Russian invasion of Ukraine discussion
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leor_77
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 10:51 am    Post subject:

Hearing rumors that Russia just struck Poland with missiles.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 10:58 am    Post subject:

leor_77 wrote:
Hearing rumors that Russia just struck Poland with missiles.


Russia Mounts Missile Strike Near Polish Border

LINK
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:22 pm    Post subject:

Russian missiles kill two people in Poland.

Damn.........................................................................
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:31 pm    Post subject:

MSNBC
https://youtu.be/0nPvIOT9D-s
(Zelenskyy Should Talk To Putin: ‘When You’re Winning Is When You Use Diplomacy’: Gen. McCaffrey)

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MSNBC Military Analyst retired four star Army General Barry McCaffrey joins Andrea Mitchell to assess the state of the war in Ukraine amid a push by many world leaders at the G20 summit for an end to the Russia’s violence. “I think it's clear that Ukraine is winning,” says McCaffrey. “This is a fight to the death and the Russians are doing very badly.” He adds that Zelenskyy “ought to be talking to Putin,” because “when you're winning is when you use diplomacy. So I hope he does reach out to the Russians, and get not just a ceasefire, but some end game in sight.”
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:33 pm    Post subject:

Reports of possible Russian missiles hitting Polish village raise NATO alarm

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:43 pm    Post subject:

Voice of America
https://youtu.be/1FQFplpQas8
(Ukraine War Sets Off Migration Wave of Russian Jews to Israel | VOANews)

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The Israeli so-called Law of Return says that anyone with one Jewish grandparent can immigrate to Israel and receive Israeli citizenship. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to draft 300,000 men to fight in the war against Ukraine has prompted thousands of Russians to move to Israel, with tens of thousands of others on the way. Linda Gradstein reports from Ben Gurion airport near Tel Aviv. VOA footage by Ricki Rosen.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:57 pm    Post subject:

MSNBC
https://youtu.be/mKlA97CiMEg
(U.S. Officials Cannot Confirm Reports Of Poland Missile Incident)

Quote:
U.S. officials cannot confirm the details of a reported missile incident inside Poland or if Russia was involved. NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Molly Hunter report.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:00 pm    Post subject:

CNN
https://youtu.be/-0SAFfGzm-8
(Rockets or missiles reported to have landed in Poland near Ukrainian border)

Quote:
Two missiles or rockets are reported to have hit a farm in Poland, near the border with Ukraine. Two people are reported killed and it’s unclear where the projectiles came from. CNN Senior International Correspondent Sam Kiley reports.
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Buck32
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:45 pm    Post subject:

FernieBee wrote:
CNN
https://youtu.be/-0SAFfGzm-8
(Rockets or missiles reported to have landed in Poland near Ukrainian border)

Quote:
Two missiles or rockets are reported to have hit a farm in Poland, near the border with Ukraine. Two people are reported killed and it’s unclear where the projectiles came from. CNN Senior International Correspondent Sam Kiley reports.


Putin is obviously testing how far he can go with NATO. He's losing badly against Ukraine so he's counting on the threat of escalation in Europe forcing Western leaders to pressure Ukraine to accept Russia's terms for stopping the war.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:55 pm    Post subject:

Buck32 wrote:
FernieBee wrote:
CNN
https://youtu.be/-0SAFfGzm-8
(Rockets or missiles reported to have landed in Poland near Ukrainian border)

Quote:
Two missiles or rockets are reported to have hit a farm in Poland, near the border with Ukraine. Two people are reported killed and it’s unclear where the projectiles came from. CNN Senior International Correspondent Sam Kiley reports.


Putin is obviously testing how far he can go with NATO. He's losing badly against Ukraine so he's counting on the threat of escalation in Europe forcing Western leaders to pressure Ukraine to accept Russia's terms for stopping the war.


I posted in another thread that the worst thing Putin can do is escalate to NATO involvement. He'll catch two bullets to the base of the skull before he can get his hands out of his pockets to push the nuclear buttons.

