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ocho
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 Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:59 pm Post subject: |
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| nomoreshaq wrote: | | ocho wrote: | | nomoreshaq wrote: | | what happens if we go 8-2 and russ looks amazing. pull the trigger while his value is high or no? |
I wouldn’t worry about that. |
i'm in a science fiction mood today. just entertain me. if we start off hot, do we assume it is fool's gold and sell russ high or do we convince ourselves that ham solved the impossible puzzle and believe that we're gonna win the chip. |
In this deeply, deeply sci-if scenario I think they’d stand pat.
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lakersfever714
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Joined: 05 Jan 2016
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:01 pm Post subject: |
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| nomoreshaq wrote: | | ocho wrote: | | nomoreshaq wrote: | | what happens if we go 8-2 and russ looks amazing. pull the trigger while his value is high or no? |
I wouldn’t worry about that. |
i'm in a science fiction mood today. just entertain me. if we start off hot, do we assume it is fool's gold and sell russ high or do we convince ourselves that ham solved the impossible puzzle and believe that we're gonna win the chip. |
If a team is winning, no GM is going to make any changes regardless of Brick's performance. Maybe Pelinka is the exception and he just might trade Russ since he was dumb enough to tear up a championship team. |
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miggz23
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Joined: 29 Nov 2018
Posts: 6758
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:06 pm Post subject: |
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| nomoreshaq wrote: | | ocho wrote: | | nomoreshaq wrote: | | what happens if we go 8-2 and russ looks amazing. pull the trigger while his value is high or no? |
I wouldn’t worry about that. |
i'm in a science fiction mood today. just entertain me. if we start off hot, do we assume it is fool's gold and sell russ high or do we convince ourselves that ham solved the impossible puzzle and believe that we're gonna win the chip. |
Lakers first 10 games:
@Warriors
Cllippers
Blazers
@Nuggets
@Wolves
Nuggets
Pelicans
Jazz
Cavaliers
@Jazz
There's higher chance this team starts 0-6... |
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Balto
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Honestly if Russ is balling out and looking great teams might actually stay away because they would rather tank. Of course unless said team just buys him out |
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Rubin
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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| miggz23 wrote: | | nomoreshaq wrote: | | ocho wrote: | | nomoreshaq wrote: | | what happens if we go 8-2 and russ looks amazing. pull the trigger while his value is high or no? |
I wouldn’t worry about that. |
i'm in a science fiction mood today. just entertain me. if we start off hot, do we assume it is fool's gold and sell russ high or do we convince ourselves that ham solved the impossible puzzle and believe that we're gonna win the chip. |
Lakers first 10 games:
@Warriors
Cllippers
Blazers
@Nuggets
@Wolves
Nuggets
Pelicans
Jazz
Cavaliers
@Jazz
There's higher chance this team starts 0-6... |
I think starting 2-8 is far more likely than 8-2…in which case the FO probably panics and does the Indy deal with both unprotected FRP’s.
In your hypothetical scenario though, I imagine they’d stand pat. I don’t see our FO having the balanced, pragmatic perspective needed to see through a couple weeks of fools gold. |
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pjiddy
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Balto wrote: | | Honestly if Russ is balling out and looking great teams might actually stay away because they would rather tank. Of course unless said team just buys him out |
If we start out 2-8 while a tanking team overachieves, maybe Russ’s trade value goes up. |
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Inspector Gadget
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | Inspector Gadget wrote: | | If we start 2-5 or 3-6 out of the gates what chances do you guys give in Pelinka pulling the trigger? |
Good heavens. You're going to root for us to lose, aren't you? |
Laker fan first so I will root for Westbrook to succeed. |
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bluehill
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:52 pm Post subject: |
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I'm interested in how the supporting cast does when it's just AD/Russ or LBJ/Russ or just Russ in these preseason games. Can they hold leads or win games?
Based on past injury history, Russ is the most "consistent," so he's probably going to play the most games. If we're being generous let's say that AD and LBJ will be available for 60 games each this season which is above the number of games that both have played in the last two seasons. Depending on how much of an overlap there is in the games they miss, at most, they would play 60 games together.
So what percentage of games do you think this team can win with AD, LBJ and Russ healthy? 60%? 70%? Split the difference and say 65%. So of the 60 games that they play together allowing for missed games by AD and LBJ, that's 39 wins.
Add to that what you think a Russ only team will be able to win for the remaining 22 games and that looks like the best case scenario in terms of wins.
