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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
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 Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:07 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | ^
I'm with you, and I think that's the direction that management will go. It was significant when Stan Kasten floated that a week ago, or whenever that was. I don't know that we'll depend on all 3 of Vargas/Busch/Outman to be in the lineup on an everyday basis, but I think 2 of them is probably 50/50 to happen, if not higher. |
I think they'll look at it in an analytical way. Right now, we have 7 top 100 prospects (Cartaya, Miller, Vargas, Busch, Pages, Stone, Pepiot). Let's say that, we should expect to hit on 3 of them. A conservative estimate. Realistically, I think they're expecting to hit on 4/7. 2 position players and 2 starters.
But, let's say it's 3. We don't know which 3. Only way to find out is to make room for them so we can bring them up and see which 3 of the 7 we'll hit on. I think that's the approach they'll take. So of the prospects being mentioned as mlb ready by next year: Outman, Vargas, Busch, Miller, Stone, Pepiot, I think we're expecting to hit on at least 2 of them.
We just don't know which 2. But if we give all 6 time on the roster, we can figure out which 2 are hits.
Based on our history, we hit on prospects at a higher rate than 2/6.
Our first wave of prospects: Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, Pederson, Urias, Verdugo I think we hit on like 70-80%.
And our 2nd wave of prospects: May, Gonsolin, Smith, Lux, I think we hit on a pretty decent clip as well. I don't know which ones were considered failures, but I think the ones we traded ended up as failures and the ones we kept were hits.
So, for this next wave, I'm expecting a good hit rate as well because we seem to be good at judging which prospects to keep and which ones to trade/let go.
We just need to hit on 4 of: (Cartaya, Miller, Vargas, Busch, Pages, Stone, Pepiot) and our future will be bright with our payroll. We'll be right back up there with the Braves and the Astros as far as having a good blend of high priced veterans and cheap young cost controlled stars. |
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ChickenStu
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Joined: 25 Apr 2015
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Location: Anaheim, CA
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
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| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:15 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Reliever Robert Suarez agreed Thursday to remain with the San Diego Padres under a $46 million, five-year contract, according to multiple reports.
...........
Suarez, a 31-year-old rookie, was having a terrific postseason until allowing Bryce Harper's go-ahead, two-run homer with no outs in the eighth inning of Game 5 of the National League Championship Series that sent the Philadelphia Phillies to the World Series.
Manager Bob Melvin was criticized by some for letting Suarez pitch to Harper instead of using left-hander Josh Hader. Melvin said Hader wasn't ready when Harper came to bat and that he wanted to get through the final three innings with Suarez and Hader, the Padres' two best relievers. Melvin said he wanted to get two outs from Suarez in the eighth and the final four outs from Hader. Philadelphia won 4-3.
...........
Suarez was especially impressive in the NL Division Series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers, throwing four scoreless innings in three appearances. He pitched two scoreless innings in a wild-card series win against the New York Mets.
He went 5-1 with a 2.27 ERA in 45 appearances during the regular season. |
Now why would a 31 yr old rookie need a new deal? My only guess is past a certain age, you're no longer required to give the team 6 years of service. I think this is how it is with Japanese players.
Maybe Suarez fell under this rule:
| Quote: | (C) A Player covered under Rule 3(a)(1)(B) may not be signed
to a Major League contract unless he qualifies as a Foreign
Professional.
A Foreign Professional is a player who, at the time of
signing, is at least 25 years of age and has played as a professional
in a foreign professional league recognized by the Commissioner’s
Office for a minimum of six seasons. |
| Quote: | | Robert Suárez is a Venezuelan professional baseball pitcher for the San Diego Padres. He has played in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and Hanshin Tigers. |
Yeah, looks like he played at least 6 years in Japan from 2016 - 2021. What's interesting is that, he lost 2 years due to TJS but still got credit for 6 years of playing in Japan. Guess they recognize the injured years as well, just like they do here. |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16157
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| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:35 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Dodgers reliever Blake Treinen, who rehabbed his shoulder injury instead of having surgery in 2022, might be going under the knife after all.
It looks like Treinen might end up going under the knife after all [according to the tweet below]
Treinen is under contract for 2023 at $8 million. When Treinen was talking about miracles two months ago, he said team physican Dr. Neal ElAttrache had originally said his torn shoulder capsule would require season-ending surgery. It's unclear whether ElAttrache changed his mind or Treinen forced the issue with rest and rehab, but it's at least a little frustrating that Treinen could be looking at missing a big chunk of 2023 after missing virtually all of 2022.