The main thing the past 8.5 months have shown is that Russia will get waxed quickly in a conventional war vs. NATO, and there is a high degree of probability that most of their nuclear arsenal won't work.

ADDENDUM: I bet the Poles cannot wait to kick some Russian ass.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 4:19 pm    Post subject:

Dr. Laker wrote:
and there is a high degree of probability that most of their nuclear arsenal won't work.


I made the same point to my brother, a few months ago.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 4:34 pm    Post subject:

FernieBee wrote:
Dr. Laker wrote:
and there is a high degree of probability that most of their nuclear arsenal won't work.


I made the same point to my brother, a few months ago.



I just recently came to this belief after reading how much maintenance nuclear weapons require. Even using solid fueled rockets, just the warheads alone need regular upkeep and periodic rebuilding/part replacement.

MAINTAINING THE STOCKPILE

Quote:
NNSA continually assesses and evaluates each nuclear weapon to determine its reliability and to detect and anticipate any potential issues that may result from aging, from concept to production to retirement. These activities allow NNSA to meet today’s military and national security requirements. Each different weapon type in the U.S. nuclear stockpile requires routine maintenance, periodic repair, replacement of limited life components, and surveillance (a thorough examination of a weapon) in order to ensure continued safety, security, and effectiveness and other support activities as necessary.


https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57240#:~:text=The%20estimate%20of%20%24634%20billion,period%20(see%20Table%202).

Quote:
Over the 2021–2030 period, the plans for nuclear forces specified in DoD’s and DOE’s 2021 budget requests, submitted to the Congress in February 2020, would cost a total of $634 billion, CBO estimates (see Table 1).


No way the Russians are spending a tenth of that - and their arsenal is bigger.
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jonnybravo
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 4:57 pm    Post subject:

Obviously I don't want us to find out for sure but as soon as reports came out that Russia's equipment was dog poo and falling apart, I felt the same thing about their nuclear arsenal. I can't imagine that any more than a fraction of them are 100% functional.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 5:29 pm    Post subject:

BBC
https://youtu.be/GWhao1gUXp0
(Claims of Russian missile strike on Poland trigger NATO emergency talks - BBC News)

Quote:
It’s reported that Russian missiles have landed in Poland near its border with Ukraine, killing two people on a farm.

It came on a day that Russia launched a mass wave of missile attacks across Ukraine.

Russia dismissed claims that it was responsible for the missile strike in Poland, calling them "a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation".

The US and other international powers said they were investigating and did not immediately attribute blame.

The Polish government has been holding emergency talks and said it was putting some military units on heightened alert.

If the missiles are confirmed to be Russian, it would mark the first time its missiles had landed on the territory of a Nato member, raising the question of how the security alliance would respond.

There has been speculation that the strikes in Poland could be due to a missile malfunction, or the result of Ukraine’s air defence systems knocking a Russian missile off course.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Moscow of deliberately attacking Poland and demanded a tough NATO response.

Huw Edwards presents BBC News at Ten reporting by Jeremy Bowen in Ukraine and Steve Rosenberg in Moscow.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 6:03 pm    Post subject:

Interesting. Speaking about the rocket that landed in Poland, Biden just said that based on preliminary evidence of its trajectory, it is unlikely that it came from Russia. So whether he meant to say it is unlikely it did, or he meant that it didn’t, that’s not going to go well.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 6:07 pm    Post subject:

MSNBC
https://youtu.be/Ue7O-sjG61g
(War Crimes Prosecutor On How To Catch A Dictator)

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Author and distinguished war crimes prosecutor Reed Brody joins Morning Joe to discuss his new book 'To Catch a Dictator: The Pursuit and Trial of Hissène Habré.' Habré was the former President of Chad, and he was convicted of crimes against humanity, war crimes, and torture.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:07 pm    Post subject:

ABC News
https://youtu.be/7m_FN1BhBBg
(Poland says Russian-made missile landed in its territory, killing two)