If there are more games where it's just AD and Russ or LBJ and Russ, then I'm assuming the win percentage is less than it would be with AD, LBJ and Russ. Unless it starts to look like the role players are able to step in the absence of either LeBron or AD. Hopefully we'll get some positive signs in the preseason. |
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activeverb
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:09 pm Post subject: |
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| bluehill wrote: | I'm interested in how the supporting cast does when it's just AD/Russ or LBJ/Russ or just Russ in these preseason games. Can they hold leads or win games?
Based on past injury history, Russ is the most "consistent," so he's probably going to play the most games. If we're being generous let's say that AD and LBJ will be available for 60 games each this season which is above the number of games that both have played in the last two seasons. Depending on how much of an overlap there is in the games they miss, at most, they would play 60 games together.
So what percentage of games do you think this team can win with AD, LBJ and Russ healthy? 60%? 70%? Split the difference and say 65%. So of the 60 games that they play together allowing for missed games by AD and LBJ, that's 39 wins.
Add to that what you think a Russ only team will be able to win for the remaining 22 games and that looks like the best case scenario in terms of wins.
If there are more games where it's just AD and Russ or LBJ and Russ, then I'm assuming the win percentage is less than it would be with AD, LBJ and Russ. Unless it starts to look like the role players are able to step in the absence of either LeBron or AD. Hopefully we'll get some positive signs in the preseason. |
Westbrook, AD, and Lebron weren’t particularly effective playing together last year. They had a winning percentage well under 50%, though granted they didn’t play that many minutes together.
Obviously, the rest of the team has changed, so the previous years statistics aren't necessary meaningful.
But I'd say at this point, guesses about winning percentages of various player combinations are like pulling numbers out of win together. Can AD, Lebron and Westbrook really win 65% of their games?
Probably not -- that percentage would be the third best among all teams last year. But there are way too many X factors for me to make any guesses about winning percentages that aren't just completely random. |
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ContagiousInspiration
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Joined: 07 May 2014
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Location: Boulder ;)
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:19 pm Post subject: |
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Remembering last year.. sigh..
Just didn't know a player could cause as much havoc as him... for his own team
Did Russ steal rebounds last year from his own players to pad his stats and slowing down the game?
Bummed he is still a Laker. Only other sport I might watch is UFC.. shrug.. |
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bluehill
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:42 pm Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | | bluehill wrote: | I'm interested in how the supporting cast does when it's just AD/Russ or LBJ/Russ or just Russ in these preseason games. Can they hold leads or win games?
Based on past injury history, Russ is the most "consistent," so he's probably going to play the most games. If we're being generous let's say that AD and LBJ will be available for 60 games each this season which is above the number of games that both have played in the last two seasons. Depending on how much of an overlap there is in the games they miss, at most, they would play 60 games together.
So what percentage of games do you think this team can win with AD, LBJ and Russ healthy? 60%? 70%? Split the difference and say 65%. So of the 60 games that they play together allowing for missed games by AD and LBJ, that's 39 wins.
Add to that what you think a Russ only team will be able to win for the remaining 22 games and that looks like the best case scenario in terms of wins.
If there are more games where it's just AD and Russ or LBJ and Russ, then I'm assuming the win percentage is less than it would be with AD, LBJ and Russ. Unless it starts to look like the role players are able to step in the absence of either LeBron or AD. Hopefully we'll get some positive signs in the preseason. |
Westbrook, AD, and Lebron weren’t particularly effective playing together last year. They had a winning percentage well under 50%, though granted they didn’t play that many minutes together.
Obviously, the rest of the team has changed, so the previous years statistics aren't necessary meaningful.
But I'd say at this point, guesses about winning percentages of various player combinations are like pulling numbers out of win together. Can AD, Lebron and Westbrook really win 65% of their games?
Probably not -- that percentage would be the third best among all teams last year. But there are way too many X factors for me to make any guesses about winning percentages that aren't just completely random. |
Yeah true. I'm just trying to bound the upper and lower number of wins by making some "reasonable" assumptions. A perfect season is highly unlikely as is as a zero win season, so somewhere in between.
In any case, my roundabout point is those X factors include AD and LeBron's health, Coach Ham, Russ and the new guys. I think AD's/LBJ's health is the biggest factor, to me, so I took that out of the equation by assuming they would play at most 60 games.
I think the biggest unknown is how well the role players do when one of those guys is out. I have no idea how this group will do, so I think that's something to focus on in the preseason and beginning of the regular season. |
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hydrohead
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:57 pm Post subject: |
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I have hope that somewhere near the end of preseason the realization will hit this organization in the face that they need better players around Lebron and AD and they make the Indiana deal.
