ball defensive ability.

Kai. I don't know. In other drafts, I'd have him as higher or even higher, but how can I trust a guy that has the guard movements, not the awareness, and isn't a scorer despite his abilities?

Giddy, I do like, and not just because he's a jumbo initiator. He's playing in a physical league, they don't really call fouls, and I may hate the shot, but it's trended better, while he uses his base/position alongside with high end vision/passing. Can't defend yet but I have him 6.

Keon, kind of like Kai. Freak athlete, learned hoops late, range to 15', moves faster than the game. How do you teach players to slow down? You don't. They do that over time if they stay in the league long enough. But right now, he's freaky Corey Brewer.

Vrenz, I like a ton and I think that's obvious.

Wagner, at least has the possibility of growing into his body more and getting some outlier coordination and further refining guard skills. At least the hoop IQ is there.

Tre Mann? Don't trust the handle, the wingspan, opportunistic playmaking, and something has to be outlier here for slower/smooth guards to work. Giddey is basically the size of a wing. Mann, is a smaller guard with a small guard's reach.

Jared Butler, can't risk with the heart issue.

Roko, just seems like an obvious 3 skills in a 4 body goes far player.

But in the end I still like Vrenz, Kessler, McBride, Duarte, Murphy, Hyland, Jokubaitis more than the 10-20 guys.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 12:03 pm    Post subject:

Tre Mann is really going to have to Clarkson-ize his game. Clarkson is 1 track minded, looking to get the shot up in the tiniest space - Tre is going to have to become like this, because you don't him pounding the rock longer than that. He's naturally a better space creator than Clarkson - but Clarkson always had a knack to hit runners; and not make bad decisions over-penetrating; while Mann probably will make bad decisions over-penetrating..being less long/bouncy, and throwing bad passes. turnovers look rough. Maybe I should put some guys over him

I still think becoming more 1 track minded / decisive pull-up decisions, is a tweak he can make. He could also improve his handle. I think his lack of length even restricts his passing angles.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 1:25 pm    Post subject:

I think they're wired differently, except JC has a tier better physical tools.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 4:26 pm    Post subject:

Mark10 45 wrote:
Tre Mann is really going to have to Clarkson-ize his game. Clarkson is 1 track minded, looking to get the shot up in the tiniest space - Tre is going to have to become like this, because you don't him pounding the rock longer than that. He's naturally a better space creator than Clarkson - but Clarkson always had a knack to hit runners; and not make bad decisions over-penetrating; while Mann probably will make bad decisions over-penetrating..being less long/bouncy, and throwing bad passes. turnovers look rough. Maybe I should put some guys over him

I still think becoming more 1 track minded / decisive pull-up decisions, is a tweak he can make. He could also improve his handle. I think his lack of length even restricts his passing angles.


Tre has been at or near the top of my list for the Lakers pick since April. I don't believe he needs to morph into a Clarkson archetype to be effective in the league.

Clarkson was never capable of being a lead guard. He never possessed the vision, instincts or mindset for this position. I do believe Tre has shown he is capable of playing as a lead guard given how the position has evolved thru the years. The current pool of PG's in the league is so diverse in regards to archetypes that Tre's skill set fits in within this group.

In regards to making decisive decisions that should evolve over time. A good example is BI. It took him close to 3 years with a lot of failure before he figured out how to efficiently score against NBA defenders. Even Clarkson with his better physical profile took him a few years before he learned how to score efficiently as he was the model for taking ill advised shots. Tre has a head start with his ability to create separation and a better starting point of a 3pt shot than either BI or JC. If he adds a floater then any issues finishing at the rim will be minimized.

I am not sure where the narrative of questions with his handles came from but they look solid to me. They are not Butler good but better than Suggs imo.

I understand there are question marks within his game but that holds true for every prospect entering the league. I just feel he has a good starting point to build upon.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 4:53 pm    Post subject:

The question marks from his handle stem from him dealing with pressure defenders in th half court, half court traps, or full court press; not iso shot creation with defaults to a predictable step back.

He has the kind of game that works in the regular season, not the post season. Not the twitch to compensate, not the strength, not the length.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 4:58 pm    Post subject:

Updated from May 24. Removed Jared Butler due to health concerns. Replaced with Nah'Shon Hyland after combine scrimmage performance. Removed Miles McBride. Is he any better than Tre Jones who was a 2nd round pick last year? Added Quentin Grimes.

Top 5 for Lakers pick

1. Tre Mann - I believe he can play PG
2. Jaden Springer - young skilled combo guard but tough to project
3. Nah'Shon Hyland - a better long term version of Jordan Clarkson
4. Rokas Jokubaitis - Dragic type offensive game with good athleticism
5. Chris Duarte - good fit with Lakers with his diverse scoring ability. Ready to play.

Others
Usman Garuba - Best defender in the draft and can guard all 5 positions.
Vrenz Bleijenbergh - good physical profile and flashes multi skills
Filip Petrusev - stretch 5 who has physical tools to play in the paint. Should complement AD.
Alperen Sengun - Jahlil Okafor offense with passing skill. Very young.
Quentin Grimes - just a good fit as a Laker if combine scrimmage performance is a better indicator of his skills. Tough defender with scoring ability and possibly ready to play.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 7:37 pm    Post subject:

I just don't get it with Grimes. 5 star HS player, 3 years NCAA, NBA ready build. .25FTr. 28.6%FG shooting all other 2point shots outside of the rim. No change in actual skill level.

Meanwhile, BJ Boston shows multiple ball handling flashes out of HS...
https://lakersdraft.substack.com/p/bj-boston-a-klutch-client
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 8:52 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
I just don't get it with Grimes. 5 star HS player, 3 years NCAA, NBA ready build. .25FTr. 28.6%FG shooting all other 2point shots outside of the rim. No change in actual skill level.

Meanwhile, BJ Boston shows multiple ball handling flashes out of HS...
https://lakersdraft.substack.com/p/bj-boston-a-klutch-client


I look at Grimes as a complementary 3 & D player this team sorely lacks. He high points his 3pt shot with a quick release that I believe he will be able to execute against NBA defenders. I literally had him close to udfa after the tournament games but I do wonder if fatigue played a role in his subpar shooting as they relied on him for much of Houston's offense and all Houston players play pressure defense as that was the key to their success imo.

His defense looks real at least as a on ball defender. I had a similar impression while watching Caruso in the gleague. Moves well laterally despite not being the quickest or twitchy. Had to re-watch the Baylor game and for the most part he was able to stay in front of the Baylor guards.

Albeit I may be relying too much on his scrimmage play.
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