Treinen is 34 years old, and while he's been excellent when healthy the last two years, shoulder surgery would mean he'll be more than two years removed from his last regular work heading into 2024.
It makes you wonder if we'll eventually get some behind-the-scenes information on how Treinen's conversations went with the doctors. Probably not material for Backstage Dodgers, but it could be interesting. It also makes you wonder if we've seen the last of Treinen in Dodger blue.
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| Quote: | Juan Toribio
@juanctoribio
#Dodgers and Blake Treinen are still talking through the best way to move forward with the shoulder injury that sidelined him most of the season. Undergoing surgery is among the options being discussed. |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16157
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| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:44 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Dodgers Free Agency Rumors: Dansby Swanson Viewed As Backup Option To Trea Turner & Carlos Correa
Although the Los Angeles Dodgers would welcome re-signing Turner, they are also said to have interest in Correa as well. But the likelihood of the Dodgers signing Correa doesn’t appear to be high given his part in the 2017 Houston Astros cheating scandal.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are facing reported competition from the Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners for Turner, who may still hold a preference of returning to the East Coast.
If the Dodgers find themselves in need of looking at options beyond Correa and Turner, they could attempt signing Swanson, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post:
| Quote: | | Word is, the Braves made an opening offer of about $100 million over six years to Swanson, which seems light. Sources suggest he did counter that offer, leading folks to believe he would indeed like to stay home in Atlanta. But the Dodgers seem to view him as a very viable and interesting option in light of the issues with Correa and Turner. |
https://dodgerblue.com/dodgers-free-agency-rumors-dansby-swanson-backup-option-to-trea-turner-carlos-correa/2022/11/11/
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| Quote: | Holly Baylor
@HollyBaylorMLB
Just saw Dansby Swanson at The Grove shopping with Freddie Freeman. He was wearing a Dodger hat 👀 |
Yeah, if we sign one of these SSs, then getting under $233M is out the window.
Unless, it's Kodai Senga + one of these SSs:
| Quote: | Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
Source: #Dodgers among teams showing interest in free agent Kodai Senga, who is now eligible to negotiate with @MLB teams.
·Twitter for iPhone |
| Quote: | MLB Deadline News
@MLBDeadlineNews
Per @jonmorosi, the #Dodgers have expressed interest in international free-agent RHP Kodai Senga, who owns a career 2.62 ERA over 1050 1/3 IP in the Nippon Baseball League in Japan and tops out at 100mph. |
$25-30M for the SS + $13M for Kodai Senga? That works.
Now, if Tyler Anderson accepts our QO, then that changes things alot. Hopefully he declines. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:59 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Rumor: Dodgers eye Japanese ace with Clayton Kershaw deal imminent
Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Dodgers are interested in Japanese ace Kodai Senga, who is officially eligible to begin the negotiation process with teams.
Morosi had previously reported that the Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres all expressed interested in the Japanese right-hander. The Dodgers have plenty of competition, which isn’t surprising, given the unique circumstances surrounding Kodai Senga.
Notably, Senga is not subject to the posting system that has become routine for players coming over from Japan.
Senga, who will be 30 in January, signed a five-year contract with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks back in December, but the deal featured an opt-out after the first season, which the strikeout artist exercised, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
That means that whoever, signs Senga in MLB free agency won’t have to pay the Hawks fees. That makes Senga, who has pitched to a career 2.59 ERA in the Nippon Professional Baseball league, even more desirable.
Senga utilized his curveball and slider more often in 2022, resulting in the Japanese ace missing many more bats than he ever had.
One can imagine the Dodgers, who have become something of a pitching factory in recent years, getting even more out of Senga.
With Kershaw nearing a one-year deal and Tyler Anderson mulling the qualifying offer the Dodgers extended to him, perhaps the club views Senga as added rotation insurance, especially with Walker Buehler recovering from a second Tommy John surgery in August.
It will be interesting to see who wins the Kodai Senga sweepstakes. |
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jonnybravo
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Joined: 21 Sep 2007
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| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:37 am Post subject: |
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^ Is he that young kid that's got filthy stuff? Can't remember his name.
_________________
KOBE |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:11 am Post subject: |
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| jonnybravo wrote: | | ^ Is he that young kid that's got filthy stuff? Can't remember his name. |
Nope.
