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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 6:45 pm    Post subject:

This is why I was against carrying Buehler’s $8M salary this year. Now every dollar counts and if we end up over $233M, having Buehler on the roster was not worth it.

Now we can also rule out picking up Reynolds or any other salary at the trade deadline.

Also, I wonder if these projections figure in incentives. I think we’d have to wait until the end of the year to see who earned what incentives to get the final number.

For instance:

Quote:
Syndergaard will reportedly sign a one-year, $13 million deal and can earn up to $1.5 million in incentives


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 6:52 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
This is why I was against carrying Buehler’s $8M salary this year. Now every dollar counts and if we end up over $233M, having Buehler on the roster was not worth it.

Now we can also rule out picking up Reynolds or any other salary at the trade deadline.


Let's say that we are just over the # as the season begins, I think you can still get under the threshold as the season unfolds, no? If we go into the season at, say, $236MM, it would only take a minor move to get under.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 6:58 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
This is why I was against carrying Buehler’s $8M salary this year. Now every dollar counts and if we end up over $233M, having Buehler on the roster was not worth it.

Now we can also rule out picking up Reynolds or any other salary at the trade deadline.


Let's say that we are just over the # as the season begins, I think you can still get under the threshold as the season unfolds, no? If we go into the season at, say, $236MM, it would only take a minor move to get under.


For sure. However, if it’s a productive player, we’d be getting rid of someone we want/need.

If it’s an unproductive player (Taylor) we’d have to attach prospects (or eat a huge chunk of his salary. So, it’ll cost us.

I wonder how much Taylor is worth right now? We still owe him $15M per for 3 years. Would some team want him at $8M per for 3 years? We can send them $7M per and save $8M on the CBT each of the next 3 years.

Anyways, it locks us into this roster with no room for upgrades at the trade deadline.

This is it for our 2023 roster. We have little to no room to maneuver.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:39 pm    Post subject:

Another option I didn't think about:

We have 14 days to release, trade or put him on the roster. We can actually trade him. He's making $24M this year?

Some team is going to pick him up this year. What's his value? $5M at least right? So, we can trade him to a team, eat $19M of his contract and get under the $233M that way.

Every domestic violence offender has been given a 2nd chance to play: Urias, Chapman, Osuna, Ozuna, and others I'm forgetting. Everyone got a 2nd chance.

Bauer will be no different.


----------------

On another note, from what I remember, MLB offered Bauer a one year suspension if he doesn't appeal. He said no, so they gave him 2 years and he appealed it down to 194 games. So, he got an extra 32 games for going the appeal route.

This is from what I remember.

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Quote:
Bill Shaikin
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If Bauer were willing to consider a settlement, he could have negotiated for some or all of the 111 games he has missed on leave to be counted as part of the settlement. Bauer instead is appealing, and if he loses, he will miss 435 games.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:53 pm    Post subject:

^
We won't be able to trade him. The entire league knows that we are just going to release him. No leverage.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:57 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
^
We won't be able to trade him. The entire league knows that we are just going to release him. No leverage.


If we release him, Bauer gets to choose which team he wants to sign with at what price.

If there's no market for his services, then we can't trade him. But, if there's multiple teams wanting to sign him, then trading for him would give one of those teams a leg up on the competition.

It's the same way we picked up Corey Knebel. He was going to be non-tendered by Milwaukee. Every team knew this. But we still traded for him because we felt it was going to cost more to sign him once he was non-tendered (plus the risk of not getting him at all):

Quote:
With the non-tender deadline approaching, a deal between Knebel and the Brewers just wasn’t going to happen, and as Murray reports, one National League executive said his team was “salivating” at the idea of Knebel hitting free agency. However, five minutes before the deadline, a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers appeared out of nowhere, and in return, the Brewers will receive a player to be named later or cash.


Put it like this, if a team out there is willing to pay Bauer $5M for his services this year, they can get him from us for $4.5M. And they are guaranteed to get him instead of trying to compete for his services in the free agent market.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:16 pm    Post subject:

^
Normally, I'd agree, but this is a player with tremendous baggage. I don't see a team being willing to give up anything to get him. I suppose the fact that the Dodgers could pay down most of the salary could be somewhat appealing, but because of who he is, I just have a hard time thinking that a team would do it.

For the Dodgers' sake, if it saves them a little bit of money, I'm all for it.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:20 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
^
Normally, I'd agree, but this is a player with tremendous baggage. I don't see a team being willing to give up anything to get him. I suppose the fact that the Dodgers could pay down most of the salary could be somewhat appealing, but because of who he is, I just have a hard time thinking that a team would do it.

