Lakers Salary Cap / CBA Q&A (please see pg 17 for 2024 offseason projections)

[vasashi17+]

Vote on opt out from current CBA pushed again to March 31st.

https://twitter.com/NBAPR/status/1622729565792509954
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[wolfpaclaker]

Hey Vasashi, could you please give me an estimate of how much the Lakers could offer a free agent if they only keep AD, Bron, Christie, Reaves (with his rights), FRP and the other roster spots? What is the most they could offer in that scenario?

And as well, what is the most they could offer period, if they let everyone but AD, Bron go, and it was 10 empty spots + AD/Bron?

A lot of peeps assuming 2023 cap is dead based on Rui, and while I agree that it is unlikely we will sign anyone, I think it is definitely a possible scenario that if Harden or Kyrie want to become Lakers, the Lakers could offer a deal starting at 35M or so. No?

[vasashi17+]

@Wolf: I got you bro….this thread has a tendency of easily burying material, but here it is again for you and those they may have missed it…

[wolfpaclaker]

Vash, you the man. Appreciated bro!

So 36.8M. Lets calculate, that's roughly with raises, something like 150+M in guaranteed money. A player like Kyrie loses 40M in this scenario, but there could be player opt outs in year 2, or extensions assured verbally that will deal with that.

I mean if I'm Kyrie and I don't love the time in Dallas, and I have 150M offer from the Lakers, I would def consider it. If Cuban goes 5 years max on Kyrie, ok we probably can't compete.

Same with Harden.

I feel their teams will need to do a full 5 year offer or something like that to beat a 4 year offer from LA. LA has the framework to make this happen, if they really wanted it to.

Do I think it's the best course? No. But people act as if Lakers have no cap. They can clear up to 35M+. If they go this way and offer 4 years, that's a decent amount of change ....

[vasashi17+]

^Thx, my guy…

Ky can use that potential cap space as leverage with the Mavs to get a deal.

However, if we use Russ’s expiring deal to load up our books with salary before the trade deadline, we can potentially negotiate with Dallas on a S&t whete Ky gets closer to 40m via bird rights and we send picks plus salary aggregate back to Dallas to salvage a rental.

Either way, we’re not in a tremendous position of power with suboptimal cap space via our plethora of expiring deals. Although, never say never, cause this league has seen some wild events…
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[vasashi17+]

2022 cap sheet (as of 2/8/23)
1) Bron 44.5m
2) AD 38m
3) DLo 31.4m
4) Beas 15.5m
5) PatBev 13m
6) Walker IV (full tpMLE) 6.5m
7) Rui 6.3m
8) Vando 4.4m
9) Gabriel 1.9m
10) Reaves 1.6m
11) Brown Jr. (vet min) 1.8m
12) TBryant (vet min) 1.8m
13) Schro (vet min) 1.8m
14) MaxC (rookie min) 1m
= team salary of 170m (w/Ryan’s waived 410k dead cap hit); 14 roster spots taken up; 1 roster spot open
= tax bill of 44m (19.7m over the tax threshold of 150.3m)
= total team salary + luxury tax of 214m
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[gng930]

It'll be interesting to see how this ultimately affects their spending this summer. Does Jeannie relax her no-tax mandate? Is there a way to keep Rui, Reaves, and all the new guys? 16 mil might be an overpay for Beasley. How much will DLO command? It would be nice if we could use the NTMLE to add to our newly-acquired depth. My calculations have us able to spend no more than $60 million between DLO, Beasley, Rui, and Reaves to enable that and stay under the apron, so maybe something like:

DLO 25
Beasley 16
Rui 10
Reaves 8

Seems a bit optimistic but with the limited amount of cap space out there, DLO's history of only middling impact, and the amount of control we have over the other 3 it's within the realm of reality.
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Luxury Tax/FA Spreadsheet (Save to your Google Drive to edit)

[LaxT]

[vasashi17+]

@LaxT: I’m making some safe assumptions here that the cap will go up to the max allowed under the current CBA of 136m (10% max raise from current cap of 123.65m). It’s currently projected to be at 134m, but I bet it creeps to that 136m figure when it’s all said and done. Anyways, if that occurs below are the projections:

[LaxT]

[Aeneas Hunter]

The academic question I mentioned in the free agency thread:

Hypothetically, could we have moved Beasley for Turner in a three-way trade? I'll use San Antonio in the hypothetical. Walker goes to San Antonio and is absorbed into their cap space. Beasley goes to Indiana. San Antonio sends something to Indiana. We include a second round pick and/or cash compensation to San Antonio as a transaction fee.

