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activeverb
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Joined: 17 Jun 2006
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 Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 5:58 am Post subject: |
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| postandpivot wrote: |
so ask yourself this. i you have to mapy LO 10 mil per. to make sure your lakers win the next 2(so they can three peat). and be in the serious hunt for the next 2 years after that. would you say thats worth the 10mil? i say yes. what do you say? answer the question please dont start answering your own question. |
The problem is that you are asking a fake question. If you sign Odom, it does not guarantee a ring. And, if you don't resign Odom, it does not guarantee you won't win a ring.
The real question is, Is it worth signing Odom for X dollars if that raises your chance of winning a ring by Y percent. And then you guesstimate the numbers for X and Y. |
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postandpivot
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Joined: 16 Sep 2003
Posts: 36822
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 9:17 am Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | | postandpivot wrote: |
so ask yourself this. i you have to mapy LO 10 mil per. to make sure your lakers win the next 2(so they can three peat). and be in the serious hunt for the next 2 years after that. would you say thats worth the 10mil? i say yes. what do you say? answer the question please dont start answering your own question. |
The problem is that you are asking a fake question. If you sign Odom, it does not guarantee a ring. And, if you don't resign Odom, it does not guarantee you won't win a ring.
The real question is, Is it worth signing Odom for X dollars if that raises your chance of winning a ring by Y percent. And then you guesstimate the numbers for X and Y. |
i'll ask the question again. we know good and well how great our team looks on paper with LO included. we know we still look darn good without him. but we're great with him and artest. we already won it with ariza. assuming artest is an upgrade. you have to assume we will win it again. we're purely speculating of course. so while speculating ask the question. if i told you it was 100% true, that we would win the next 2 ships in a row to call it a 3peat with LO on board for 10mil. would you be willing to sign the guy? vs if i told you we may or may not win another ship for the next few years without LO.
ANSWER THE QUESTION and stop walking around it folks. to be so afraid to answer the question.
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LAL4K3RS wrote: He(Kobe) is the white haired kung fu master that you realize is older than dirt but can still kick your arse when in a sitting position drinking a nice herbal tea. |
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Surfitall
Star Player
Joined: 12 Feb 2002
Posts: 3829
Location: South Orange County
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 9:55 am Post subject: |
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| I don't really care what they sign LO for. It's not my money. In fantasyland, if you could guarantee that the Lakers win the next 2 championships because they sign LO for $10M, of course you do it. If I'm Buss though, I realize that we don't live in fantasyland. That there are no guarantees. And to make matters worse, if they cave to LO at this point, it's going to make future negotiations potentially even more difficult because other player/agents will hold out with the belief that the Lakers will break. They are very close to being backed into a corner. It's not a negotiation if the other side doesn't budge from their original position...It's a demand. |
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Icy_wiz
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Staccatos
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Joined: 16 Jul 2002
Posts: 2416
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 11:12 am Post subject: |
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There are so many things wrong with this analysis it's hard to decide where to begin.
First off you need to start with a projection for 2009-2010 and not the Forbes 2007-2008 estimate.
Secondly and most importantly you can't deduct operating cost (luxury tax) from net profit after distribution. You would need to factor it against the gross income. Why on earth were you deducting the total luxury tax against the majority owner's profit (ignoring AEG and Magic) I have no idea.
Where did you get your playoffs expenses estimate? If you guessed at it, that could be another huge fudge factor that could be used to make your final number practically anything you want.
I'd leave this kind of accounting to folks that know what they are doing. |
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Fourplay
Star Player
Joined: 01 Oct 2002
Posts: 1832
Location: Pacoima, CA
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 12:07 pm Post subject: Re: A Breakdown of Lakers Revenue (involve LO vs Dr. Buss) |
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| initiald wrote: | Okay, it seems we have a split opinion regarding LO's contract status. The question is should Dr. Buss accept LO's demand (ie 10mil/year)?
Okay lets breakdown Lakers's revenue in 2008-2009.
Lakers Market Value: $584 million (2nd in NBA)
Team Revenue: $191 million (2nd in NBA)
Operating Income: $47.9 million (2nd in NBA)
The key area is the Operating Income. This is equivalent of team overall profit minus taxes, interest, and currency depreciation. Now, after deduct from taxes and interest, I think Lakers make a profit around $40 million.
Of these $40 million, Philip Anschutz, owner of the Staple Center, owes 30% of the Lakers' share. So this mean Dr. Buss owes about 65% with 5% from minority owner including Magic Johnson.