For the Dodgers' sake, if it saves them a little bit of money, I'm all for it.


Which I agreed with. If there is zero market for him, then yeah, we won't be able to trade him.

But, then that would have nothing to do with your statement that we have zero leverage because every team knows we will release him.

We would have leverage if there's a market for his services.

Quote:
Whichever Team Picks Up Trevor Bauer Will Take PR Hit, Receive Elite Starter

After Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Trevor Bauer was reinstated by Major League Baseball Thursday evening, USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported that the Dodgers plan to release Bauer. He would become the best free agent available, with his salary paid for by another team, but adding Bauer would come at a cost.


Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Trevor Bauer was reinstated by Major League Baseball Thursday evening. His suspension was reduced to 194 games, and he will be available to play immediately in the 2023 season.

USA Today's Bob Nightengale reports that the Dodgers plan to release Bauer, making him a free agent. The club would be on the hook for his $23 million salary in 2023. The Dodgers have yet to announce their decision.

If Bauer is released, he would be free to sign with any team.

Whichever team that chooses to sign him, will be acquiring a top of the rotation arm at a discount, but it will come with a price.

Some fans will not want their clubs to associate themselves with Bauer, after his Domestic Violence suspension.

Any organization that adds Bauer to its roster will take a public relations hit, but they'll add a pitcher three years removed from a Cy Young season, entering a contract year, hungry to prove himself and put the past behind him.

Bauer is a game-changing talent that could make a serious difference for any club that is in true contention for a World Series.

The soon-to-be free agent will be the best player on the market, and have his salary paid for by another team, but adding him will come at a cost.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:56 pm    Post subject:

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Inside the unprecedented turn of events that made Carlos Correa a New York Met

On Monday night, Correa's agent, Scott Boras, also posted up on the 12th floor, received a call from Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi expressing trepidation over results from the standard medical analysis of Correa. Their concerns were with Correa's lower right leg, which had been surgically repaired in 2014 after he broke his fibula on a slide during a minor league game. It was an injury Correa hadn't thought about in years, and suddenly it was putting in jeopardy the fourth-largest guaranteed contract in North American sports history.

The team asked Boras for more time to consider whether to honor or walk away from the agreement. The Giants postponed Tuesday morning's news conference, the first sign to the world that something was amiss. Correa sat, waited and tried to stay calm, even as his family struggled to.

Finally, about 1 p.m. PT, the parties reengaged on the phone. Boras asked team officials whether they intended to proceed with the 13-year contract. The Giants said they did not -- at least not at its current length and value. Perhaps they could work out a new deal.

-------------

Sitting in the St. Regis on Tuesday afternoon, Correa and Boras got to work. Correa had braved a disappointing free agency a year earlier. This time, the stakes were even higher. They had discussed contingency plans, and almost immediately they would launch one. Don't regroup. Don't wait a week. Go get a deal. Now. Because if the Giants weren't going to lavish Correa with money, someone else would.

UNTIL 8:15 A.M. PT Tuesday, there were no signs publicly that the Giants were even considering failing Correa's physical. Then came a seven-word statement, equal parts spare and cryptic, put out by the organization a day after it had announced its executives would hold a media availability: "Today's Giants press conference has been postponed."

The use of "postponed" implied that the Correa announcement simply was delayed. But the reality was far more ominous. The notion that a long-ago injury that hadn't hindered Correa at all over his eight major league seasons would scuttle the deal made little sense to the two-time All-Star shortstop. Nevertheless, Boras late into the night reached out to doctors familiar with Correa's medical records who vouched for his present health and suggested the risk going forward was not acute.

The Giants were not convinced. The team's fear, according to people with knowledge of their assessment, concerned the long-term stability of his leg -- and the potential for Correa to quickly lose the mobility that won him a Platinum Glove in 2021. Boras scoffed at that notion, citing the 10-year offer made this winter by the Minnesota Twins, for whom Correa played during the 2022 season. If a team familiar with his medical history was willing to offer Correa a decade-long contract, his reasoning went, how bad could the injury really be?

------------------

Before an in-person physical, teams are often in the dark as to the full nature of a player's health. During the free agent process, agents can provide notes from doctors and teams can access a finite amount of medical records. Not typically included among them, multiple general managers said, is the imaging that provides the clearest picture of a player's health, past and present.

The first phone call on Monday night, after the physical concluded, alerted Correa to the Giants' apprehension. By this point, immolating the deal would have significant consequences for the Giants. In the days since they agreed with Correa, shortstop Dansby Swanson -- the final elite position-playing free agent -- had come to terms with the Chicago Cubs on a $177 million contract. Left-hander Carlos Rodón, who had starred for the Giants in 2022, agreed to a $162 million deal with the Yankees. Losing Correa would mean losing out on the 19 highest-paid free agents in a winter during which the Giants expected to spend hundreds of millions of dollars following a disappointing 81-81 finish.