I'm sure that I'm not the first person to think of this workaround, so there ought to be an answer.
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Internet Argument Resolved

[vasashi17+]

[vasashi17+]

2022 cap sheet (as of 2/9/23)
1) Bron 44.5m
2) AD 38m
3) DLo 31.4m
4) Beas 15.5m
5) Mo 10m (missed 2 LA games due to suspension at 125k per game)
6) Walker IV 6.5m
7) Rui 6.3m
8) Vando 4.4m
9) Gabriel 1.9m
10) Reed 1.9m
11) Brown Jr. 1.8m
12) Schro 1.8m
13) Reaves 1.6m
14) MaxC (rookie min) 1m
dead cap (of Ryan /Sterling deals) 0.5m
= team salary of 167.1m; 14 roster spots taken up; 1 roster spot open
= tax bill of 37.4m (17.6m over the tax threshold of 150.3m)
= total team salary + luxury tax of 204.5m
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[danzag]

[vasashi17+]

When it comes to our 2023 offseason business, we can go about it in 2 ways:

A) The capped out route

Or

B) The cap space route

A) Projected 2023/24 Offseason Laker Cap Sheet on a 136m Salary Cap
1. Bron 47.6m
2. AD 40.6m
3. DLo 38.7m full bird caphold
4. Rui 18.8m RFA caphold (QO must be offered by 6/30)
5. Beas 16.5m team option (must exercise option by 6/29)
6. Mo 10.3m nonguaranteed (full guarantee trigger date 6/29)
7. Walker 7.8m non bird caphold
8. Vando 4.7m partially guaranteed (300k with full trigger date 6/30)
9. Reaves 2.1m RFA caphold (QO must be offered by 6/30)
10. Reed 2.1m partially guaranteed (500k 10 days after season ends w full trigger date 7/8)
11. Gabriel 2.4m early bird caphold
12. TBJr 2.1m non bird caphold
13. Schro 2.1m non bird caphold
14. MaxC 1.7m
15. 2023 1st pick swap w/NO ~3m (based on pick falling between #20-30)
= capped out, but retention is possible via bird rights and if non bird is not enough, the use of the MLE and/or BAE can be used towards those players however the ntpMLE and BAE trigger the hard cap where team salary cannot breach 172m

B) Projected 2023/24 Offseason Laker Cap Sheet on a 136m Salary Cap

1. Bron 47.6m
2. AD 40.6m
3. MaxC 1.7m
4. 2023 1st pick swap w/NO ~3m
Dead cap 0.3m (Vando’s partial guarantee waived & renounced)
DLo renounced
Rui renounced
Beas team option declined & renounced
Mo waived & renounced
Walker renounced
Gabriel renounced
Reaves renounced
Reed waived & renounced
TBJr renounced
Schro renounced
5-12. 7 incomplete roster (IR) charges 8.8m
= 102m in team salary
= 34m in cap space

= capped out (if we renounce all our UFAs, keep our RFA capholds, do not waive any of our partial/non guaranteed deals & pick up Beas’s option)

= 11.8m in cap space (if we keep all our RFA capholds, but waive our partial/non guaranteed deals & do not pick up Beas’s option)

= 23.8m in cap space (if we only keep Reaves & Mo)

= 36.5m in cap space (if we purge everyone on our books except for Bron & AD)
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[gng930]

I have a hard time believing they will keep both Beasley and Bamba. Depending on draft day deals one (if not both) are getting waived. My best guess goes something like:

Bron 47
AD 40
DLO 25
Bamba 10
Rui 10
Reaves 8
Jared 4.5
Christie 2
Pick 3
NTMLE 11.5
BAE 4.5
Mix of vet/rookie minimums 5

Puts us below the apron with Bamba and the BAE being wildcards depending on deals before free agency.
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Luxury Tax/FA Spreadsheet (Save to your Google Drive to edit)

[LaxT]

1.
Before the trades
tax bill of 41m (18.7m over the tax threshold of 150.3m)
After
tax bill of 38.2m (17.9m over the tax threshold of 150.3m)

The team saved 3.6M , and send undisclosed amount to Orlando. So the money part is nearly identical for this season.

2.
To add up the players part and their contract status

Out
Nunn, 3 srps
Westbrook, JTA, Jones, 1 frp, 1 srp
Beverley, 1 srp
Bryant

In
Hachimura, bird right, RFA
Russell, bird right, UFA
Beasley, team option
Vanderbilt , only 300K guanranteed
Bamba, unguanranteed
Reed, unguanranteed
3 srps

In total, the team sends out 1 frp and 2 srp for the bird right of two players and options of four.

3.
Except for Jones (2.6M), all of the players involved have (nearly) no guaranteed salaries beyond. Expiring contracts for expiring contracts. It must be intentional to keep the cap space route alive. All six of the incoming players are auditioning before the team decides its free agency path.

4.
I anticipate first round exit before the season began. For the time being, they are #13 in the standings and fighting for play-in. I do think the current roster gives them a better chance in the remaining 27 games. Play-in, maybe first round, that's it for this season.

Still the Buss family will profit handsomely because the team is, and will always be, associated with the best player of his generation, Lebron James.