That kid isn’t a free agent yet. Roki Sasaki
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iPZNnHP9S4Y |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:02 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Dodgers great Clayton Kershaw and the team are in agreement. Deal thought worth close to $20M for 2023.
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at least it's cheaper than the $20M the Braves gave Charlie Morton. |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
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| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:14 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Fabian Ardaya
@FabianArdaya
Breaking: Dodgers reliever Blake Treinen had right shoulder labrum and rotator cuff repair surgery. |
Guess he's out for 2023. What a dumb stubborn decision....
Why'd we even put him on the NLDS roster to give up a HR to Grisham?
Someone on reddit said it's a 10 month recovery, so 10 months from Nov 11, 2022 is......
Sep 11, 2023
Yup, looks like 10 months:
| Quote: | Jack Harris
@Jack_A_Harris
The #Dodgers announced that Blake Treinen had right shoulder labrum and rotator cuff repair surgery performed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache
That requires a rehab process of up to 10 months, meaning Treinen could miss all of the 2023 season |
| Quote: | Juan Toribio
@juanctoribio
#Dodgers Blake Treinen was able to come back from a pair of shoulder injuries last season, but the pain never really went away. They talked through the options and Treinen finally elected to get surgery. |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16157
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| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:30 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Dodgers’ extension for Blake Treinen was huge mistake after injury update
Yet another multi-year contract or extension for an injured reliever that’s not going to work out for the Los Angeles Dodgers. When will this trend stop? The Dodgers threw away millions the last couple of seasons with Tommy Kahnle, Danny Duffy and Jimmy Nelson.
This time, they tried it with Blake Treinen, who suffered a shoulder injury just three games into the 2022 season and didn’t return until September. That “return” featured two games before he was forced out of action again with the same injury.
That put another contract extension in jeopardy. Treinen, who had a team option for the 2023 season, had his deal re-worked by the Dodgers in late May while he was injured (and refusing to undergo recommended surgery, instead opting for rehab).
The Dodgers guaranteed his salary for 2023 and tacked on another team option for 2024. Seemed somewhat shrewd at the time, assuming Treinen was going to follow the proper medical advice, but he didn’t, and now the Dodgers are here.
The burly right-hander is likely going to need surgery this offseason, which is expected to knock him out for most or all of next year. More guaranteed money down the drain.
https://dodgersway.com/2022/11/10/dodgers-blake-treinen-injury-update-bad-news-2023/ |
$8M for Treinen
$8.1M for Buehler
$2M buyout for JT
$250k buyout for Alberto
If we're trying to get under $233M, that's $18.35M right there taking up space with no return. |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16157
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| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:37 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Astros GM James Click out after turning down 1-year offer
The Houston Astros announced Friday that they "will not enter into a renewal for the 2023 season" with general manager James Click, a bizarre conclusion to a three-year run that culminated in a championship and somehow ended in divorce.
Click and manager Dusty Baker saw their contracts expire at the end of October and were offered only one-year deals earlier this week by Astros owner Jim Crane in the wake of the team's World Series triumph. Only Baker, 73, opted to accept it. Click, 44, and Crane spent the week negotiating on a contract that ultimately did not come to fruition, leaving the makeup of the Astros' baseball-operations department in doubt.
Crane was gracious in his statement, writing that the Astros are "grateful for all of James' contributions," a stark deviation from the tension that had grown obvious.
"We have had great success in each of his three seasons, and James has been an important part of that success," Crane continued. "I want to personally thank him and wish him and his family well moving forward."
Click joined the Astros early in 2020, after Major League Baseball's investigation into the team's sign-stealing practices prompted the firings of GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch. He was brought in a few weeks after Baker, a forced marriage that nonetheless presided over three consecutive appearances in the American League Championship Series. |
Wow, how ungrateful is Jim Crane? |
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ChickenStu
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Joined: 25 Apr 2015
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Location: Anaheim, CA
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| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Senga reaches 100 on the gun? Sign me up. Then get Ohtani next year. Dodger baseball, must-see-TV in Japan! |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16157
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| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:04 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | | Senga reaches 100 on the gun? Sign me up. Then get Ohtani next year. Dodger baseball, must-see-TV in Japan! |
I’m sure that’s the thinking.