The postponement of the news conference and media tour furthered fears in Correa's camp and garnered attention externally. And the Tuesday-afternoon phone call made it official: When the Giants said they no longer planned to execute the agreed-upon contract, it rendered Correa a free agent again.
Correa did not intend to sit idly waiting for a new contract offer from them. Time was of the essence, and more than 2,000 miles away, Steve Cohen was champing at the bit to make him a Met.

----------------

The Mets, meanwhile, were in deal mode. Cohen and Eppler spoke on Eppler's drive home from the office and agreed to connect with Boras. They wanted to understand why the Giants had failed Correa. Boras' explanation was satisfactory enough to continue talking. Boras sought a deal of 12 years at an average annual value similar to the $26.9 million in the original San Francisco offer. The Mets balked.

But a Correa-Mets union was too appealing for Cohen to play hardball -- especially after his wife, Alex, a die-hard Mets fan whose father, Ralph Garcia, regularly attended games at Citi Field even through the leanest years, advocated for him to sign Correa. Cohen and Eppler kept talking. They texted with Boras. They spoke again. It was past midnight for Eppler, 9 p.m. for Boras, 7 p.m. for Cohen. Correa occasionally came into Boras' room, where he was staked out with lieutenants Mike Fiore, Tyler Beckstrom and Luis Garcia, and rubbed Boras' shoulders. "I'm good," Correa said. "Do your thing."

The deal zone was nigh. The Mets were about $10 million shy of where Cohen and Eppler believed they needed to go. Cohen, now at dinner, said he could push it across the finish line. And for a million dollars a year more, Eppler was on board. They would offer $315 million over 12 years -- and Correa would be their new starting third baseman, a shift that, unlike most shortstops reluctant to be moved off the marquee position, didn't bother him.

Around 11 p.m. PT, they agreed on contract terms. About 30 minutes later, the particulars -- a full no-trade clause, no opt-outs -- were finalized. And at 11:38 p.m. -- 2:38 a.m. on the East Coast -- 10 or so hours after Correa's deal with the Giants disintegrated, the New York Post reported the biggest shocker of a winter full of them: Carlos Correa was in agreement with the Mets. Pending physical, of course.

Correa celebrated by tackling Boras and tossing him on the bed in the room. Correa couldn't help himself. The disillusionment of 30 hours earlier had melted into bliss.

------------------

At the St. Regis, the entire Correa crew woke up rested. Boras, who had plowed through three bags of throat lozenges while spending most of the previous two evenings on the phone, had finally recharged himself. He was greeted that morning by Correa, his wife, Daniella, and the rest of the family with hugs. Correa's 1-year-old son, Kylo, managed to give him a high-five. Correa decamped to Houston for a day and is expected to be in New York on Thursday, when he'll start the physical process that's expected to end Friday. As natural as the fear of another failure may be, the fact that Cohen spoke on the record about the deal to the Post indicates that he's every bit as comfortable with Correa's leg and back as he is his glove and bat.

The Giants, meanwhile, put out a statement at 9:43 a.m., this one slightly more verbose than the one a day prior. The team can't say much, on account of HIPAA laws that prevent it from discussing medical matters of players not under contract, but addressed the events of the previous 24 hours.

"While we are prohibited from disclosing confidential medical information, as Scott Boras stated publicly," said the statement, attributed to Zaidi, "there was a difference of opinion over the results of Carlos' physical examination. We wish Carlos the best."

Correa, meanwhile, thinks he's already found it. On a day that looked dire, in a situation that screamed no-win, he landed on the best-case outcome: with a team in the running for the best in the division, in a city many call the best baseball town in America, with an owner whose desire to be the best is now unequivocal.

https://archive.ph/O8r4n#selection-16321.0-16321.78


Great read
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 9:22 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
What does this mean for Bauer's future in MLB?

Because of that compromise, Bauer will be eligible to pitch on Opening Day. As of now, he remains under contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the final season of a three-year, $102 million contract he signed before the 2021 season. Regardless of whether the Dodgers roster Bauer next year, they will owe him about $22.5 million of his original $32 million salary -- unless he signs with another team, which would be on the hook for $720,000, the major league minimum salary.


Looks like he'll only cost $720k to another team, so maybe another team might be willing to give us $1M for him? That's not much, but at least it's $1M off the CBT for us.

Quote:
What does this mean for the Dodgers?

