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LeBronsPregameChalk Sixth Man
Joined: 08 Nov 2020 Posts: 71
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:52 am Post subject: |
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Outspoken wrote: | activeverb wrote: | Outspoken wrote: | Inspector Gadget wrote: | You guys can criticize Westbrook all you want but he’s still proving he’s a effective player |
We need to allow him to be a triple double player, because that is when his team is the most successful and when he is the most impactful. |
Not really.
WB averaged a triple-double in four seasons.
In those four seasons, his teams were not particularly good in the regular season (finishing 4th, 6th, 6th, and 8th in their division) or in the playoffs.
His teams never made it past the first round of the playoff, and had a combined playoff record of 5-16 in those four years.
For WB to be a triple-double player, you have to design the whole offense around him, as well as develop a scheme for him to cheat off his man defensively to get rebounds.
That is a formula for stats, rather than a formula for success.
In fact, Westbrook teams had their most success in years when his statistics, especially in rebounding, were not so mind-boggling. In the only year a Westbrook team made it to the finals, he averaged 23-4-6. |
It depends on how you view success. If we are measuring his success along KD, and Harden, when he made it to the finals, or along KD, when the thunder almost beat the Warriors, I don't think that is a fair assessment, but maybe it is my use of the word "most." Maybe just saying his teams have been successful and he has been very impactful when getting a triple double, it would have been received better.
In 157 games of getting a triple double he has a record of 111 - 46. A 71% winning percentage over the course of 6 seasons. When Westbrook gets a triple double his teams have been effective in winning. For example in 2017 the thunder won 57% of their games, when he got a triple double, it jumps to 81%. Wizards 46% overall, when he got a triple double, 61%. Over the course of 6 seasons, when he doesn't get a triple double, he has won 56% percent, he gets a triple double it jumps up to 71%. Now in terms of winning in the playoffs and a championship, need a talented team for that. |
I used to feel the same way, but then somebody pointed something out for me that made me rethink things.
Defensive rebounds require a key ingredient: a missed shot by the opponent. A player cannot will himself into getting a defensive rebound if the opponent has a perfect shot.
Basically, the more an opposing team misses, the more rebound opportunities players will get. Westbrook is more likely to pass to get 10+ rebounds in games that his opponents shoot poorly.
Obviously, the more a team misses, the less likely it will be that they win. Are the rebounds reflective of RW's rebounding prowess... or are they more of an indicator of how the opposing team shot?
If an opponent shoots well, RW is less likely to get the rebound totals, and more likely to win the game. If the opponent shoots poorly, RW is more likely to get his rebound mestone (i.e. more missed shots = more opportunities), and therefore less likely to win. Basically what I'm saying is that rebounds - especially for someone like RW, that got a lot of "cheap" rebounds in OKC - have more in common with opponent success than you might initially believe.
I do believe the triple double thing manifests itself in that way. I would be curious to look at opposing FG% in games RW does/does not get 10 rebounds. |
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mhan00 Retired Number
Joined: 13 Apr 2001 Posts: 32059
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:44 am Post subject: |
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Outspoken wrote: | activeverb wrote: | Outspoken wrote: | Inspector Gadget wrote: | You guys can criticize Westbrook all you want but he’s still proving he’s a effective player |
We need to allow him to be a triple double player, because that is when his team is the most successful and when he is the most impactful. |
Not really.
WB averaged a triple-double in four seasons.
In those four seasons, his teams were not particularly good in the regular season (finishing 4th, 6th, 6th, and 8th in their division) or in the playoffs.
His teams never made it past the first round of the playoff, and had a combined playoff record of 5-16 in those four years.
For WB to be a triple-double player, you have to design the whole offense around him, as well as develop a scheme for him to cheat off his man defensively to get rebounds.
That is a formula for stats, rather than a formula for success.