It’s like how the Cubs got Seiya Suzuki last year and he’s recruiting Japanese players to the Cubs this year. |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16157
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| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | "The Dodgers more than likely at some point in time in the couple of years here have to reset themselves under the luxury tax," Dodgers insider David Vassegh told the guys on AM570. "And this year would be that opportune free agency [period]."
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16157
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| Posted: Sat Nov 12, 2022 7:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Dodgers Free Agency Rumors: Trea Turner Unlikely To Re-Sign
According to Juan Toribio of MLB.com, Turner re-signing with the Dodgers is not considered a likely outcome:
Bringing back Turner is a possibility for the Dodgers, but multiple sources told MLB.com that it’s more likely the two-time All-Star will be playing elsewhere next season.
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| Quote: | Dodgers Rumors: How real is the Trea Turner-Phillies buzz?
The Philadelphia Phillies have reportedly emerged as the frontrunner in the Turner race. How real are those rumors?
..............
That’s a reputable report right there from MLB insider Jon Morosi. There was also previous speculation of this during the season due to Turner’s connection with former teammate Bryce Harper as well as the Phillies’ preference to fill their shortstop vacancy with a big splash.
Then, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski came out and said the Phillies won’t in any way restrict their spending after their run to the World Series. Though it seems like they’ve spent a prohibitive amount in recent years, they have somewhere in between $126 million and $174 million committed to their next six payrolls. That’s a lot of flexibility for a bigger market. |
| Quote: | MLB Network
@MLBNetwork
"A lot of people here at the meetings believe the Phillies are perhaps the most likely landing spot of all...Trea would love to play with Bryce again."
@jonmorosi reports on Trea Turner's market from the GM meetings in Vegas. 👀 #MLBNHotStove |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16157
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| Posted: Sat Nov 12, 2022 7:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Dodgers president Andrew Friedman says prospect Jacob Amaya is a legitimate option to replace Trea Turner at shortstop for Los Angeles in 2023.
Beyond the quartet of free agents, Friedman and Gomes indicated the team does “feel good” about Gavin Lux as an internal option to replace Turner at shortstop. Lux was a shortstop throughout his amateur career and for the first few years in the minors before the Dodgers moved him to second base with Seager at the major-league level. ...
Additionally, the Dodgers could use Chris Taylor at shortstop and prospect Jacob Amaya “can certainly handle it defensively and his offense is developing.”
“There are a lot of options externally and we have good options internally,” Friedman said. “So we get to wade through that market and figure out what ultimately makes the most sense.”
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Looks like the scouting report on Amaya is: "But he's excellent defensively and gets on base pretty well, so he certainly could fill that spot if necessary."
I'm ready for a light hitting defensive minded SS. I'm kinda tired of Seager and Trea Turner playing defense for us all these years. Lux scares me too. |
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Snipes
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Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Posts: 6040
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| Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2022 12:16 am Post subject: |
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| I don’t buy the TT or Correa smoke. Danany at a bargain? Maybe but the league isn’t going to let Dansby go to the Dodgers for a shade above 6/100. Surely someone will top that. He should easily touch 6/140 |
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Lamar's Bud
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Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 2232
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| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 1:21 pm Post subject: |
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Tyler Anderson going to the Angels. 3 years, $39 million.
Thanks for the good year Tyler, but going to the Angels is only going to blow up in your (and their) face. 
LINK |
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lakersken80
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Joined: 12 Aug 2009
Posts: 38789
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| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:18 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Quote: | Dodgers Free Agency Rumors: Trea Turner Unlikely To Re-Sign
According to Juan Toribio of MLB.com, Turner re-signing with the Dodgers is not considered a likely outcome:
Bringing back Turner is a possibility for the Dodgers, but multiple sources told MLB.com that it’s more likely the two-time All-Star will be playing elsewhere next season.
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| Quote: | Dodgers Rumors: How real is the Trea Turner-Phillies buzz?
The Philadelphia Phillies have reportedly emerged as the frontrunner in the Turner race. How real are those rumors?
..............
That’s a reputable report right there from MLB insider Jon Morosi. There was also previous speculation of this during the season due to Turner’s connection with former teammate Bryce Harper as well as the Phillies’ preference to fill their shortstop vacancy with a big splash.
Then, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski came out and said the Phillies won’t in any way restrict their spending after their run to the World Series. Though it seems like they’ve spent a prohibitive amount in recent years, they have somewhere in between $126 million and $174 million committed to their next six payrolls. That’s a lot of flexibility for a bigger market. |
| Quote: | MLB Network
@MLBNetwork
"A lot of people here at the meetings believe the Phillies are perhaps the most likely landing spot of all...Trea would love to play with Bryce again."