The first question for the Dodgers is simple: Do they bring back Bauer or release him? They have given no indication publicly on what they intend to do -- the team in a statement Thursday night said it would comment "as soon as practical" -- but a number of players in the Dodgers' clubhouse have privately advocated for the team to cut ties, regardless of the outcome of his appeal. The Dodgers must decide whether to roster or cut Bauer by Jan. 6.


According to ESPN (via Baseball Prospectus), we're way under the $233M threshold:

Quote:
In terms of Bauer's salary impact, the arbitrator's decision did alleviate some of the pressure on the Dodgers' competitive balance tax. Currently, according to Baseball Prospectus, Los Angeles' estimated CBT payroll for the 2023 season is $199 million. Bauer's salary for a full season was supposed to count for $34 million -- the average annual value of his deal -- toward the Dodgers' CBT number.

But by docking Bauer for 50 games of pay, a source said, the arbitrator reduced the Dodgers' luxury tax burden by nearly $9.5 million. That would keep them under the $233 million threshold, which they would have exceeded at Bauer's full salary.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35307636/trevor-bauer-mlb-suspension-reduction-dodgers


$199M + Bauers $22.5M = $221.5M.

This sounds too good to be true. Wonder why there are conflicting financial numbers regarding our actual current payroll.

Spotrac breaks it down like this:

Quote:
Players under contract right now (CBT numbers):

Freeman - $25.8M
Betts - $25.5M
Bauer - $22.5M
Kershaw - $20M
Taylor - $15M
Muncy - $13.5M
Syndergaard - $13M
JD Martinez - $10M
Treinen - $8M
Hudson - $6.5M
Barnes - $3.5M
Shelby Miller - $1.5M

Total - $164.8M

Estimated Arbitration: $39.8M

Estimated Pre-Arbitration: $8M

Estimated Player Benefits: $16.5M

Estimated Minor League Contracts: $2.2M

Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool Contribution: $1.7M

Total: $233.1M


Yeah, looks like right on the money. I don't know why there's so many different numbers out there. But assuming we're right at $233.1M, then even trading Bauer for $1M helps us out alot.
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2022 4:28 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
Free agent reliever Craig Kimbrel and the Philadelphia Phillies are in agreement on a one-year, $10 million contract, sources confirmed to ESPN's Jeff Passan.


Dude keeps getting paid, amazing.
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2022 5:23 pm    Post subject:

The price to trade for a center fielder was just established:

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The Toronto Blue Jays and Arizona Diamondbacks completed a trade Friday that sent outfielder Daulton Varsho to Toronto for top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr..


Varsho has 4 arbitration years left. He had a .735 ops with a 4.9 WAR. Seems like he plays excellent defense.

Moreno was the no. 1 prospect in baseball 4 months ago:

Quote:
Gabriel Moreno is now ranked as Baseball America’s top prospect

July 27, 2022

There’s a new top prospect in baseball.

Baseball America released an updated Top 100 Prospects list on Wednesday and Gabriel Moreno was ranked No. 1.

Last time around, Moreno was ranked as Baseball America’s No. 5 prospect, but a few of the players in front of him have since graduated, so he’s made the jump to the top of the list.

The last time the Blue Jays had a player rank No. 1 on Baseball America’s list was, of course, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ahead of the 2019 season. He was a unanimous No. 1 prospect, as he topped Baseball America’s list as well as the lists put out by Baseball Prospectus and MLB Pipeline.


Quote:
via Baseball America:

As Moreno now has a clear path to everyday opportunities in 2023. The top catching prospect in the game Moreno is an advanced receiver with a plus throwing arm, and a contact over power approach that’s seen him produce .300 or better averages at every level. Moreno is a .315 career MiLB hitter and he bettered that, hitting .319, in his MLB debut in 2022.

Due to Moreno’s conservative approach his ability to tap into his above-average raw power is capped. Alterations to get more aggressive could unlock more game power, something he showed in a very injury-limited 2021 season.

In 2021 Moreno hit eight home runs and slugged .675 in 32 games at Double-A. This year he hit only three home runs and slugged .420 in 67 games at Triple-A Buffalo. He added one more home run in 25 MLB games.

He will not be Rookie of the Year eligible, as he exceeded rookie limits last season based on active days on the roster. A potential franchise catcher in the making, the D-Backs now have four of the top 25 prospects in baseball.


Gurriel Jr also had a 2.2 WAR last year, and a 2.8 WAR in 2021. So the price for Reynolds won't be cheap.
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2022 8:03 pm    Post subject:

Dodgers management is going bonkers... it's stupid.

they get an ace back, then tell the whole world they plan on releasing him... all for the sake of PR.