5.
I expect the team to realize that, unlike 2019, the cap space path will not yield a more competitive team this time. They will keep some of the six incoming players, pay some luxury tax with a self imposed payroll threshold of 180M or so. The roster should be better than before the trades, but mediocre in the standings.

6.
Comparing to her father, money weighs more for Jeanie Buss. Pelinka executes her preference.

[vasashi17+]

@LT: I agree with your assessment fam. Other than Bamba, I wasn’t too impressed with our deadline deals (got to admit that I’m not the biggest DLo fan) and I doubt we go deep into the postseason this year (ie another wasted year smfh)…but at the very least we did give ourselves more options (compared to an expiring Russ) this summer to accomplish whatever our endgame is.

@G: i do think those are safe projections on our FAs re-upping. To piggyback on your post, I’d like to give the max each of those guys can get in a new deal:

[LaxT]

[KBandKB]

[vasashi17+]

^2(KB): Yep. Think of it like this, when you’re over the cap as a result of your FA capholds, you can use bird rights to operate in retaining those players even if you’re capped out. You’re essentially using that “cap space potential” towards your own payer retention, rather than targeting another team’s FA. We are allowed to keep all our pending FAs via their various bird rights, but that’s on ownership to spend whatever their market value is along with the associated luxury taxes that would be applied in retaining those players at that price point (see: choosing to retain THT, while allowing AC, Wes & Kieff to be let go due to the taxes that would have amassed in their retention during 2021 free agency).

Let’s assume DLo gets his 30% max, Rui gets about 5m more than what the projected average NBA salary could be (ie ~15m) and Reaves gets the max allowed for an early bird player, our books could look like this…

1. Bron 47.6m
2. AD 40.6m
3. DLo 40.8m (30% max via full bird rights)
4. Rui 15m (via full bird rights)
5. Reaves ~12m (max allowed via early bird rights)
6. Beas 16.5m (via team option)
7. Mo 10.3m
8. Walker 7.8m (max allowed via non bird rights)
OR tpMLE 6.1m (portion of exception saved for 2023 SRP rookie min)
9. MaxC 1.7m
10. 2023 1st pick swap ~3m
11. 2023 2nd 1.1m (using portion of MLE for 3yr deal)
12. Vet min (Gabriel?) 2.1m
13. Vet min (TBJr?) 2.1m
14. Vet min (Schro?) 2.1m

~ 201m in total team salary (if Walker is a kept instead of using MLE, it’s slightly higher)
~ 150 in associated taxes (36m over 165m tax line w/repeater tax bracket applied)
~ 350m in total team payroll

Now that’s all assuming ownership is willing to pay that much on a team they believe has a shot at a title in running it mostly back next season. That would be a 1st for this particular ownership group in not only player retention, but the price in keeping them mostly together.

Also the above cap sheet assumes that Reaves is held onto via early bird rather than using the Gilbert Arenas provision to match another team’s offer sheet towards his restricted free agency. If another team offers him a crazy deal via their cap space (for example 20m per), then we have ability to match it using the GA provision, however our future cap sheet could reflect a poison pill contract…tl;dr in future years we’re looking at crazy tax payments towards Reave’s contract if he kept via this provision

Btw below are the respect bird rights on our pending FAs and the max they can make in a re-up if they are retained by us.

[JUST-MING]

Imagine paying $350 million for a lottery team .

[vasashi17+]

^Its a hypothetical we definitely gotta consider JM.

Do we retain and repeat by predominately running this squad back next season and pay a pREmium tax on it…

OR

Do we look to a bigger “name” and use DLo in a double S&t format to go the 3star route again, but in doing so cap our team spending (& taxes) at the cap apron as a hardcapped team?

[LaxT]

[vasashi17+]

@LT: although I believe Ky is a better “fit” than DLo is on this squad (ie dude has better defensive metrics than DLo this season), I agree with you that route 1 is a better way since we can utilize all our resources to retain & gain assets to flip later even if they aren’t viewed as keepers for the future.

I just have hard time believing this FO group is willing to spend a premium to do so. Even after trading for Russ, they had the opportunity to retain AC, Schro, Kieff and Wes, but didn’t. Even if they saw them as non-core pieces, they could have used them at the very least as salary fodder for an asset later, but I guess they deemed that luxury as a price not worth taking.

They got a lot of grief for it too, since nothing restricted them from doing so other than a larger tax bill. However, with the S&t route, they have a built in out in not spending, since they capped at 172m. Till they prove otherwise, that’s why I believe they will choose the 2nd route to hardcap themselves and gain that out.

For instance, they refused AC @8m per since he wound have cost an additional 27.5m in taxes. However this go around, let’s say they can retain Reaves at a similar price point, then as a repeat tax offender, Reaves would cost nearly 35.5m in taxes. Will they spend more for non-star players this time around? We’re all curious to find out.
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