@jonmorosi reports on Trea Turner's market from the GM meetings in Vegas. 👀 #MLBNHotStove |
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This will make that one poster who craps on Trea Turner very happy.  |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16157
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| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Lamar's Bud wrote: | Tyler Anderson going to the Angels. 3 years, $39 million.
Thanks for the good year Tyler, but going to the Angels is only going to blow up in your (and their) face.
LINK |
yeah, he didn't believe in himself.
He passed up 1 yr for $19.65M for 2 more for $19.35M. If we didn't want him for 3 yrs at $39M, that means we're glad he didn't take the 1 yr for $19.65M. |
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ChickenStu
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Joined: 25 Apr 2015
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Location: Anaheim, CA
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| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:05 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Lamar's Bud wrote: | Tyler Anderson going to the Angels. 3 years, $39 million.
Thanks for the good year Tyler, but going to the Angels is only going to blow up in your (and their) face.
LINK |
yeah, he didn't believe in himself.
He passed up 1 yr for $19.65M for 2 more for $19.35M. If we didn't want him for 3 yrs at $39M, that means we're glad he didn't take the 1 yr for $19.65M. |
Apparently, he was going to take the QO if a 3-year offer hadn't come before the QO deadline, which was today. Since he'll be 33 on Dec. 30, I guess he wanted the security over a large one-year payday. Personally, I'm glad he signed with the Angels. We get a draft pick and aren't locked into paying him nearly $20MM in '23. I'd rather take the chance on Senga, or perhaps we end up with Verlander on a big-money, short-term deal. I'm thinking that Rodon is less likely, but we'll probably kick the tires there if we don't end up with Verlander or Senga. It's also worth noting that signing Verlander would not require us to give up a draft pick. |
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Lamar's Bud
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Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 2232
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| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:32 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Lamar's Bud wrote: | Tyler Anderson going to the Angels. 3 years, $39 million.
Thanks for the good year Tyler, but going to the Angels is only going to blow up in your (and their) face.
LINK |
yeah, he didn't believe in himself.
He passed up 1 yr for $19.65M for 2 more for $19.35M. If we didn't want him for 3 yrs at $39M, that means we're glad he didn't take the 1 yr for $19.65M. |
You’re not wrong. He definitely chose the security over the AAV, but taking a look at his career earnings, it makes it much clearer why he went that route. The $8.5M he made this past season was basically as much he’s made in all of his prior MLB service. So given his age and the volatility of most pitchers (decline/injury), I can at least understand why he took the extra $20M. Even better, he doesn’t necessarily have to relocate.
This is a move that just screams “Angels”. Guy played well, they sign him to a contract, and he’ll either get hurt or underperform. |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
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| Posted: Wed Nov 16, 2022 7:04 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Juan Toribio
@juanctoribio
Tyler Anderson is staying in Southern California. But he'll be playing for the Angels now.
#Dodgers had offered the one-year, $19.65 million qualifying offer. They weren't going to offer a multi-year deal.
———————-
@juanctoribio
correction here: #Dodgers weren't going to get to the three-year range.
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It doesn’t say in the article how much the 2 yr deal was. I’m guessing 2 yrs $30M? |
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Lamar's Bud
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Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 2232
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| Posted: Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:44 am Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: |
| Quote: | Juan Toribio
@juanctoribio
Tyler Anderson is staying in Southern California. But he'll be playing for the Angels now.
#Dodgers had offered the one-year, $19.65 million qualifying offer. They weren't going to offer a multi-year deal.
———————-
@juanctoribio
correction here: #Dodgers weren't going to get to the three-year range.
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It doesn’t say in the article how much the 2 yr deal was. I’m guessing 2 yrs $30M? |
Sounds about right. I can't see why he'd take the Angels deal if the Dodgers deal was for 2 years and more than $30M...unless he really feels he can't recoup another $5-$10M in that third year. With the QO being ~$20M, the Dodgers offering anything less than 2/$30M would have been disingenuous in their efforts to keep him.
Or maybe the Dodgers offered more than 2/$30M, but the second year was a team option with only a partial guarantee? Either way, Angels offered him more guaranteed money which is something you can't fault him for taking, nor the Dodgers not offering. |
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