In fact, Westbrook teams had their most success in years when his statistics, especially in rebounding, were not so mind-boggling. In the only year a Westbrook team made it to the finals, he averaged 23-4-6. |
It depends on how you view success. If we are measuring his success along KD, and Harden, when he made it to the finals, or along KD, when the thunder almost beat the Warriors, I don't think that is a fair assessment, but maybe it is my use of the word "most." Maybe just saying his teams have been successful and he has been very impactful when getting a triple double, it would have been received better.
In 157 games of getting a triple double he has a record of 111 - 46. A 71% winning percentage over the course of 6 seasons. When Westbrook gets a triple double his teams have been effective in winning. For example in 2017 the thunder won 57% of their games, when he got a triple double, it jumps to 81%. Wizards 46% overall, when he got a triple double, 61%. Over the course of 6 seasons, when he doesn't get a triple double, he has won 56% percent, he gets a triple double it jumps up to 71%. Now in terms of winning in the playoffs and a championship, need a talented team for that. |
That stat has no context so we don’t know how useful it is. Correlation does not equal causation. What was the winning percentage of teams he got a triple double against vs those he didn’t? If he got most of his triple doubles against trash teams (and arguably that would make sense because it’s easier to rack up stats against bad teams rather than good) then that would be the reason why the winning percentage is up when RW gets a triple dub, not that the triple dub itself got the win. |
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PICKnPOP Star Player
Joined: 14 Jul 2014 Posts: 5377
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:49 am Post subject: |
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http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y7oarkrj
Christian wood and John wall for russell Westbrook, THT and 2027 first.
Let’s go!
All in on bron bron and AD
Bring wood and wall off the bench
Nunn/wall
Bradley/monk
Stanley/ariza
Bron/ melo
AD/woods _________________ “like I never left”
#1 |
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mhan00 Retired Number
Joined: 13 Apr 2001 Posts: 32059
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:52 am Post subject: |
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PICKnPOP wrote: | http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y7oarkrj
Christian wood and John wall for russell Westbrook, THT and 2027 first.
Let’s go!
All in on bron bron and AD
Bring wood and wall off the bench
Nunn/wall
Bradley/monk
Stanley/ariza
Bron/ melo
AD/woods |
No thanks. |
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mad55557777 Franchise Player
Joined: 29 Jun 2005 Posts: 23128
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:54 am Post subject: |
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mhan00 wrote: | PICKnPOP wrote: | http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y7oarkrj
Christian wood and John wall for russell Westbrook, THT and 2027 first.
Let’s go!
All in on bron bron and AD
Bring wood and wall off the bench
Nunn/wall
Bradley/monk
Stanley/ariza
Bron/ melo
AD/woods |
No thanks. |
same, we shouldn't give up that 2027FRP for Wall. i understand people hates WB, but go watch how Wall played last year before assuming Grass is always greener on the other side. |
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Four Decade Bandwagon Star Player
Joined: 18 Jul 2014 Posts: 8150
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:53 am Post subject: |
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I understand how frustrated fans are with WB but the Lakers just can’t keep throwing away good money after bad like a degenerate gambler. That is a bad deal!
Then again who knows what they would consider a bad deal for Westbrook.
James was obviously disgusted with Westbrook after he was so out of control and turned over the ball trying to weave through 3 defenders late in the fourth when they had it down to 6 pts at that point.
All that hard work undermined by a boneheaded play. One of many by multiple players unfortunately.
If only the Lakers would start games inspired and focused maybe they wouldn’t have to continually be digging out of 20 pt deficits. |
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sogood. Star Player
Joined: 17 Oct 2015 Posts: 1821
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:58 am Post subject: |
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Westbrook for Wall.
Makes no sense.