Dodgers management need to show some balls, the optics right now is that they are spineless cowards.
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2022 8:03 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
^
We won't be able to trade him. The entire league knows that we are just going to release him. No leverage.


Id hate to see another team like the padres or mets get an all star arm on the Dodgers nickel …. Just keep him and not play him perhaps or give him a second chance like others have
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2022 8:27 pm    Post subject:

JerryWest_44 wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
^
We won't be able to trade him. The entire league knows that we are just going to release him. No leverage.


Id hate to see another team like the padres or mets get an all star arm on the Dodgers nickel …. Just keep him and not play him perhaps or give him a second chance like others have


It's impossible to keep him but not play him. We'd have to either:

1) Put him on the active 26 man roster but not play him, or
2) Come up with bogus injuries to put him on the IL

He doesn't have any options left so we can't send him down to the minors.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 24, 2022 2:57 am    Post subject:

JerryWest_44 wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
^
We won't be able to trade him. The entire league knows that we are just going to release him. No leverage.


Id hate to see another team like the padres or mets get an all star arm on the Dodgers nickel …. Just keep him and not play him perhaps or give him a second chance like others have


And you know some rival contending team will likely take a chance on him at such a low salary. Bauer will also be really amped up after all this time off and being suspended - all while playing for his next contract.

I understand why releasing him to avoid the PR nightmare and for also not disrupting the clubhouse, but I have a sinking feeling if the Dodgers release him, they will likely regret it when it comes to the on-field result.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 24, 2022 6:00 am    Post subject:

Quote:
Executives Believe Shohei Ohtani Could Be First $500M Player

If Shohei Ohtani hits free agency next offseason, many Major League executives believe the two-way superstar will sign a record contract.

Given how much teams have spent on stars this offseason, some executives believe Ohtani will receive baseball's first $500 million deal.

"11 times 50 = $550 million," one executive told Jon Heyman. "Sounds crazy, but he has the ability to consistently be a 9/10 WAR player."
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 24, 2022 9:02 am    Post subject:

This is one wild story.

Quote:
It’s the physical. Again.

The New York Mets, like the San Francisco Giants earlier in the week, have raised concerns about Carlos Correa’s surgically repaired lower right leg, potentially jeopardizing their 12-year, $315 million agreement with the star shortstop, according to people briefed on the matter who were not authorized to speak publicly.

The parties could agree to a restructured contract if the Mets continue to express reservations about the long-term stability of Correa’s leg. It might be difficult for the Mets to back out of the agreement entirely after their owner, Steve Cohen, went on record talking about the deal. It also might be difficult for Correa to re-enter the free-agent market and land a comparable contract after two clubs identified the same issue in their physical examinations of him.

The new developments are the latest twist in a saga that shocked the baseball world when Correa and his agent, Scott Boras, pivoted Wednesday from their original 13-year, $350 million agreement with the Giants to strike a separate deal with the Mets.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 25, 2022 8:13 am    Post subject:

Not gonna lie, it kinda irks me that Bauer got a multi-million dollar Christmas present, pretty much just before Christmas.
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 25, 2022 10:52 am    Post subject:

Carlos Correa to the Dodgers?
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 25, 2022 12:15 pm    Post subject:

JerryWest_44 wrote:
Carlos Correa to the Dodgers?


Sign and trade for Bauer. Villain for villain.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 26, 2022 8:01 am    Post subject:

Drifts wrote:
Dodgers management is going bonkers... it's stupid.

they get an ace back, then tell the whole world they plan on releasing him... all for the sake of PR.

Dodgers management need to show some balls, the optics right now is that they are spineless cowards.


Yup. This reeks Buss family after the CP3 veto. Nothing, nada, just bending over and taking it with a smile.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 26, 2022 8:24 am    Post subject:

SGV-Laker fan wrote:
Drifts wrote:
Dodgers management is going bonkers... it's stupid.

they get an ace back, then tell the whole world they plan on releasing him... all for the sake of PR.

Dodgers management need to show some balls, the optics right now is that they are spineless cowards.


Yup. This reeks Buss family after the CP3 veto. Nothing, nada, just bending over and taking it with a smile.


You know a team would snatch him up in a hurry and not even worry about the PR. Unfortunately the Dodgers are worried about the optics of an era gone by.
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unleasHell
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 26, 2022 12:41 pm    Post subject:

Looks to me like the Dodgers will NOT lead the division next season, the Padres will....
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 26, 2022 3:12 pm    Post subject:

unleasHell wrote:
Looks to me like the Dodgers will NOT lead the division next season, the Padres will....


Fans counting out the Dodgers before Spring Training has even started.
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