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Bron2AD
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:12 pm Post subject: |
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| hydrohead wrote: | | I have hope that somewhere near the end of preseason the realization will hit this organization in the face that they need better players around Lebron and AD and they make the Indiana deal. |
Those players are not hield and Myles Turner |
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mad55557777
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Joined: 29 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:25 pm Post subject: |
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| This is going to be the mother of all tanking years. If I am the spurs or the jazz, I’d trade anyone that plays well in the first half. |
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nomoreshaq
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:28 pm Post subject: |
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| what do you think about allowing up to 5 teams per conference to opt to "tank" every season. if you opt to tank, then you are disqualified from the playoffs no matter what and you can amnesty up to 5 players on your roster and you get an extra FRP (picks 31-35 based on being randomly selected) |
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vasashi17+
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BILBJH
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Joined: 23 Jul 2020
Posts: 5119
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:45 pm Post subject: |
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We're gonna be stuck with LeStatpad another three years after he sees Wembanyama.
He'll see someone who might actually be able to break his scoring record and want to score another 10k. |
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vasashi17+
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:51 pm Post subject: |
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From the Fischer pod, where Buha joined him to speak on the Lakers/Indy deal…(spoiler alert: it was supposedly on the 1 yard line)
| Quote: | Buha:
“To my knowledge and the knowledge of [myself, Amick and Charania] as a group, it was at the one-yard line internally. There was no formal request or reach out to the Pacers... There were several internal meetings about this at one point... There were several hours there where we were hearing that it was essentially agreed upon internally that ‘we are going to propose this to Indiana. And all summer, in all of our iterations of trade talks with Indiana, their one ask has been we want both picks.’ And even if it was Myles by himself or Buddy, it always came back to they want two picks for any Russ trade.
“So the Lakers, with that knowledge, were having that kind of internal struggle of ‘is it worth going all in for this deal? Does it elevate us enough?’ And there was some split between members of the key decision makers of ‘yes it’s worth it,’ and ‘no it’s not,’ but I think temporarily they came to a consensus of ‘yes’ and that is when there was a point during the weekend where I thought it was a formality that this was going to happen, but ultimately there was some pushback at the one-yard line, they decided that there was not a consensus, and it was not time to make that move.
“(But) there was definitely a point during the weekend when from what we were hearing it sounded like a done deal that they were going to make the offer. Obviously it was contingent on Indiana to accept the offer, but they had been telling the Lakers all summer that they were going to need two picks, and if the Lakers made that offer, I think they were confident that Indiana would have accepted it.”
“As of now, their stance is ‘we want to see what Russ looks like, we want to see if we can make it work.’ And if it can’t, there’s always potentially the Indiana deal, but there’s also if a team like Chicago gets off to a rough start because of this Lonzo situation, is a DeMar DeRozan available? Is a Zach LaVine available? Is there another team that underachieves out the gate and 20, 25 games in already looks like they’re going to be a lottery team and maybe a disgruntled star becomes available? So I think the Lakers are looking more at ‘can we get a bigger chip, and can we get a better player than a Myles Turner or a Buddy Hield?’ Because I think they think that package will still be there most likely if they are willing to put the two picks on the table.”
https://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2022/10/4/23388372/nba-trade-rumors-russell-westbrook-buddy-hield-myles-turner-lakers-pacers-report |
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Inspector Gadget
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:02 pm Post subject: |
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| I have no question the Pacers deal gets done with the picks going out if Turner’s injury issues wasn’t such a red flag. |
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TheBlackMamba
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:14 pm Post subject: |
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My takeaway from the Wemby/Scoot game was that barring yet another disaster season with AD's health, we'll easily make the playoffs. Even if we're not this ideal playoff caliber team, there are going to be too many tanking teams (especially down the stretch) for us not to get spoonfed enough easy wins and push into the 45-50ish range. We should be able to take the 6-7th seed.
Tank Watch in the West:
1) Utah
2) OKC
3) SA
4) Houston
5) Sacramento (inevitable)
6) Portland (are we convinced that all their injury prone players aren't all gonna be out by the ASB?) - they'll have incentive to tank into the lottery if things go south to keep their pick |
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mad55557777
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Joined: 29 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:38 pm Post subject: |
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| TheBlackMamba wrote: | My takeaway from the Wemby/Scoot game was that barring yet another disaster season with AD's health, we'll easily make the playoffs. Even if we're not this ideal playoff caliber team, there are going to be too many tanking teams (especially down the stretch) for us not to get spoonfed enough easy wins and push into the 45-50ish range. We should be able to take the 6-7th seed.
