Can Gaston Reaves make the leap next season?
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TooMuchMajicBuss
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PostPosted: Sat May 14, 2022 2:03 pm    Post subject:

I agree with most here. I like Reaves, I also think he can be a solid rotational 2 way player.

Starter? Not so sure. Maybe, or situational starter if he adds more strength and works on his shot a bit. As for comparisons; he's not as athletic as Caruso, who could dunk on centers when they slept on him, but Caruso clearly preferred defense. Austin's more assertive on offense while still playing solid defense.

The qualities that are uncommonly good for Reaves are his quick thinking, intelligent play, and constant hustle on both ends of the court. Really good combination, he's already a headache for opponents some nights and could make himself a much bigger headache every night with more experience.

I don't see him as the kind of guy who starts on a title team but he could surprise me. I do see him as the kind of key support player a title contender needs to have in its rotation.
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PostPosted: Sat May 14, 2022 2:33 pm    Post subject:

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I don't see him as the kind of guy who starts on a title team


I do, pretty easily.
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PostPosted: Sat May 14, 2022 8:38 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
When did Draymond Green make his leap?

Marc Gasol?

Ben Wallace?


When did Smush Parker make his leap? Kwame Brown? Luke Walton?

I’m being facetious about those guys, obviously. The point is that a lot of guys don’t ever make much of a leap. For every Ben Wallace, there are a dozen Chris Mihms. When I look at Austin Reaves, I see a guy who hustles and brings energy. That’s a good thing. But I also see a guy without special athleticism. I’m glad we got him. I wouldn’t count on him becoming Draymond Green, though.


It just sounds like you rule out improvement leaps based on age.

Frankly, there's a lot of reasons guys don't improve much once they're in the L, but I never think that Reaves has felt like he "made it" and "will settle down since he made it."

Can't say the same of the aforementioned guys you listed.


That's a narrative, not a projection. You've always had a tendency to fall in love with young players. That's cool. But Reaves is still a guy who is about to turn 24, wasn't drafted, and doesn't have special athleticism. Can he get better? Sure. Is he likely to make a "leap"? No.

When you talk about improvement leaps based on age, I don't buy it for someone like Reaves. He is already a full grown man who is a year or two away from his physical peak. We aren't talking about a 19 year old who is still growing into his body. Reaves isn't going to get better just because he's a year older. He can work out, practice, etc. He can make himself better. But he's past the point at which he is going to make a leap based on age.
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PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2022 7:24 am    Post subject:

Honestly he does enough things well, and has the smarts.
Improving his shot and getting physically stronger would make him a bonafide starter.

But those are 2 things that take work. And it's a tbd.
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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2022 12:55 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
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I don't see him as the kind of guy who starts on a title team


I do, pretty easily.


I hope you're right!

Particularly if the Lakers hang on to him of course.
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PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2022 10:23 am    Post subject:

Of course Reeves can…but if any of our championship aspirations plan for it we are most likely doomed. Reeves’ development to a regular rotation player should be a pleasant surprise as a bonus to another plan, not part of an initial primary plan.

At 24 Reeves most likely already is what he is going to be with the best case scenario imo is more consistency, perhaps a result where we look at this past season’s performance and throw out his worse 25% of performances and look at the avg of what’s left and expect that to be the most realistic optimistic productivity.

I want to keep Reeves, Johnson, and Gabriel, as somewhat like draft pics since we will be limited with pics. As a replacement to pics and young talent I want us to hold onto those three players and develop them like we would develop drafted players. I like Reeves on the team in that role.

A bit off topic but in order to clarify the role I envision for Reeves;
I want to also keep Dwight, Melo, and Bradley and have those 6 (DH, Melo, AB, Gabe, Stan J, Au Re) as the 10th thru 15th players on the roster.

I don’t believe we should plan on using Reeves next year in regular rotation if we expect to be a championship contender. In order to compete for a championship (all that matters to me now with AD and LBJ on the team) we need to flip WB, THT, Nunn and 2 FRPs for 5 or 6 players to go with LBJ, AD, Monk as the core relied upon to win games as a championship contender.
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PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2022 3:52 am    Post subject:

Reaves would have been a rotation guy and occasional starter ala Caruso with the way we used to run things. With a new coach and system coming in, not sure. The coach may prioritize playing off Lebron or Westbrook so 3 point shooting and being able to have some athleticism to get above the rim wins you points.