After doing the math, Dr. Buss racks in about $26 million in season profit. The Lakers make about $4 million per game at home in the playoff.
This playoff run, Buss racks in $48 million (12 playoff games) in bonus playoff revenue. Minus playoff operation cost and miscellaneous fee, Buss profits in about an extra $10 million. So totaling at around $36 million which is his Lakers' salary.
Currently, the Lakers' payroll is $84.6 million minus LO's contract. They are over about $15 million in luxury tax. If Dr. Buss pays LO's contract demand, then Lakers payroll is about $93.6-$94.6 million, an $25 million in luxury tax cost. This means Buss must takes out from his pocket at least $25 million.
36-25 = $11 million ==> I assume this is the amount Buss will gains in Lakers profit after all say and done. However this number does not include his own personal spending. So as far as saving goes, Buss might not makes any profit unless the Lakers get deep in the playoff. |
Did you account for Phil Jacksons 12 million? |
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Senor Mortgage
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Joined: 29 Apr 2008
Posts: 2237
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 12:26 pm Post subject: Re: A Breakdown of Lakers Revenue (involve LO vs Dr. Buss) |
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| Fourplay wrote: | | initiald wrote: | Okay, it seems we have a split opinion regarding LO's contract status. The question is should Dr. Buss accept LO's demand (ie 10mil/year)?
Okay lets breakdown Lakers's revenue in 2008-2009.
Lakers Market Value: $584 million (2nd in NBA)
Team Revenue: $191 million (2nd in NBA)
Operating Income: $47.9 million (2nd in NBA)
The key area is the Operating Income. This is equivalent of team overall profit minus taxes, interest, and currency depreciation. Now, after deduct from taxes and interest, I think Lakers make a profit around $40 million.
Of these $40 million, Philip Anschutz, owner of the Staple Center, owes 30% of the Lakers' share. So this mean Dr. Buss owes about 65% with 5% from minority owner including Magic Johnson.
After doing the math, Dr. Buss racks in about $26 million in season profit. The Lakers make about $4 million per game at home in the playoff.
This playoff run, Buss racks in $48 million (12 playoff games) in bonus playoff revenue. Minus playoff operation cost and miscellaneous fee, Buss profits in about an extra $10 million. So totaling at around $36 million which is his Lakers' salary.
Currently, the Lakers' payroll is $84.6 million minus LO's contract. They are over about $15 million in luxury tax. If Dr. Buss pays LO's contract demand, then Lakers payroll is about $93.6-$94.6 million, an $25 million in luxury tax cost. This means Buss must takes out from his pocket at least $25 million.
36-25 = $11 million ==> I assume this is the amount Buss will gains in Lakers profit after all say and done. However this number does not include his own personal spending. So as far as saving goes, Buss might not makes any profit unless the Lakers get deep in the playoff. |
Did you account for Phil Jacksons 12 million? |
I would assume that is counted in net operating income as only taxes are not included. in 07-08 I think Phil made less though, like 8-10 million. If you really wanted to you could subtract 2 million but additional championship revenue (from merchandise sales, though I know its evenly distributed), escrow payments, and other known money might be enough to offset it, at least in the scope of this napkin math which is all a rough guesstimate anyways.
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On pick and roll defense.
| 10scott10 wrote: |
and has killed them ever since jack kent cooke owned the team. i really don't think the lakers franchise is contractually even allowed to defend the high pick and roll. |
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ck4573
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Joined: 10 May 2009
Posts: 467
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 12:37 pm Post subject: |
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| There isn't any reason to automatically give Kobe 130 million, especially when we're nitpicking for 1 or 2 million with Odom. The cap will be lower next year, so no contending team can offer him close to 20 million, and that's where I would stand. |
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initiald
Star Player
Joined: 04 Jul 2009
Posts: 1625
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 1:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Staccatos wrote: | There are so many things wrong with this analysis it's hard to decide where to begin.
First off you need to start with a projection for 2009-2010 and not the Forbes 2007-2008 estimate.
Secondly and most importantly you can't deduct operating cost (luxury tax) from net profit after distribution. You would need to factor it against the gross income. Why on earth were you deducting the total luxury tax against the majority owner's profit (ignoring AEG and Magic) I have no idea.
Where did you get your playoffs expenses estimate? If you guessed at it, that could be another huge fudge factor that could be used to make your final number practically anything you want.
I'd leave this kind of accounting to folks that know what they are doing. |
First of, there is not enough information on Lakers' accounting to do an in-depth analysis. So I was force to speculate and estimate base on the info given.
