Is the movie theatre industry dead?
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Dr. Laker
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:58 am    Post subject:

I was on my way to Tower Records this afternoon to buy an album . . . oh, wait. The music industry is dead because of streaming services.

The movie biz has been forecasting - and experiencing - a drop in theatre attendance for 15 years.

https://hillsdalecollegian.com/2021/01/the-end-of-movie-theaters-is-near/

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From 2002 to 2019 the U.S. saw a drop of nearly 350 million movie tickets sold nationwide, including a fall of 83 million from 2018 to 2019.

Clearly, the movie theater industry had been trending in the wrong direction for a long time before the blow from COVID-19.

An important contribution to the movie industry’s decline is Americans’ expanding access to technology. The global movie industry’s revenue losses from digital piracy are between $40 and $97.1 billion per year. Even back in 2018, the U.S. had an astounding 17.38 billion visits to illegal pirating sites. With most of life going virtual in 2020, the year could have only seen a massive increase in those visits, and thus a major hit to much of theaters’ target demographic.

As James Roberts, a reporter for Glide Magazine, points out, “over the last few decades, home video technology has led to previously unprecedented film presentation accessible from the comfort of one’s home.”


Studios & production companies aren't the ones taking the hits. As theatres decline, the demand for digital content has exploded. The issue (as always) for actors and people who are on revenue sharing deals is that Studios are geniuses at pencil-whipping your deals. They'll show revenue of $100M when, all sources, the gross was $400M.

My favorite example: Disney made the movie Fantasia in 1940, for $2 million dollars. In special releases, Fantasia ran for 57 weeks on Broadway, almost as long in LA and in 11 other cities. Fantasia made about $1.5 million, but it's European release was canceled during the war. Disney re-released edited versions of Fantasia in 1942 to wider audiences, then in 1946, 1956 & 1963 to worldwide audiences. As of 1968, Disney was claiming the movie was still "in the red," and didn't post its first profit until 1969 - 29 years after it was released. Even now, Disney is being vague about the numbers - acknowledging that in the US/Canada the movie made $90 Million, but no data on Europe/China/video/etc.

For years, people looked at domestic box office when the killings were made in rebroadcasting, foreign distribution, video sales/rentals (later).

The movie business will do fine, like the music industry. Delivery systems will change and movie theatres may become like record stores - few and far between - but there's plenty of stories to tell and money to make.

Been to a bookstore lately?
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ocho
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 09, 2022 11:09 am    Post subject:

The music industry isn't really analogous here. Record stores were merely a distribution channel and they were the only game in town. Your CD sounded the same whether you ordered it online or bought it at Tower Records. Seeing a movie in a theater is an entirely different experience that can't be replicated at home. There are a lot more options for entertainment now in and out of the home so of course attendance is down. TV ratings from people at home are down too. With movie theaters, I just think they'll become less ubiquitous. Fewer multiplexes but more smaller, repertory theaters with niche programming in addition to major new releases. It's a development that could actually be pretty exciting.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 09, 2022 11:13 am    Post subject:

ocho wrote:
The music industry isn't really analogous here. Record stores were merely a distribution channel and they were the only game in town. Your CD sounded the same whether you ordered it online or bought it at Tower Records. Seeing a movie in a theater is an entirely different experience that can't be replicated at home. There are a lot more options for entertainment now in and out of the home so of course attendance is down. TV ratings from people at home are down too. With movie theaters, I just think they'll become less ubiquitous. Fewer multiplexes but more smaller, repertory theaters with niche programming in addition to major new releases. It's a development that could actually be pretty exciting.


Yup, going to the movies is more analogous to restaurants and coffee shops. Sure, you can cook at home, and make your own coffee at home, but people enjoy going out.

It's also analogous to sporting events. Sure, you can watch the game at home on your 4K HDTV with a much better view than being at the stadium. You'd get much better food at home and the cost is like 1000x cheaper. Yet, people still want to go to the stadium to watch the game for the experience.

That would be analogous to going to the theater to me.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 09, 2022 11:20 am    Post subject:

Dr. Laker wrote:
I was on my way to Tower Records this afternoon to buy an album . . . oh, wait. The music industry is dead because of streaming services.

The movie biz has been forecasting - and experiencing - a drop in theatre attendance for 15 years.

https://hillsdalecollegian.com/2021/01/the-end-of-movie-theaters-is-near/

Quote:
From 2002 to 2019 the U.S. saw a drop of nearly 350 million movie tickets sold nationwide, including a fall of 83 million from 2018 to 2019.

Clearly, the movie theater industry had been trending in the wrong direction for a long time before the blow from COVID-19.

An important contribution to the movie industry’s decline is Americans’ expanding access to technology. The global movie industry’s revenue losses from digital piracy are between $40 and $97.1 billion per year. Even back in 2018, the U.S. had an astounding 17.38 billion visits to illegal pirating sites. With most of life going virtual in 2020, the year could have only seen a massive increase in those visits, and thus a major hit to much of theaters’ target demographic.

As James Roberts, a reporter for Glide Magazine, points out, “over the last few decades, home video technology has led to previously unprecedented film presentation accessible from the comfort of one’s home.”


Studios & production companies aren't the ones taking the hits. As theatres decline, the demand for digital content has exploded. The issue (as always) for actors and people who are on revenue sharing deals is that Studios are geniuses at pencil-whipping your deals. They'll show revenue of $100M when, all sources, the gross was $400M.

My favorite example: Disney made the movie Fantasia in 1940, for $2 million dollars. In special releases, Fantasia ran for 57 weeks on Broadway, almost as long in LA and in 11 other cities. Fantasia made about $1.5 million, but it's European release was canceled during the war. Disney re-released edited versions of Fantasia in 1942 to wider audiences, then in 1946, 1956 & 1963 to worldwide audiences. As of 1968, Disney was claiming the movie was still "in the red," and didn't post its first profit until 1969 - 29 years after it was released. Even now, Disney is being vague about the numbers - acknowledging that in the US/Canada the movie made $90 Million, but no data on Europe/China/video/etc.

For years, people looked at domestic box office when the killings were made in rebroadcasting, foreign distribution, video sales/rentals (later).

The movie business will do fine, like the music industry. Delivery systems will change and movie theatres may become like record stores - few and far between - but there's plenty of stories to tell and money to make.

Been to a bookstore lately?


How about some numbers of how the movie industry did while the theaters were closed?

Those might be relevant as well?
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 09, 2022 1:26 pm    Post subject:

Theres no Hollywood blockbusters or big budget movies without theaters. If theaters go the way of the dodo bird, I believe it will take a large segment of Hollywood with it.
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