It's hard for me to say because we're going to be making some big changes. But based on his rookie year and assuming things had stayed the same - easily I see him as a guy that could have earned himself a Caruso type of career.
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PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2022 5:39 am    Post subject:

Quote:
You've always had a tendency to fall in love with young players.


Because they're more advanced in terms of skills by age, not the projection of the future skills due to age.

But this also doesn't explain why I've liked Josh Hart, Reaves, Ayayi, Trevelin Queen...

Quote:
But he's past the point at which he is going to make a leap based on age.


There's a lot more to leaps than physical development in regards to athleticism.
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PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2022 6:15 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
You've always had a tendency to fall in love with young players.


Because they're more advanced in terms of skills by age, not the projection of the future skills due to age.

But this also doesn't explain why I've liked Josh Hart, Reaves, Ayayi, Trevelin Queen...

Quote:
But he's past the point at which he is going to make a leap based on age.


There's a lot more to leaps than physical development in regards to athleticism.


The first part doesn't make sense. You like to track college players and analyze the draft and such. That's fine. You do a good job of it. But you do often fall in love with the guys you analyze. You know this. There's nothing wrong with it, but sometimes (in fact, quite often) the young prospects never turn into anything. You know this, too.

The second part is a rationalization. The biggest reason why the one-and-dones sometimes make big leaps is physical development, and secondarily they are still learning to play the game. Brandon Ingram is an example of this. In the case of Reaves, he's a grown man who spent five years in college. He's not likely to make a physical leap, and he is not likely to make a skills leap. This is not to say that he can't get better. I'll never say that a young player can't get better. But if you're expecting Reaves to make a genuine leap at 24, that's just not likely.
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PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2022 6:37 am    Post subject:

Quote:
The first part doesn't make sense.


It does to me. Some people prefer younger basketball players, simply because they're young, in the hopes of refining their skills at the NBA level.

OTOH, some young players have a more refined skills, whether or not you know their age. If they happen to be younger, then better.

Quote:
The second part is a rationalization. The biggest reason why the one-and-dones sometimes make big leaps is physical development, and secondarily they are still learning to play the game. Brandon Ingram is an example of this. In the case of Reaves, he's a grown man who spent five years in college. He's not likely to make a physical leap, and he is not likely to make a skills leap. This is not to say that he can't get better. I'll never say that a young player can't get better. But if you're expecting Reaves to make a genuine leap at 24, that's just not likely.


No. The reason why *some* one and dones leave for the league is also because they're skilled and while NBA fans prefer to see more upside, sometimes it isn't there. That doesn't mean that when they play, they aren't important players. Elton Brand, Ben Simmons, Lamar Odom. It was assumed they'd leap. They didn't. Same game. The just got bigger and handled physicality better. But they were all skilled enough at age 19 to have long careers too.

That's what I mean by skills by age.

I'm not *expecting* Reaves to make a leap. That's the assumption on your part. I just simply don't rule it out, especially considering by age, he's quite skilled in multiple areas, not just a shooter, and not just a defender, but skills within those defined areas.

Honestly, his leap would include motion shooting along with strength, and he'd cause problems. That doesn't have to do with a giant vertical or outrageous quickness. But that's a skill that gave Duncan Robinson a $20mil contract and an NBA career. Add that ability to what Reaves has? Yeah, he'd cause problems.
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Last edited by Mike@LG on Fri May 20, 2022 6:41 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2022 6:40 am    Post subject:

The one area of Reaves I'm intrigued by, and we haven't really tapped into is his PG skills. IIRC he played PG quite a bit in college, and on the Lakers, he's more pigeonholed into a 3/D role, and sort of secondary playmaker ala Draymond in the half court. I would like to see him over summer league, get more reps as a lead ball handler to see what he can do on that end. If he's able to contribute as a guy who can do that, opens up quite a few roles for him on this team.
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PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2022 6:46 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
The one area of Reaves I'm intrigued by, and we haven't really tapped into is his PG skills. IIRC he played PG quite a bit in college, and on the Lakers, he's more pigeonholed into a 3/D role, and sort of secondary playmaker ala Draymond in the half court. I would like to see him over summer league, get more reps as a lead ball handler to see what he can do on that end. If he's able to contribute as a guy who can do that, opens up quite a few roles for him on this team.