It's putting lipstick on a pig. |
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ahaider Star Player
Joined: 21 Feb 2012 Posts: 3501
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:11 pm Post subject: |
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M2K wrote: | Inspector Gadget wrote: | You guys can criticize Westbrook all you want but he’s still proving he’s a effective player |
Did he start playing defense yet? |
Is anyone on the Lakers playing defense? _________________ Author of James Harden and the Strip Club
"The key to good decision making is not knowledge. It is understanding. We are swimming in the former. We are desperately lacking in the latter." - Malcom Gladwell |
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Outspoken Star Player
Joined: 11 Feb 2015 Posts: 8450
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:11 pm Post subject: |
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mhan00 wrote: | Outspoken wrote: | activeverb wrote: | Outspoken wrote: | Inspector Gadget wrote: | You guys can criticize Westbrook all you want but he’s still proving he’s a effective player |
We need to allow him to be a triple double player, because that is when his team is the most successful and when he is the most impactful. |
Not really.
WB averaged a triple-double in four seasons.
In those four seasons, his teams were not particularly good in the regular season (finishing 4th, 6th, 6th, and 8th in their division) or in the playoffs.
His teams never made it past the first round of the playoff, and had a combined playoff record of 5-16 in those four years.
For WB to be a triple-double player, you have to design the whole offense around him, as well as develop a scheme for him to cheat off his man defensively to get rebounds.
That is a formula for stats, rather than a formula for success.
In fact, Westbrook teams had their most success in years when his statistics, especially in rebounding, were not so mind-boggling. In the only year a Westbrook team made it to the finals, he averaged 23-4-6. |
It depends on how you view success. If we are measuring his success along KD, and Harden, when he made it to the finals, or along KD, when the thunder almost beat the Warriors, I don't think that is a fair assessment, but maybe it is my use of the word "most." Maybe just saying his teams have been successful and he has been very impactful when getting a triple double, it would have been received better.
In 157 games of getting a triple double he has a record of 111 - 46. A 71% winning percentage over the course of 6 seasons. When Westbrook gets a triple double his teams have been effective in winning. For example in 2017 the thunder won 57% of their games, when he got a triple double, it jumps to 81%. Wizards 46% overall, when he got a triple double, 61%. Over the course of 6 seasons, when he doesn't get a triple double, he has won 56% percent, he gets a triple double it jumps up to 71%. Now in terms of winning in the playoffs and a championship, need a talented team for that. |
That stat has no context so we don’t know how useful it is. Correlation does not equal causation. What was the winning percentage of teams he got a triple double against vs those he didn’t? If he got most of his triple doubles against trash teams (and arguably that would make sense because it’s easier to rack up stats against bad teams rather than good) then that would be the reason why the winning percentage is up when RW gets a triple dub, not that the triple dub itself got the win. |
His team he was on has beaten elite teams and trash teams when he has gotten a triple double. He has lost to elite teams and trash teams when he has gotten a triple double. I think we need deeper context than just the triple double stat, like also how good are the teams he was on. The Wizards were not that good nor was the thunder after KD left. So if they are winning say over 70% of regular games or 60% of the games, when he gets a triple double it doesn't matter who we feel they were against. It matters about the win. Regular season can only get you to the playoffs. The playoffs shows how good your team and coaching staff really is. A player getting a triple double with a not so good team isn't gonna consistently beat a better team, in a 7 game series, but I was talking about Russ and what has been his very effective attribute in the last 5 years. As we stand now, we are losing to trash teams and elite teams. |
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sogood. Star Player
Joined: 17 Oct 2015 Posts: 1821
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:31 pm Post subject: |
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ahaider wrote: | M2K wrote: | Inspector Gadget wrote: | You guys can criticize Westbrook all you want but he’s still proving he’s a effective player |
Did he start playing defense yet? |
Is anyone on the Lakers playing defense? |
That wasn’t the question. |
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Bron2AD Star Player
Joined: 01 Jun 2021 Posts: 8979
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:04 pm Post subject: |
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PICKnPOP wrote: | http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y7oarkrj
Christian wood and John wall for russell Westbrook, THT and 2027 first.
Let’s go!