Secondly, since Buss owns the majority of the share, he gets a bigger luxury bill than minority owner. With that being said, it's only a few million differences that I didn't want to factor in.
Third, it was already reported that each playoff game nets in $4 million by LA Times.
But one thing I'm confident to say is that Lakers had a profitable season for the last 10 years. This means Buss gains profit throughout his ownership. Any business person or corporate ownership will tell you that you owe a business to make money. Buss, unlike other NBA owners, doesn't have an alternative income because the Lakers are his main income. I can see a cash restriction or limitation, and help explained why Buss was so hesitating to give LO $10 million. If we have a Mark Cuban or Paul Allen, then all the financial constraint wouldn't even existed. But hey, Dr. Buss is a proven winner. He has great vision in basketball and business.
Also, the NBA revenue next season projected to drop by 8-10%. And that means Buss expected his net profit to drop further, even to negative value.
However, all the operating costs can be offset by the amount of game the Lakers play in the playoff, sponsorship, and merchandising sale because these are extra profit. Though, these are not guarantee money. In order for the Buss to make a profit or balance his income next season, I estimate that the Lakers MUST have at least 10 playoff home games. It is equivalent of advancing deep into the Western Conference Final. So in general, as long as the Lakers advance deep, Buss will be fine. But as a smart business rule, you take the highest probability of making profit, the maximum project value, which is to sign LO at 8mil. Anything higher than that, means a bad business decision. |
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golakersgo121
Franchise Player
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Posts: 11717
Location: 8 miles from Staples Center
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 2:25 pm Post subject: |
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| initiald wrote: | | Staccatos wrote: | There are so many things wrong with this analysis it's hard to decide where to begin.
First off you need to start with a projection for 2009-2010 and not the Forbes 2007-2008 estimate.
Secondly and most importantly you can't deduct operating cost (luxury tax) from net profit after distribution. You would need to factor it against the gross income. Why on earth were you deducting the total luxury tax against the majority owner's profit (ignoring AEG and Magic) I have no idea.
Where did you get your playoffs expenses estimate? If you guessed at it, that could be another huge fudge factor that could be used to make your final number practically anything you want.
I'd leave this kind of accounting to folks that know what they are doing. |
First of, there is not enough information on Lakers' accounting to do an in-depth analysis. So I was force to speculate and estimate base on the info given.
Secondly, since Buss owns the majority of the share, he gets a bigger luxury bill than minority owner. With that being said, it's only a few million differences that I didn't want to factor in.
Third, it was already reported that each playoff game nets in $4 million by LA Times.
But one thing I'm confident to say is that Lakers had a profitable season for the last 10 years. This means Buss gains profit throughout his ownership. Any business person or corporate ownership will tell you that you owe a business to make money. Buss, unlike other NBA owners, doesn't have an alternative income because the Lakers are his main income. I can see a cash restriction or limitation, and help explained why Buss was so hesitating to give LO $10 million. If we have a Mark Cuban or Paul Allen, then all the financial constraint wouldn't even existed. But hey, Dr. Buss is a proven winner. He has great vision in basketball and business.
Also, the NBA revenue next season projected to drop by 8-10%. And that means Buss expected his net profit to drop further, even to negative value.
However, all the operating costs can be offset by the amount of game the Lakers play in the playoff, sponsorship, and merchandising sale because these are extra profit. Though, these are not guarantee money. In order for the Buss to make a profit or balance his income next season, I estimate that the Lakers MUST have at least 10 playoff home games. It is equivalent of advancing deep into the Western Conference Final. So in general, as long as the Lakers advance deep, Buss will be fine. But as a smart business rule, you take the highest probability of making profit, the maximum project value, which is to sign LO at 8mil. Anything higher than that, means a bad business decision. |
I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Lakers do NOT net $4MM per playoff game. I'd advise you to look at more accurate estimates of the Lakers finances in 150+ pages thread...
Also, please keep in mind that Forbes' 07-08 numbers you are using as a reference HAVE INCLUDED pretty much the max number of the playoff games the team can OPTIMISTICALLY expect in a season. So, when you're saying that "extra playoff games offset any cost" - it's dead wrong...