We did allow him to run the offense quite a bit the last 2 games. Vogel was pleased. He's pretty much that glue guy if you have all the other integral pieces in place.

Issue with our team last year (Beating dead horse) we didn't have the pieces. We had way too many guys that needed the ball (Bron, WB, THT, Reaves) and not enough guys that would do what KCP, Kuz, Caruso would do. So when you had even a guy like Reaves you'd never really know what sort of glue guy role he could provide in that right situation. We saw some glimpses for sure, but not concrete enough stuff.

What I'm concerned about is how the new coaching staff views him. Not a lot of coaches give guys like Reaves a lot of PT, you usually need coaches that value those things above the typical requirements of players his size/age.

Lets see, I'm hopeful he is put in position to thrive as that 5th starter or off the bench glue guy, buy I don't trust the roster construction (Nor know the new coaching staff) to get that. We could have probably been in a much better position longterm if we just let THT/Reaves run the backcourt all season long. Still end up with 33sh wins, but at least you brought along two guys that will be back next year and could be longterm role players for you. Instead you wasted on WB further advancing his career stats.
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PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2022 6:53 am    Post subject:

If the new coaching staff doesn't view him as a positive on both ends of the floor, they're not going to win.
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PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2022 7:00 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
If the new coaching staff doesn't view him as a positive on both ends of the floor, they're not going to win.

The thing we don't know yet is what the coaching staff views Lebron/Westbrook as. Vogel viewed the team as Lebron being the primary PG/QB but with a lot of helping/facilitating guards around him. Before the WB trade, there was a lot more multi-facet playmaking that got lost into WB/Bron take turns this past year. Before the WB trade, we had Bron, Dennis, THT, Caruso all take turns in playmaking. This was something say if you used Reaves instaed of Dennis this year, you could have really reaped some benefit of.

I think Reaves would do very well in what we used to play like, but no idea if we will revert or continue to try and make the WB/Lebron thing work. Based on coaching interviews and what I've read, if we continue on the same path, I can't see a new coach think Reaves will be a reliable 3nD wing. That's what we need really around AD/Bron/3rd star. I personally hope we abandon this 3 star model and get back to what won us a ring, but based on what I've read, I don't think so.

Reaves is a guy that I think in some situations would be exceptionally good. I was tracking his impact, and at the start of the season when we had a healthy AD, we were doing very well with him in the lineup. He is an impact guy, in the right situation. I just don't like his chances if we continue with the 3 star model. If you build your team around 3 stars, you need players that will defend at a higher level than Reaves as well as better shooting, athleticism etc.
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PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2022 7:21 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
No. The reason why *some* one and dones leave for the league is also because they're skilled and while NBA fans prefer to see more upside, sometimes it isn't there. That doesn't mean that when they play, they aren't important players. Elton Brand, Ben Simmons, Lamar Odom. It was assumed they'd leap. They didn't. Same game. The just got bigger and handled physicality better. But they were all skilled enough at age 19 to have long careers too.


Okay, but all of those guys were top four picks in the first round. I'm not so sure about that analogy.
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PostPosted: Sun May 22, 2022 11:40 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
No. The reason why *some* one and dones leave for the league is also because they're skilled and while NBA fans prefer to see more upside, sometimes it isn't there. That doesn't mean that when they play, they aren't important players. Elton Brand, Ben Simmons, Lamar Odom. It was assumed they'd leap. They didn't. Same game. The just got bigger and handled physicality better. But they were all skilled enough at age 19 to have long careers too.


Okay, but all of those guys were top four picks in the first round. I'm not so sure about that analogy.