All in on bron bron and AD
Bring wood and wall off the bench
Nunn/wall
Bradley/monk
Stanley/ariza
Bron/ melo
AD/woods |
So we want to trade a guy producing 18.6/8.1/7.8 in 47 games for a guy who has played 0 games this year?
No thanks |
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Halflife Franchise Player
Joined: 15 Aug 2015 Posts: 16704
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lakersfever714 Franchise Player
Joined: 05 Jan 2016 Posts: 11758
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:31 pm Post subject: |
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Dennis100mtrash wrote: | PICKnPOP wrote: | http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y7oarkrj
Christian wood and John wall for russell Westbrook, THT and 2027 first.
Let’s go!
All in on bron bron and AD
Bring wood and wall off the bench
Nunn/wall
Bradley/monk
Stanley/ariza
Bron/ melo
AD/woods |
So we want to trade a guy producing 18.6/8.1/7.8 in 47 games for a guy who has played 0 games this year?
No thanks |
Don't forget that '27 frp as it could be the nost valuable asset in the trade. Must be Houston fans proposing all these trade idea trying to get that frp from us. |
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governator Retired Number
Joined: 28 Jan 2006 Posts: 25085
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:35 pm Post subject: |
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Sucks, I really thought WB sweet spot as the third option would be an 18-8-8 which he has done but it’s a square peg in a round hole with broken pieces. Just hoping the playoff would be Bron-AD time |
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Kblo247! Star Player
Joined: 05 Oct 2015 Posts: 3813
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:49 pm Post subject: |
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Halflife wrote: | spencer dinwindle having a tough time meshing with beal. Russ did OK. |
He’s got a damn neat 4 assist to 1 turnover ratio. He has better defensive numbers than Russ. He’s shooting better from three than Russ. And they have won more games at this point than they did with Russ. He’s literally outplaying Russ and helping the team be better than Russ stat padding did |
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Kblo247! Star Player
Joined: 05 Oct 2015 Posts: 3813
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:51 pm Post subject: |
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governator wrote: | Sucks, I really thought WB sweet spot as the third option would be an 18-8-8 which he has done but it’s a square peg in a round hole with broken pieces. Just hoping the playoff would be Bron-AD time |
It be fine if it didn’t come with 4 turnovers to offset the assists. And if didn’t come with him letting every guard blow by by or not contesting jump shooters so he can watch the glass to steal rebounds. The drop off from KCP defending on the perimeter and spacing the floor with Bron the point guard is huge
Hell Dennis the pg was better |
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lakersfever714 Franchise Player
Joined: 05 Jan 2016 Posts: 11758
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:09 pm Post subject: |
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What's the point of playing hard if you play like (bleep)? For $44M a year, I would be soaking in sweat every game too. Maybe WB could inspire AD to play hard. That's how he could help the team. Be AD's mentor and motivator.
Last edited by lakersfever714 on Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:11 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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governator Retired Number
Joined: 28 Jan 2006 Posts: 25085
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:10 pm Post subject: |
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Kblo247! wrote: | governator wrote: | Sucks, I really thought WB sweet spot as the third option would be an 18-8-8 which he has done but it’s a square peg in a round hole with broken pieces. Just hoping the playoff would be Bron-AD time |
It be fine if it didn’t come with 4 turnovers to offset the assists. And if didn’t come with him letting every guard blow by by or not contesting jump shooters so he can watch the glass to steal rebounds. The drop off from KCP defending on the perimeter and spacing the floor with Bron the point guard is huge
Hell Dennis the pg was better |
Yeah, our AC-KCP-DG with Kuz rotation was a really good perimeter defending squad |
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activeverb Retired Number
Joined: 17 Jun 2006 Posts: 37470
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:11 pm Post subject: |
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LeBronsPregameChalk wrote: | Outspoken wrote: | activeverb wrote: | Outspoken wrote: | Inspector Gadget wrote: | You guys can criticize Westbrook all you want but he’s still proving he’s a effective player |
We need to allow him to be a triple double player, because that is when his team is the most successful and when he is the most impactful. |
Not really.