Tank Watch in the West:
1) Utah
2) OKC
3) SA
4) Houston
5) Sacramento (inevitable)
6) Portland (are we convinced that all their injury prone players aren't all gonna be out by the ASB?) - they'll have incentive to tank into the lottery if things go south to keep their pick |
If aD can play 60 games and lebron around 65, we will be the top 6 seed for sure, but I doubt it happens.
Side note: it would be very funny to see Chet and wemby at 4/5, lol |
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RI Laker
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Posts: 7148
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| Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:39 am Post subject: |
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| I think its more a matter of the Lakers knowing we have garbage at the 5 (Bryant and Jones are value signings but do little to nothing for us) than being hot for Turner. If Turner is healthy, he could take our 5 position from one of weakness to strength. We are always talking about fit, and I have yet to see anyone claim that he would not fit. I just do not see us making moves until Dec 15th (and waiting is the right play). At that time, we will know where we stand (how good/bad we are) while players who are on the block become more valuable. |
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yinoma2001
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Posts: 119487
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| Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:15 am Post subject: |
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| RI Laker wrote: | | I think its more a matter of the Lakers knowing we have garbage at the 5 (Bryant and Jones are value signings but do little to nothing for us) than being hot for Turner. If Turner is healthy, he could take our 5 position from one of weakness to strength. We are always talking about fit, and I have yet to see anyone claim that he would not fit. I just do not see us making moves until Dec 15th (and waiting is the right play). At that time, we will know where we stand (how good/bad we are) while players who are on the block become more valuable. |
Even waiting until Dec. 15 means we play what, 20+ games? Trade deadline, we are at what, 55-60 games played?
There may be costs to waiting but for now, seems that is what the Lakers will be doing.
I'm hoping that by 20+ games, we are at least .500.
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:21 am Post subject: |
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| TheBlackMamba wrote: | My takeaway from the Wemby/Scoot game was that barring yet another disaster season with AD's health, we'll easily make the playoffs. Even if we're not this ideal playoff caliber team, there are going to be too many tanking teams (especially down the stretch) for us not to get spoonfed enough easy wins and push into the 45-50ish range. We should be able to take the 6-7th seed.
Tank Watch in the West:
1) Utah
2) OKC
3) SA
4) Houston
5) Sacramento (inevitable)
6) Portland (are we convinced that all their injury prone players aren't all gonna be out by the ASB?) - they'll have incentive to tank into the lottery if things go south to keep their pick |
Utah, SA, and Houston, yes. OKC, Sacramento, and Portland are likely to try to compete this year, though few of us expect them to be very good. Here's the catch, though: We are just as prone to collapsing due to injuries and roster flaws as those teams. We could wind up right in that pot.
If you want to talk about the 8-10 seeds, we can feel at least modestly confident that we can get there, for whatever that's worth. But if you want to talk about the 6 seed, you need to look upwards, not downwards. In no particular order, we have Phoenix, Golden State, Dallas, New Orleans, Clippers, Minnesota, Denver and Memphis. None of those teams are tanking, and all of them have good squads. One or more of those teams may have injury problems or some other dysfunction. That's the reality we are facing. The tanking teams don't get us where we need to be.
I think that we'll be better than expected. However, we have a small margin for error. We need Lebron and Davis to play 70+ games, not just 60 games. We need Westbrook to continue integrating his game into Ham's scheme. We need guys like Bryant and Nunn to bounce back. If these things don't happen, then we may be in the pot with Portland and Sacramento. So we might get the 9 seed. Yay.
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Bron2AD
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Joined: 01 Jun 2021
Posts: 8978
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| Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:27 am Post subject: |
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| RI Laker wrote: | | I think its more a matter of the Lakers knowing we have garbage at the 5 (Bryant and Jones are value signings but do little to nothing for us) than being hot for Turner. If Turner is healthy, he could take our 5 position from one of weakness to strength. We are always talking about fit, and I have yet to see anyone claim that he would not fit. I just do not see us making moves until Dec 15th (and waiting is the right play). At that time, we will know where we stand (how good/bad we are) while players who are on the block become more valuable. |
We won chip with McGee and howard. Basically Utility guys. Ad is our best center and should be closing games at 5.
Turner couldn’t fetch a single 1st and hield is negative contract but we suppose to pay 2 unprotected picks for those guys? No thanks |
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