Hence, skill set by age. Imagine having the projection of being some form of All-Star or superstar (due to age), but having an incredibly high floor (skillset by age).

That's why they're top 4/lottery picks.

Man, a shame you're not active on twitter. I'm the least age-ist out of all of them, and look at the skill set first above age, where they're from, etc., and just think about *how* they do things in combination with their size/athleticism/processing, not just because they're young.
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PostPosted: Sun May 22, 2022 12:44 pm    Post subject:

Hopefully we see improvements this year.
I wonder if he plays in the summer league.
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PostPosted: Sun May 22, 2022 12:52 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
No. The reason why *some* one and dones leave for the league is also because they're skilled and while NBA fans prefer to see more upside, sometimes it isn't there. That doesn't mean that when they play, they aren't important players. Elton Brand, Ben Simmons, Lamar Odom. It was assumed they'd leap. They didn't. Same game. The just got bigger and handled physicality better. But they were all skilled enough at age 19 to have long careers too.


Okay, but all of those guys were top four picks in the first round. I'm not so sure about that analogy.


Hence, skill set by age. Imagine having the projection of being some form of All-Star or superstar (due to age), but having an incredibly high floor (skillset by age).

That's why they're top 4/lottery picks.

Man, a shame you're not active on twitter. I'm the least age-ist out of all of them, and look at the skill set first above age, where they're from, etc., and just think about *how* they do things in combination with their size/athleticism/processing, not just because they're young.


I'm not following your reasoning. Brand, Simmons, and Odom had size and athleticism. Brand reached the all-NBA level before the injuries wrecked him. Simmons was all-NBA before his mind wrecked him. We'll never know how much drugs affected Odom early in his career.

I'm not sure how any of those cases are relevant in assessing Austin Reaves. There are a fair number of older guys who come to the league with skills that are more advanced than the one-and-dones. A few of those guys manage to become solid NBA players or even borderline stars. No doubt about it. But most of them are already close to their ceiling, and a lot of them are gone in a few years.

Kuzma is a good example of this. If you look at his per-36 numbers and adjust for the change of role in Washington, he's the same player now that he was as a rookie. Could Reaves' career path turn out to be different? Sure. I'll never say that a young player can't get better. But it's more likely that he's close to his ceiling right now.

Oh, and I'd gnaw off my hands before I'd argue with people on Twitter, Reddit, or RealGM.
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PostPosted: Sun May 22, 2022 6:01 pm    Post subject:

Dude will be an all-star
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PostPosted: Mon May 23, 2022 6:13 am    Post subject:

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I'm not following your reasoning. Brand, Simmons, and Odom had size and athleticism. Brand reached the all-NBA level before the injuries wrecked him. Simmons was all-NBA before his mind wrecked him. We'll never know how much drugs affected Odom early in his career.


Then I'm done. If you can't see why it's also skillset by age and not always projected upside, I don't know what else to tell you, especially with the assumption that I prefer younger athletes on age alone.

All this, because you mixed up my ideas of "making improvements" vs "leaps"

I just don't rule it out. Period. Nash wasn't even athletic. He LEAPED. Even Marc Gasol made DPOY.
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PostPosted: Mon May 23, 2022 7:23 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
I'm not following your reasoning. Brand, Simmons, and Odom had size and athleticism. Brand reached the all-NBA level before the injuries wrecked him. Simmons was all-NBA before his mind wrecked him. We'll never know how much drugs affected Odom early in his career.


Then I'm done. If you can't see why it's also skillset by age and not always projected upside, I don't know what else to tell you, especially with the assumption that I prefer younger athletes on age alone.

All this, because you mixed up my ideas of "making improvements" vs "leaps"

I just don't rule it out. Period. Nash wasn't even athletic. He LEAPED. Even Marc Gasol made DPOY.


Okay. I just don't follow your reasoning, but that's fine. I will note that you keep talking about leaps (Ben Wallace, Marc Gasol, Steve Nash), but then say that you aren't talking about leaps. We're talking about Austin Reaves. He would need to make a leap, not just improvements.
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