Quote:
Two people are dead after Poland says a Russian-made missile hit a rural area, near the border with Ukraine. The Pentagon said it is aware of the reports but has no information to corroborate them.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:08 pm    Post subject:

ABC News
https://youtu.be/_jgYn0VYgZg
(Biden speaks after emergency roundtable on missile hit in Poland)

Quote:
The president stated, “We agree to support Poland’s investigation into the explosion in rural Poland."
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:47 pm    Post subject:

MSNBC
https://youtu.be/2Ij_lXUI8mE
(Poland Says Russian-Made Missile Hit, Killing Two)

Quote:
NATO member Poland says a Russian-made missile hit a town a few miles from the Ukraine border, killing two people. Now, NATO is holding an emergency meeting in Brussels Wednesday. It comes as Russia unleashed a series of airstrikes across Ukraine. Plus, twice-impeached President Trump announces his 2024 bid.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2022 6:35 am    Post subject:

CNN
https://youtu.be/YpfOTUgLijw
(US intelligence believes Ukraine fired missile that landed in Poland)

Quote:
Two officials briefed on initial US assessments said it appears the missile that killed two people in eastern Poland Wednesday originated in Ukraine, even though it was Russian made.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2022 6:47 am    Post subject:

Guardian News
https://youtu.be/8OrNLzoCc3g
(Polish missile strike ‘likely caused by Ukraine but not Ukraine’s fault’, says Stoltenberg)

Quote:
Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said the missile, which struck Poland on Tuesday killing two people, was probably caused by Ukraine, but it was not Ukraine's fault. Speaking on Wednesday at a press conference in Brussels, Stoltenberg said there were no indications the missile was the consequence of a deliberate attack from Russia
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:02 am    Post subject:

ABC News
https://youtu.be/GyAQ_MRO_pY
(Polish president: Missile that hit Poland was an 'unfortunate accident' l ABCNL)

Quote:
The Polish president’s statement is helping to de-escalate tensions after the blast was initially thought to come from a Russian attack.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:32 am    Post subject:

CNN
https://youtu.be/FjuS8tJXIkg
('Ultimately it is Russia's fault': Retired Brig. Gen. Kimmitt on Poland missile)

Quote:
Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt (Ret.) joins CNN Newsroom to discuss the missile that killed two people in eastern Poland. The missile was likely fired by Ukrainian forces defending against a wave of Russian missile strikes, Polish President Andrzej Duda said.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:14 pm    Post subject:

CNN
https://youtu.be/m313YnbWU1U
(Pentagon gives update after missile hits Poland)

Quote:
The US has seen no information so far that contradicts Polish President Andrzej Duda’s “preliminary assessment” that the explosion in Poland that left two dead “was most likely the result of a Ukrainian defense missile,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said at a press conference at the Pentagon. “Whatever the final conclusions may be, the world knows that Russia bears ultimately responsibility for this incident,” Austin added.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:33 pm    Post subject:

Dr. Laker wrote:


No way the Russians are spending a tenth of that - and their arsenal is bigger.


I saw a submarine doc not too long ago and they claimed in the 1980s that the US's fleet knew where all of the Soviet's fleet were at any given time. They supposedly pinged every Soviet sub simultaneously once to let them know their position was known and the Soviets subsequently retreated to the Arctic area. That would include their boomer subs w/ MIRV missiles. Makes you wonder how effective those platforms are being that they're the most destructive ever known. If they're this discombobulated in land warfare against a small nation w/ meager assistance from the US, it must make the US reassess years worth of intelligence and assumptions. It was known in the 60s/70s that the US had hundreds more functional nukes than the USSR, too. Or at least that realization came about after the Cold War. They benefit mightily merely from the specter of having nuclear capability (even if practical issues make the threat theoretical). I guess that will continue to be the case even w/ a KGB meathead leveraging that threat for all it's worth, but as far as conventional warfare, we're seeing a real life example of The Wolverines beating back a Red Dawn.
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