WB averaged a triple-double in four seasons.
In those four seasons, his teams were not particularly good in the regular season (finishing 4th, 6th, 6th, and 8th in their division) or in the playoffs.
His teams never made it past the first round of the playoff, and had a combined playoff record of 5-16 in those four years.
For WB to be a triple-double player, you have to design the whole offense around him, as well as develop a scheme for him to cheat off his man defensively to get rebounds.
That is a formula for stats, rather than a formula for success.
In fact, Westbrook teams had their most success in years when his statistics, especially in rebounding, were not so mind-boggling. In the only year a Westbrook team made it to the finals, he averaged 23-4-6. |
It depends on how you view success. If we are measuring his success along KD, and Harden, when he made it to the finals, or along KD, when the thunder almost beat the Warriors, I don't think that is a fair assessment, but maybe it is my use of the word "most." Maybe just saying his teams have been successful and he has been very impactful when getting a triple double, it would have been received better.
In 157 games of getting a triple double he has a record of 111 - 46. A 71% winning percentage over the course of 6 seasons. When Westbrook gets a triple double his teams have been effective in winning. For example in 2017 the thunder won 57% of their games, when he got a triple double, it jumps to 81%. Wizards 46% overall, when he got a triple double, 61%. Over the course of 6 seasons, when he doesn't get a triple double, he has won 56% percent, he gets a triple double it jumps up to 71%. Now in terms of winning in the playoffs and a championship, need a talented team for that. |
I used to feel the same way, but then somebody pointed something out for me that made me rethink things.
Defensive rebounds require a key ingredient: a missed shot by the opponent. A player cannot will himself into getting a defensive rebound if the opponent has a perfect shot.
Basically, the more an opposing team misses, the more rebound opportunities players will get. Westbrook is more likely to pass to get 10+ rebounds in games that his opponents shoot poorly.
Obviously, the more a team misses, the less likely it will be that they win. Are the rebounds reflective of RW's rebounding prowess... or are they more of an indicator of how the opposing team shot?
If an opponent shoots well, RW is less likely to get the rebound totals, and more likely to win the game. If the opponent shoots poorly, RW is more likely to get his rebound mestone (i.e. more missed shots = more opportunities), and therefore less likely to win. Basically what I'm saying is that rebounds - especially for someone like RW, that got a lot of "cheap" rebounds in OKC - have more in common with opponent success than you might initially believe.
I do believe the triple double thing manifests itself in that way. I would be curious to look at opposing FG% in games RW does/does not get 10 rebounds. |
There's undoubtedly a lot of noise in that particular statistic.
In the years that Westbrook averaged a triple-double, his team's winning percentage was about 58%.
So another possibility is if you design the team to get WB triple-doubles, the team doesn't do that well; but if he has a small number of triple-doubles throughout a season that happen organically, the team does very well.
In any case, this year we are 4-3 when Westbrook got a triple-double, so it's not like that feat has translated into automatic success for us. |
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3baller Starting Rotation
Joined: 28 Oct 2017 Posts: 992
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:48 pm Post subject: |
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activeverb wrote: | LeBronsPregameChalk wrote: | Outspoken wrote: | activeverb wrote: | Outspoken wrote: | Inspector Gadget wrote: | You guys can criticize Westbrook all you want but he’s still proving he’s a effective player |
We need to allow him to be a triple double player, because that is when his team is the most successful and when he is the most impactful. |
Not really.
WB averaged a triple-double in four seasons.
In those four seasons, his teams were not particularly good in the regular season (finishing 4th, 6th, 6th, and 8th in their division) or in the playoffs.
His teams never made it past the first round of the playoff, and had a combined playoff record of 5-16 in those four years.
For WB to be a triple-double player, you have to design the whole offense around him, as well as develop a scheme for him to cheat off his man defensively to get rebounds.
That is a formula for stats, rather than a formula for success.