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Major bullets dodged: DH12 - twice, LMA, Melo - twice, PG-13, DeMar DeRozan. Hit jackpot with DH-12 at the right time |
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Bean Brian
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Joined: 13 Sep 2008
Posts: 2316
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 3:46 pm Post subject: |
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| ck4573 wrote: | | There isn't any reason to automatically give Kobe 130 million, especially when we're nitpicking for 1 or 2 million with Odom. The cap will be lower next year, so no contending team can offer him close to 20 million, and that's where I would stand. |
Glad that you're the one running the team... |
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dopeykai
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Joined: 14 Oct 2001
Posts: 443
Location: Honolulu, HI
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 5:08 pm Post subject: |
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| golakersgo121 wrote: | | I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Lakers do NOT net $4MM per playoff game. |
For what it's worth... Poor kid is listening to ESPN...
"There's also a little extra cash in the coffers, thanks to 12 home playoff games (grossing about $4 million each for the Lakers) so far this postseason."
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/columns/story?columnist=adande_ja&page=odomariza-090613
_________________
The game's in the Refrigerator. The door's closed, the light's are out, the eggs are cooling, the butter's getting hard, and the jello's jiggling!
Chick Hearn
1916-2002
Laker's All Time MVP |
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WestwoodOne
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Posts: 321
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 5:11 pm Post subject: |
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| postandpivot wrote: | | activeverb wrote: | | postandpivot wrote: |
so ask yourself this. i you have to mapy LO 10 mil per. to make sure your lakers win the next 2(so they can three peat). and be in the serious hunt for the next 2 years after that. would you say thats worth the 10mil? i say yes. what do you say? answer the question please dont start answering your own question. |
The problem is that you are asking a fake question. If you sign Odom, it does not guarantee a ring. And, if you don't resign Odom, it does not guarantee you won't win a ring.
The real question is, Is it worth signing Odom for X dollars if that raises your chance of winning a ring by Y percent. And then you guesstimate the numbers for X and Y. |
i'll ask the question again. we know good and well how great our team looks on paper with LO included. we know we still look darn good without him. but we're great with him and artest. we already won it with ariza. assuming artest is an upgrade. you have to assume we will win it again. we're purely speculating of course. so while speculating ask the question. if i told you it was 100% true, that we would win the next 2 ships in a row to call it a 3peat with LO on board for 10mil. would you be willing to sign the guy? vs if i told you we may or may not win another ship for the next few years without LO.
ANSWER THE QUESTION and stop walking around it folks. to be so afraid to answer the question. |
YES.
Like you said with LO on board I feel we can win 2-3 titles in the next 5 years. If Bynum stays healthy and keeps improving and everyone is healthy we might win 4 or in a row. We have a chance to win more titles than Boston in the next few years. This is special time for the franchise. So Do it Mitch.
Who cares about money. It's not my money, anyway. |
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eagles nut
Star Player
Joined: 06 Jul 2001
Posts: 6240
Location: Baltimore, MD
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 5:22 pm Post subject: |
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The Lakers' revenue is immaterial. I don't care how rich you are you don't make a $10K bid for an item at auction you assess at $7K when no one else is willing or capable of paying more than $5K.
Just because a person is wealthy it doesn't mean that he should pay more than market value for an item. |
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activeverb
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Joined: 17 Jun 2006
Posts: 37470
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 5:47 pm Post subject: |
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| postandpivot wrote: | if i told you it was 100% true, that we would win the next 2 ships in a row to call it a 3peat with LO on board for 10mil. would you be willing to sign the guy? vs if i told you we may or may not win another ship for the next few years without LO.
ANSWER THE QUESTION and stop walking around it folks. to be so afraid to answer the question. |
If it was 100% sure that the Lakers would 3-peat if they put 10 million dollars in a fireplace and burned it, I am sure they would. |
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golakersgo121
Franchise Player
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Posts: 11717
Location: 8 miles from Staples Center
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 6:40 pm Post subject: |
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| dopeykai wrote: | | golakersgo121 wrote: | | I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Lakers do NOT net $4MM per playoff game. |
For what it's worth... Poor kid is listening to ESPN...
"There's also a little extra cash in the coffers, thanks to 12 home playoff games (grossing about $4 million each for the Lakers) so far this postseason."
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/columns/story?columnist=adande_ja&page=odomariza-090613 |
I hope that by now any kid understands the difference between NET $4MM and GROSS $4MM from the gate receipts (which don't go to the Lakers entirely per lease agreement).
The Lakers are NETTING about $2MM per playoff game - give or take. And, to top it off, kid's calculation has already included the "extra" revenues from the playoffs games as he is referring to 2007-08 season (when the total revenues have included the run to the Finals) 
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Major bullets dodged: DH12 - twice, LMA, Melo - twice, PG-13, DeMar DeRozan. Hit jackpot with DH-12 at the right time |
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