In fact, Westbrook teams had their most success in years when his statistics, especially in rebounding, were not so mind-boggling. In the only year a Westbrook team made it to the finals, he averaged 23-4-6. |
It depends on how you view success. If we are measuring his success along KD, and Harden, when he made it to the finals, or along KD, when the thunder almost beat the Warriors, I don't think that is a fair assessment, but maybe it is my use of the word "most." Maybe just saying his teams have been successful and he has been very impactful when getting a triple double, it would have been received better.
In 157 games of getting a triple double he has a record of 111 - 46. A 71% winning percentage over the course of 6 seasons. When Westbrook gets a triple double his teams have been effective in winning. For example in 2017 the thunder won 57% of their games, when he got a triple double, it jumps to 81%. Wizards 46% overall, when he got a triple double, 61%. Over the course of 6 seasons, when he doesn't get a triple double, he has won 56% percent, he gets a triple double it jumps up to 71%. Now in terms of winning in the playoffs and a championship, need a talented team for that. |
I used to feel the same way, but then somebody pointed something out for me that made me rethink things.
Defensive rebounds require a key ingredient: a missed shot by the opponent. A player cannot will himself into getting a defensive rebound if the opponent has a perfect shot.
Basically, the more an opposing team misses, the more rebound opportunities players will get. Westbrook is more likely to pass to get 10+ rebounds in games that his opponents shoot poorly.
Obviously, the more a team misses, the less likely it will be that they win. Are the rebounds reflective of RW's rebounding prowess... or are they more of an indicator of how the opposing team shot?
If an opponent shoots well, RW is less likely to get the rebound totals, and more likely to win the game. If the opponent shoots poorly, RW is more likely to get his rebound mestone (i.e. more missed shots = more opportunities), and therefore less likely to win. Basically what I'm saying is that rebounds - especially for someone like RW, that got a lot of "cheap" rebounds in OKC - have more in common with opponent success than you might initially believe.
I do believe the triple double thing manifests itself in that way. I would be curious to look at opposing FG% in games RW does/does not get 10 rebounds. |
There's undoubtedly a lot of noise in that particular statistic.
In the years that Westbrook averaged a triple-double, his team's winning percentage was about 58%.
So another possibility is if you design the team to get WB triple-doubles, the team doesn't do that well; but if he has a small number of triple-doubles throughout a season that happen organically, the team does very well.
In any case, this year we are 4-3 when Westbrook got a triple-double, so it's not like that feat has translated into automatic success for us. |
We're 4-5 when Russ gets his triple double if I'm not mistaken, not 4-3. _________________ Plan A - Schroder/Hield/Lebron/AD/Gasol
Plan B- Schroder/Powell/Lebron/AD/Gasol |
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mad55557777 Franchise Player
Joined: 29 Jun 2005 Posts: 23128
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:14 pm Post subject: |
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governator wrote: | Sucks, I really thought WB sweet spot as the third option would be an 18-8-8 which he has done but it’s a square peg in a round hole with broken pieces. Just hoping the playoff would be Bron-AD time |
The problem is that he did that as the 2nd option because lebron and AD were out. The trio has played 293 minutes together this season…. I certainly hope to see what they are capable of as the season go on. Russ has some great chemistry with AD when lebron was out. |
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Lakerz113 Star Player
Joined: 15 Mar 2015 Posts: 2445
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Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:42 pm Post subject: |
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Would love to see Russ cut more when LBJ drives. There was a particular play in the heat game where LBJ got him pass picked off trying to hit Russ standing at the three point line. Russ cutting more on offense would really kill two birds with one stone. |
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Aeneas Hunter Retired Number
Joined: 12 Jul 2005 Posts: 31763
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Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:16 am Post subject: |
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3baller wrote: | We're 4-5 when Russ gets his triple double if I'm not mistaken, not 4-3. |
That's correct. _________________ Internet Argument Resolved |
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pio2u Retired Number
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Halflife Franchise Player
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